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Today we sold our position in FedEx (FDX) at $92.99 a share at 1:49 PM EDT in our Real-Time Alerts. We originally bought FedEx at $91.93 a share at 3:29 PM EDT on 4/18/13 and #timestamped it. We'll book our buck and continue to risk manage the FDX range within our bullish long-term TAIL view.



VIDEO: Apples To Earnings


Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough appeared on CNBC Fast Money this evening to discuss the earnings report that every investor is focused on: Apple (AAPL). The company reported Q2 earnings that beat expectations and raised their quarterly dividend, but is it still a stock worth buying? Keith says that the stock remains a momentum stock. Keith won't trade the stock until it recovers and holds his line of support at $426 a share. 


Skip ahead to 5:15 in the video for Keith's take on Apple and what he thinks of the stock post-earnings report.



In preparation for BYI's F3Q 2013 earnings release tomorrow, we’ve put together the recent pertinent forward looking company commentary.






  • "With respect to games operations…  NASCAR is one of the most anticipated games and that should be coming out in the next few months. The Hot Shot Dual Wheel… is an internal brand. We recently introduced a WAP game with a dual wheel, a big cabinet. That has just hit the floors, very small sample size, not statistically significant, but very, very good start… Pawn Stars on the premium segment, we know the reports have been very good from casinos. So overall we feel very good about our product momentum."
  • "Our market share in WAP is probably about 10% now, give or take around that and that applies to the premium segment as well. So both in the WAP and premium segment we have tremendous opportunities for growth."
  • "Our game development capacity has gone up a lot. So there is a good set of WAP and premium titles that are being worked on now that will hit the market at a steady rate. And also we've become much better at handling brands and licenses, and when you do a good job with games like GREASE and Michael Jackson, what tends to happen is the next set of negotiations tend to become easier.
  • In the June, July, August timeframe we have a whole lot of new titles that come from these diverse studios and third-party partners."
  • [GREASE AND MJ] "Both of them beat that target of 750 very comfortably; so both of them did very well."
  • "In Canada VLT we were awarded two separate contracts for about 2,200 units. About half of those were sold in the first half of fiscal 2013, probably finish up the rest of that in the second half of the fiscal 2013." 
  • "Within Illinois, we have contracts in place for 4,000 units. We've sold, a little under 600 so far through December, probably take about two years to complete those with the bars and taverns getting licensed throughout the state. I think the market overall is probably about 15,000 to 18,000 VLTs, assuming that Chicago does not opt in."
  • "So Italy is not going to be a major needle-mover for us in the near term, but it's a very good market for us to be in the long-term. So that's an investment we are making for our long-term, because that's a significant market that we are committed to."
  • "The replacement cycle continues to improve; albeit at a measured pace, probably about 55,000 units replaced in calendar 2012. I think most people in your shoes think that it probably goes to about 60,000 in calendar 2013, which make sense to us."
  • "The other opportunity for us in game equipment margins is conversion kits as we build out a bigger presence of the newer cabinets, the video versions that should give us an opportunity longer term to sell more conversion kits into that footprint."
  • "As we continue to generate significant free cash flow, the best use beyond some of the smaller tuck-in acquisitions that Ramesh talked about earlier is to buyback our stock and return capital to shareholders and we've been doing that for about 21 quarters now and don't expect any significant changes in that strategy."


