As you already know, the market grew 25.4% YoY to a new record GGR of US$3.9 billion or HK$30.4 billion. Overall, a great month – not quite as good as the headline 25% growth because of high hold. However, we had heard all along that hold was running high so investors shouldn’t be surprised.
Here are our main takeaways:
MACAU
- As we thought, VIP hold definitely played a role in the March strength. We estimate that including direct play, VIP hold was 3.15% versus a normalized 2.96% and 2.79% in March of 2012.
- Had VIP hold been normal this March, YoY growth in GGR would’ve been 20%. With normal VIP hold in both periods, GGR growth was 16%.
- MGM and MPEL were the only operators to hold low in VIP during the month
- Mass market growth continued its blistering pace, up 30% YoY, consistent with the last 9 months
- VIP volume growth grew its fastest in almost a year at 10%, surprising since hold was so high which usually dampens play
- Overall market VIP hold continues to tick up over time – obviously a positive for concessionaires
- Slots were disappointing at only 7% growth
LVS
- Another above trend Mass market share month
- Overall market share was in-line with recent trend
- VIP Hold was higher than normal in both March of 2013 and 2012 but even higher in March 2013
- On a YoY basis, LVS was the top dog with GGR growth of 59%
MPEL
- MPEL actually held below normal in March 2013 and well below March of 2012
- Despite the low hold, GGR increased 20% YoY
- Mass was up a whopping 37%
- VIP volume grew the most in a year and a half
- Market share consistent with trend but Mass was above
- Adjusted EBITDA in Q1 should handily beat estimates
WYNN
- In terms of luck, Wynn was a clear standout with its highest VIP hold in a year and a half compared to its lowest over the same period
- Despite a 15% YoY increase in GGR, VIP volume actually declined 22%, the highest one month decline in 4 years
- Indeed, VIP volume share was its lowest ever
- Mass was solid, up 20% as Mass share was slightly above recent trend
MGM
- MGM got clocked on VIP with its lowest hold in over 3 years
- Yet VIP revenue actually increased 8% on a 37% increase in volume
- Mass grew a strong 33% YoY and Mass share ticked up considerably
- Aside from low hold which drove a low market share, this was a strong month for MGM Macau
GALAXY
- Galaxy held above normal and higher than last year
- Mass growth was once again strong at 39% but below the trend of recent months
- Mass share remained consistent with trend
SJM
- Big jump in market share was solely driven by very high VIP hold
- Mass market share fell to its lowest level ever at 25%
