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XLF: Holding The Line

The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) has been able to hold above its TRADE line of support at $17.93 for nearly a month. Currently, it's attempting to overcome its line of resistance on the TRADE duration at $18.33. Our macro team shows 1.7% upside to TRADE resistance and 0.6% downside to TRADE support.

 

XLF: Holding The Line - XLF1


The Destruction Of The Yen

Since the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced its $1.4 trillion stimulus plan to boost the economy, the value of the Japanese Yen has depreciated in value considerably, falling -5.8% since last Monday. So far, their plan to artificially inflate the stock market is working, with the Nikkei 225 Index up +26% year-to-date. Following in the footsteps of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke seems to be the plan in Japan. The question is: how low will the Yen go before it's been burned one too many times?

 

The Destruction Of The Yen - YENyo


Trouble In Taiwan

Taiwan's Taiex Index fell another -2.4% last night post-opening after a holiday on April 4 and April 5 as fears intensified over the Chinese bird flu epidemic. The decline was the biggest drop in 10 months in the market and comes on the heels of Chinese officials stating that they can contain the new strain of avian flu. The World Health Organization is paying close attention to the situation and has said there had now been 21 human cases of the H7N9 flu with six deaths associated with the epidemic. 

 

Trouble In Taiwan - TAIWAN1


Early Look

daily macro intelligence

Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

End Of The Food Stamp Gravy Train?

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, aka Food Stamps), saw one of the largest month-over-month declines in participation during January. While it may be due to policy changes in North Carolina, in general, it appears that people are beginning to jettison the program from their lives. This comes after the SNAP participation rate hit a 30-year high in late 2012, as people without jobs and those who had given up on looking for a job jumped on the bandwagon.

 

End Of The Food Stamp Gravy Train? - foodstamps1

 

As more people drop out of the labor force in America and latch on to SNAP and Supplemental Security Income (SSI), the American economy will suffer a decrease in tax revenue as well as other additional problems.

 

End Of The Food Stamp Gravy Train? - foodstamps3

 

End Of The Food Stamp Gravy Train? - foodstamps2


MARCH IN MACAU: DETAILED PROPERTY ANALYSIS

As you already know, the market grew 25.4% YoY to a new record GGR of US$3.9 billion or HK$30.4 billion.  Overall, a great month – not quite as good as the headline 25% growth because of high hold.  However, we had heard all along that hold was running high so investors shouldn’t be surprised.

 

Here are our main takeaways:

 

MACAU

  • As we thought, VIP hold definitely played a role in the March strength.  We estimate that including direct play, VIP hold was 3.15% versus a normalized 2.96% and 2.79% in March of 2012.
  • Had VIP hold been normal this March, YoY growth in GGR would’ve been 20%.  With normal VIP hold in both periods, GGR growth was 16%.
  • MGM and MPEL were the only operators to hold low in VIP during the month
  • Mass market growth continued its blistering pace, up 30% YoY, consistent with the last 9 months
  • VIP volume growth grew its fastest in almost a year at 10%, surprising since hold was so high which usually dampens play
  • Overall market VIP hold continues to tick up over time – obviously a positive for concessionaires
  • Slots were disappointing at only 7% growth

LVS

  • Another above trend Mass market share month
  • Overall market share was in-line with recent trend
  • VIP Hold was higher than normal in both March of 2013 and 2012 but even higher in March 2013
  • On a YoY basis, LVS was the top dog with GGR growth of 59%

MPEL

  • MPEL actually held below normal in March 2013 and well below March of 2012
  • Despite the low hold, GGR increased 20% YoY
  • Mass was up a whopping 37%
  • VIP volume grew the most in a year and a half
  • Market share consistent with trend but Mass was above
  • Adjusted EBITDA in Q1 should handily beat estimates

WYNN

  • In terms of luck, Wynn was a clear standout with its highest VIP hold in a year and a half compared to its lowest over the same period
  • Despite a 15% YoY increase in GGR, VIP volume actually declined 22%, the highest one month decline in 4 years
  • Indeed, VIP volume share was its lowest ever
  • Mass was solid, up 20% as Mass share was slightly above recent trend

MGM

  • MGM got clocked on VIP with its lowest hold in over 3 years
  • Yet VIP revenue actually increased 8% on a 37% increase in volume
  • Mass grew a strong 33% YoY and Mass share ticked up considerably
  • Aside from low hold which drove a low market share, this was a strong month for MGM Macau

GALAXY

  • Galaxy held above normal and higher than last year
  • Mass growth was once again strong at 39% but below the trend of recent months
  • Mass share remained consistent with trend

SJM

  • Big jump in market share was solely driven by very high VIP hold
  • Mass market share fell to its lowest level ever at 25%

Expert Call Today: Psychological Drivers of the Global Economy

The Hedgeye Macro Team, led by CEO Keith McCullough and DOR Daryl Jones, will be hosting an expert conference call entitled, "Behavioral Markets: Quantifying the Psychological Drivers of the Global Economy" today, April 8th at 11:00am EDT featuring Dr. Richard Peterson.

 

 

CALL DETAILS 

  • Date: Monday, April 8th at 11:00am EDT
  • Toll Free Number: 
  • Direct Dial Number: 
  • Conference Code: 141433#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE (If you are having trouble downloading the slides please email sales@hedgeye.com)

 

CALL OBJECTIVE

Using quantitative analytics of global information news flow and social media, we identify the sentiments and macro themes that drive asset prices.  We then discuss the implications of today's trends in equities, currencies, and commodities.

 

 

TOPICS WILL INCLUDE 

  • How specific types of information alter the brain's information processing
  • Techniques for quantifying sentiment in information flow
  • How sentiment predictably impacts prices of equities, currencies, and commodities
  • Where instability creates global buying opportunities
  • Currency trust and uncertainty - review AUD, CAD, and JPY
  • Commodities - current and upcoming environment
  • Equities - the relationship between investor anger and future prices

 

ABOUT RICHARD PETERSON, M.D.

From developing quantitative models to imaging the brains of investors, Dr. Peterson has spent his career at the intersection of mind and the markets. Dr. Peterson is Managing Director of the MarketPsych Group of companies comprising MarketPsych Data (financial sentiment data derived from news and social media), MarketPsych (behavioral economics consulting and training), and MarketPsy Capital (quantitative psychology-based asset management).

 

In the educational field Dr. Peterson developed popular financial personality tests, published widely in academic journals and textbooks, and is an associate editor of the Journal of Behavioral Finance. His book, "Inside the Investor's Brain" (Wiley, 2007) was called "outstanding" and "a seminal text" on investment psychology by Barrons. That and his second book "MarketPsych" (Wiley, 2010) (with Frank Murtha, PhD) were both named top financial books of the year by Kiplinger's.

 

Dr. Peterson received cum laude Electrical Engineering (B.S.), Arts (B.A.), and Doctor of Medicine degrees (M.D.) from the University of Texas. He performed postdoctoral neuroeconomics research at Stanford University and is Board-certified in Psychiatry. He lives in the New York City area with his family.

 


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.61%
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