  • "Maintenance revenues for the quarter were a record…. as we continue to grow the number of units connected to our systems and the average maintenance revenue per connection. Sequentially, recent conversions of Class II systems to traditional SDS systems, which reduced our centrally-determined system unit count in Gaming Operations, drove additional maintenance revenue growth."
  • "We had approximately $126 million available under our current board-authorized share repurchase plan."
  • "Even with G2E expenses in both quarters, which approximated $2 million, we were able to increase our operating margins to 24% versus 20% in the prior year"
  • "We will be launching two additional titles, Hot Shot Progressive and NASCAR on the Cash Connection link during the coming months."
  • "We expect Tiki Magic, the much anticipated follow-up title to the very successful Cash Wizard theme to launch later this quarter."
  • "During the quarter, we announced an agreement to provide 650 VLTs to WCLC Canada and expect to begin shipping the initial tranche during the March quarter."
  • "International Games sales have been a disappointment once again… We have multiple product development initiatives currently underway focused on these international markets… We remain confident such efforts will pay off with improved International Games sales in the future."
  • "On the Systems front, we expect fiscal 2013 to be our best year ever with increasingly visible backlog strength for the quarters ahead."
  • "Our Cloud-based Mobile platform offering a non-wagering portfolio of content and services continues its strong momentum and has now grown to more six million users. Thanks to the measurable return on investment these mobile applications are generating for our customers, we are seeing significant growth both in new customer acquisitions, which has grown by more than 50% year-over-year to over 75% now and in the delivery of new applications and features for existing customers."
  • "For the quarter… we had some unusual SG&A expenses to the tune of about $2.9 million."
  • "With respect to the Atlantic Lottery… somewhere around 1,200 to 1,300 of those shipped, so the remainder of those will likely come into this fiscal year."

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Exploring Emerging Markets

Takeaway: The dollar is surging, commodity prices are tumbling. Is Emerging Market investing a one-trick pony whose time has come and gone?

Submerging Markets: A Hedgeye Exclusive Presentation

Hedgeye Senior Analyst Darius Dale presented an exhaustive report in an institutional conference call today.  “Emerging Market Crises: Identifying, Contextualizing and Navigating Key Risks in the Next Cycle” drew an enthusiastic response from our global investor client base, many of whom run “long-only” mutual funds, investment vehicles that are contractually required to always be fully invested, owning a portfolio of stocks drawn from pre-determined market or geographical sectors.  These long-only investors are often among the first to suffer when there is uncertainty in the marketplace.  Put yourself in the position of a long-only manager when volatility rocks the boat, all you can do is hold on for dear life and hope the storm passes.  In times like these, Hedgeye’s Macro work becomes critical to plotting a course through turbulent waters.


Emerging Markets – What Are The Risks?

Perhaps the overarching risk in EM investing is the shift in attitude that leads investors, first to chase investments they would normally shun, then to suddenly shun investments they recently adored.  Markets reflect mass perceptions, and when the mass of investors fear a further decline in formerly-stable markets – as occurred in the US markets in the depths of the financial crisis – they seek refuge in hopeful markets.  This may not appear highly intellectual or disciplined – in fact, it’s not.  But it is the way many investors behave.  “Many” investors becomes a statistic, and a string of statistics establishes a trend.  Before you know it, the “smart” money identifies the trend and hops on the bandwagon.  


In short, much of what we have seen in major global moves in asset prices and stock markets has been the result of waves of panic sweeping across large swathes of the investment community.


For this you got an Ivy League MBA?

There’s a critical point to keep in mind when assessing risks in global markets.  There are huge pockets of vulnerability across the EM space, but exposure to the possibility of a crisis does not guarantee that there will be a crisis.  As a 2010 IMF report on emerging market crises states, “Crises require some triggering event.”  What we shall call “Dale’s Corollary” is the critical observation that Crises tend to start when investors apply developed market rigor to analyzing emerging markets.

It’s impossible to put too much emphasis on this point.  “Hot Money” is driven by the hunt for yield.  In global terms this translates into investors seeking opportunity in foreign markets – what’s known as Private Capital Flows.


As interest rates on US Treasuries declined, and as investment returns dropped across the developed world in the aftermath of the financial crisis, portfolio managers and investment analysts gladly applied different standards to analyzing the Emerging Economies, leading to a global arc of cross-border investment driven by a perception of strong commodity demand.  The stark message here is that – as Hedgeye’s Macro team has been saying – maybe it was all just the Dollar all along.  As Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough frequently observes: “If you get the Dollar right, you’ll get a lot of other things right.”  Dale’s analysis indicates the notion of global commodity demand may be a fantasy.  The twin sibling of the chimera of perpetually-increasing house prices that drove the US economy up, up, up… over the tippy-top and into Mr. Greenspan’s executive toilet. 


Four Pillars of EM Wisdom

Dale’s presentation targets a complex set of risks in emerging markets and points to drivers of EM vulnerability.  


