Volatility And The S&P 500

We can examine volatility via the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and determine how to trade the S&P 500 (SPY) based on where both indices are at in present time. For instance, last Friday (as you can see in the chart below), the VIX was overbought and the S&P 500 was oversold. When that happens, we'll be looking for an entry point to buy the S&P 500. Today, we see the complete opposite happening; the S&P 500 is up and the VIX is down, so we may be looking at a pullback in S&P soon.


Volatility And The S&P 500 - VIXSPXWORKING

VIDEO: Don’t Call The Top


Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough appeared on CNBC’s Fast Money Halftime Report today to discuss the market swooning over last week’s dismal jobs data. Keith bought the S&P 500 after the data on a pullback and discusses how buying dips on the S&P 500 and sticking with a process is the way to go. People who  try to call the top of the market will ultimately be proved wrong and need to realize there’s a bull market in the US dollar and US stocks and a bear market in commodities.


Fast forward to 7:45 into the video for Keith’s take on the market.


HOUSING: Strong Mortgage Volume

For the first half of 2013, expectations for mortgage volumes were on the low end of the spectrum. Today's Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) numbers downplay the underlying strength of the housing market. Although total mortgage volume for the first quarter of 2013 dropped 6% quarter-over-quarter, it remains up 6.8% on a year-over-year basis. The same goes for purchase and refinancing volumes, which are up 14.4% and 8% year-over-year, respectively.



HOUSING: Strong Mortgage Volume - HOUSING6



Despite a slight increase in rates (up 0.1%) for Federal Housing Authority loans on April 1st, overall demand remains strong. Housing data continues to show improvement and low mortgage rates should help motivate buyers from both an affordability and action standpoint. 


HOUSING: Strong Mortgage Volume - HOUSING1


HOUSING: Strong Mortgage Volume - HOUSING2


HOUSING: Strong Mortgage Volume - HOUSING3


HOUSING: Strong Mortgage Volume - HOUSING4


HOUSING: Strong Mortgage Volume - HOUSING5


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This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

Brian McGough On JCP


Hedgeye Retail Sector Head Brian McGough appeared on CNBC yesterday to discuss the ousting of embattled JCPenney (JCP) CEO Ron Johnson. McGough was one of the first people on Wall Street to note that the timing of the firing was a bad choice for JCPenney as it had yet to fully execute on Johnson’s plan of “stores within a store.” The company is also low on capital and the decision to bring former CEO Mike Ullman back into the mix was confusing at best noted McGough. You can watch Brian’s full appearance on CNBC in the clip posted above. Fast forward to the first minute of the video for his take on JCP.


McGough was also quoted extensively throughout various news outlets yesterday; we’ve rounded up the various stories for you to check out:


J.C. Penney board comes under fire for CEO switch (via Reuters) 


Wall Street hits record high (via TVNZ)


JCPenney Board Of Directors Gets Call To Resign After CEO Ouster (via HuffPo)


J.C. Penney ousts CEO, Mike Ullman returns (via The Star Online)


Did J.C. Penney Pick The Exact Wrong Time To Fire Ron Johnson? (via Forbes)


Big News: J.C. Penney Company, Inc, Alcoa Inc. (via Valued Business News)


Penney same-store sales down 10% in 1Q, Dow Jones reports (via Chicago-Tribune)


J.C. Penney ousts CEO Ron Johnson (via MarketWatch)












This note was originally published April 09, 2013 at 13:37 in Gaming

  • We’ve documented mass hold climbing higher over the years.  VIP hold has also been trending higher lately above the theoretical win rate of 2.85% and closer to 2.96%.
  • March junket hold on a trailing twelve-month basis (TTM) was 3.21%, about 20bps higher than the TTM hold in January 2010.  If we take into account direct play, adjusted VIP hold on a TTM was 3.00% in March, compared with a 2.80% adjusted VIP hold TTM in January 2010.
  • While mass volumes have been resilient so far in the face of higher hold, it remains to be seen how the high hold will affect VIP volume growth.  The good news is that comps are relatively easy for the back half of the year.




If you'll recall, Hold (or Hold Percentage) is the measure of the amount of money a casino table game keeps from the total amount of money that is dropped into the table game's cash box.

Morning Reads From Our Sector Heads

Keith McCullough (CEO):


Singapore Downtown Mansion on Sale at Record $242 Million (via Bloomberg)


Swan Backs Japan-to-U.S. Stimulus as G-20 Meets, Yen Slides (via Bloomberg)


Todd Jordan (GLL):


U.S. says Okada's Universal is target of criminal bribery probe (via Reuters)


Rob Campagnino (Consumer Staples):


Herbalife Auditor KPMG Resigns As Partner At Firm Is Fired For Providing Inside Information (via Business Insider)


Britain's Asda says finds horse drug in corned beef (via Reuters)


Tom Tobin (Healthcare):


Observation v. Inpatient? Amid audits, hospitals struggle to decide (via


Hospitals: The cost of admission (via 60 Minutes)


Jay Van Sciver (Industrials):


MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Reports Results For Its Fiscal 2013 Second Quarter (via MSC Direct)


Josh Steiner (Financials):


JPM on whale of a roll (via NY Post)


Scant Relief On Foreclosure Payments (via WSJ)


Kevin Kaiser (Energy):


Exxon Mobil Is Found Neligent in New Hampshire MTBE Use (via Bloomberg)


Brian McGough (Retail):


Rising Costs, Riots Squeeze Bangladesh (via WWD)

Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.46%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.35%