For starters, EM stock markets are largely tied to local commodities, and Dale measures levels of beta market volatility associated with this commodity exposure.  Continued unwinding of the global commodity bubble could be a very powerful tail wagging such dogs as Russia (70% volatility exposure to commodity prices), and Brazil (43%).


Dale then presents the “Hedgeye Macro Emerging Market Crisis Risk Index,” constructed on four “Pillars,” each measuring ten key economic indicators, including: 

  • Pillar I: External Sector – Currency exposure, including exchange rate and foreign currency reserves on hand; the costs of foreign trade, including commodities exposure; and the costs of short-term debt.  
  • Pillar II: Fiscal Policy – Sovereign debt; tax policy.
  • Pillar III: Financial Sector – Bank capital adequacy; cash and cash equivalents in the marketplace; real rates of interest; stock market.
  • Pillar IV: Political and Regulatory Risk – Ease of doing business; enforceability of contracts; unemployment; measures of inequality.

Taking previous EM crises as a guide, Dale’s work applied this rigorous analysis to 29 EM countries, as represented primarily in the 21-nation MSCI Emerging Markets Index.  Ranking these nations from lowest to highest risk, Dale found different Pillars, unsurprisingly, had different weights.  


A House of BRICS

We’ll use the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) to demonstrate how Dale’s complex analysis presents these risks.  It looks like the third Little Piggy may finally be out of luck – not because the wolf is any stronger, but Dale has found a design flaw in the BRICS.  Dale’s Pillars measure risk across the 29-nation sample, with countries ranked by how many standard deviations they fall either above or below the average for those metrics.  


In Pillar I, Balance of Payments and Currency Risk, the high-risk BRICS countries are South Africa, Brazil and Russia, while India and China fall well below the mean.  


Pillar II, Fiscal Sustainability Risk, sees Russia and China as rather safe, with South Africa only marginally safer than the average.  India and Brazil, however, ranked as the third and second most risky on this metric, only topped by Egypt.

Pillar III, Financial Crisis Risk, ranks Brazil and Russia at below average risk, but the More Risk side of the chart features India and South Africa, and is topped by China, which comes out a whopping two standard deviations above the norm of the 29-nation sample.


Pillar IV, Political and Regulatory Risk, is led by India (1.8 standard deviations above average), followed by South Africa and Brazil, while Russia and China are relatively lower risk on those metrics.


Finally, three of the BRICS nations are among the top 4 for Aggregate Risk: India is highest aggregate risk, while South Africa and Brazil are at third and fourth places – the second slot is occupied by Egypt, which we think says rather a lot about The Company You Keep.  Dale singles out India, Brazil and South Africa as “outliers,” meaning they are “more than averagely more than average” risky.


But wait – there’s more!


The Elephant In The Emerging Room



Need we say more?  All right, then we will.


China occupies a dominant position in the global marketplace – and in most investors’ minds.  Dale devoted an entire second half of his presentation to the question “Will China Blow?”  (Spoiler alert: the answer is “We have no idea, but we have some important observations that can tell you what to watch for.”)


“China sticks out like a sore thumb on the Hedgeye Emerging Market Financial Crisis Index,” says Dale.  And, while we remind you that Vulnerability does not mean a crisis is certain, it’s one heck of a wake-up call.


How often have you heard stock market pundits enthusiastic about the bottomless well of Chinese demand?  “There’s over a billion of ‘em!” they would chortle.  “That’s a lot of cell phones! (TV sets, automobiles, athletic shoes, personal care products… or whatever it is you’re touting…)”


Says Dale’s analysis, “Oops…!” 


A number of factors point to a dramatic shrinking of Chinese demand:

  • Financial repression has left little-to-no place for Chinese savers to put their money.
  • Artificially low prices of basic inputs such as water, gas and labor have allowed state-sponsored enterprises to fuel systematic over-investment – despite being much less profitable than private businesses.
  • Over-investment creates excess capacity throughout the economy, leading to potential maturity mismatches and nonperforming loans – on and off bank balance sheets
  • … China’s expansion of credit is greater than any expansion in any “bubble” economy in recent decades.  By a lot.

Chinese savers have no place to get what used to be a normal rate of return on their hard-earned money (sounds like your money market account, doesn’t it?) and have taken to investing in risky off-book trusts and wealth management products structured by Chinese banks.  These vehicles operate like blind pools, investing deposits in high-yield projects.  China’s own minister of finance has publicly called these trusts “Ponzi Schemes.”


Other potentially massive risks include regional funding shortfalls.  Local governments are not allowed to issue their own debt, and so they rely on land sales to plug funding gaps.  Some of these sales are of disputed property, which may lead to social unrest as China’s social activist bloggers continue to gain traction.


What’s The Endgame?

Dale says China has implemented – or announced – a number of key reforms.  Among those either in the works or on the launch pad:

  • Bank deposit reform, including interest rate liberalization and some form of deposit insurance
  • Deepening of financial markets, including increased supervision, better central bank intervention policies, and financial crisis policy
  • Currency policy, including a looser exchange rate trading range and more flexibility on dealing across China’s borders
  • Capital account policy, allowing freedom of investment to attract portfolio flows, but also to permit Chinese to invest offshore.

Conclusion: Read My Lips

China’s financial and political system is, in the words of one senior official, “unbalanced, unstable, uncoordinated, and unsustainable.”  But Dale reminds us, this situation will only turn into a full-blown crisis if there is a triggering event.  Dale says China’s economic policies are well suited to address the myriad problems facing the nation.


So, can they do it?  


China has accomplished most of the easier reforms.  The bad news is, that still leaves the hard ones.  Dale points to historical precedents, and to recent analysis by the IMF, that indicate China can thread this needle, but he cautions this situation is so complex there is no way to predict the final outcome. 


Still, Dale says policies adopted by the Party all point to the right solutions – if they can be implemented both effectively, and on time.  Says Dale, “Chinese officials almost always do what they say.”  That should make for a refreshing change while we bite our nails waiting for the next financial crisis.  


For more on Darius Dale’s work on China – and more on Hedgeye’s Macro coverage – please go to  www.hedgeye.com.


We remember, vividly, the Street writing Brinker’s obituary in October 2012.


Specifically, it was October 24th and Brinker had just reported its 1QFY13 earnings.  The company reported a 23% increase in EPS on 2.8% Chili’s comp but that was not good enough.  The industry was experiencing a sales slowdown in September 2012 and was continuing into October.  Apparently, at the time, it was game over for Chili’s and the stock ended up down nearly 10% that day, closing at $30.00.


Fast forward to the just reported 3QFY13 earnings call the stock is now $37 and trading down on good volume all because Chili’s lost ground to the Knapp Track bench mark in the month of March.  Is the Brinker story over again for the second time in 6 months?


We need to ask the same question today as in October 2012: Has anything changed on the margin that has cause the story to change for EAT?

  1. Have the competition responded to counter the Chili’s sales momentum?
  2. Have the critical financial metrics of the company slowed?
  3. Did management use weather as an excuse to justify the slowing performance?
  4. Has management’s tone changed toward the future goals?
  5. Did guidance change?


Some of these questions are more difficult to answer but the most important ones for the long-term TAIL thesis, 2, 4 and 5, can be answered with resounding "no"s. The March results were certainly weaker than we were looking for.  Specific details on the quarter were positive, however, with the company reiterating its FY2010 promise to double EPS by the end of FY14 and emphasizing a recovery from initial operational difficulties around the roll-out of pizza in its Chili’s stores. 


While many on the sell-side view Brinker with more than a little skepticism, perhaps because of disappointments in the pre-FY10 era, we believe the current management team has earned a heightened level of credibility (particularly versus some competing management teams).  The company’s guidance of roughly $2.35 in FY13 EPS versus consensus $2.32 implies, to us, that the earnings power of the company has not deteriorated. We retain a positive bias on Brinker over the longer-term TAIL.



Howard Penney

Managing Director


Rory Green

Senior Analyst

S&P 500: Staying The Course

The S&P 500 is up +10.7% year-to-date and is outperforming other asset classes including fixed-income (bonds) and commodities by a wide margin. Comparatively, the CRB Commodities Index, which measures 19 different commodities, is down nearly -6% so far this year. One of the most widely traded bond ETFs out there, the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), is up only +1.19% for the same time period.


S&P 500: Staying The Course - SPXYTD today

Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.