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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 4, 2013

As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 30 points or 0.49% downside to 1546 and 1.44% upside to 1576.       










  • YIELD CURVE: 1.58 from 1.58
  • VIX closed at 14.21 1 day percent change of 11.19%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: BoE interest rate announcement
  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts Y/y, March (prior 7.0%)
  • 7:30am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, April (prior 47.1)
  • 7:45am: ECB interest rate announcement
  • 8:30am: ECB’s Draghi holds news conference on interest rates
  • 8:30am: Init Jobless Claims, Mar 30, est. 353k (prior 357k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, March 31 (prior -34.4)
  • 10:30am: Fed’s Bernanke speaks on economy
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.25b-$1.75b in 2036-2043 sector
  • 12:30pm: Fed’s George speaks in El Reno, Okla.
  • 5pm: Fed’s Yellen speaks in Washington


    • Carlyle Group Managing Director David Rubenstein, Bloomberg CEO Dan Doctoroff, 32 Advisors CEO Robert Wolf, Asst. to the Pres. Michael Froman among panelists at Export-Import Bank annual conf., 8:45am
    • Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen, AOL CEO Tim Armstrong speak at Society of American Business Editors and Writers conf.
    • CSIS hosts forum on financial reform in China, with Dep. Asst Treasury Sec Robert Dohner, IMF’s Markus Rodlauer, Institute of Intl Finance MD Timothy Adams, 2pm
    • SEC holds closed meeting on injunctive actions, administrative and enforcement proceedings, 3:45pm
    • Treasury, IRS discuss proposed regulations on implementation of additional Medicare tax, 10am
    • U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission holds hearing on political, and economic drivers of China’s maritime disputes in east, south China seas, 9am


  • Facebook said to plan Android phone push to boost ad sales
  • BOJ doubles monthly bond purchases to meet inflation target in 2 yrs
  • Lululemon chief product officer to leave; reaffirms 1Q view
  • Primary dealers are losing influence in U.S.
  • British Airways parent IAG to buy 18 extra Boeing 787 Dreamliners
  • Cerberus said to tap Goldman, JPMorgan, BofA for property IPO
  • GM board calls emergency meeting at Germany’s Opel: Bild
  • Deutsche Bank said to be probed over hidden losses in crisis
  • Vodafone restates results in change to accounting for ventures
  • Euro-area March services output shrinks more than estimated
  • ECB, BoE to leave benchmark rates unchanged today, according to est.
  • North Korea warns U.S. it approved ‘lighter’ nuclear attack
  • Chinese Army on ‘high alert’ over North Korea: DPA
  • New bird flu strain kills third person in China as cases spread


    • International Speedway (ISCA) 7am, $0.36
    • RPM International (RPM) 7:30am, $0.06
    • WD-40 (WDFC) 4pm, $0.56


  • Gold Slumps Toward Bear Market as Investors Reduce ETP Holdings
  • Iron Ore Bear Market Looms as Supply Swamps Demand: Commodities
  • Brent Rises After Closing at Four-Month Low; WTI Little Changed
  • Barclays Oil-Research Head Horsnell Said to Leave After 10 Years
  • Copper Reaches Eight-Month Low as Services Contraction Worsens
  • Sugar Climbs on Speculation of More Ethanol Demand; Coffee Gains
  • Soybeans Drop on Concern Bird Flu in China May Limit Feed Use
  • ETF Securities Says Investors Move from Gold to Cyclical Assets
  • Macquarie Says China Bonded Copper Stocks Fell 100,000t in Q1
  • Shenzhen Is First in China With June Start for Emissions Trading
  • Norway’s Oil Future Seen With Ice-Free Arctic’s Barrels: Energy
  • New Bird Flu Kills Third Person in China as Cases Rise to 10
  • Copper Heading Toward June Low of $7,219.50: Technical Analysis
  • Drought-Hit Coffee Area in Vietnam Forecast to Receive Rains






















The Hedgeye Macro Team











FNP: Debt Free FNP?

Takeaway: The potential sale of Lucky is a new and positive change. FNP would only be doing this if the price was a steep premium = a debt free FNP.

This note was originally published April 03, 2013 at 11:45 in Retail


One of the usual ‘Juicy Coture is on the block’ stories just hit the tape regarding FNP, but the unusual component is that it had Lucky Brand attached to it as well.


While the market wants to see a sale of Juicy, we’d probably rather see FNP hang on to it for another quarter or two as we think that it’s in the process of bottoming, after which it will likely command a higher price.


Lucky, however, has better momentum right now around its product line than it has had in years as FNP parlays best practices learned from Kate over to Lucky (handbag line, brand extentions, etc..,).


Our best estimate is that Juicy will attract somewhere in the neighborhood of $200mm-$250mm (about 0.4x-0.5x sales). But for the company to let Lucky go at a point when momentum is building, we think that it would only do so at a premium valuation. 7x EBITDA implies around $150mm, which we think is the minimum Lucky would sell for.


We can speculate all day about the precise multiples that these two would sell for, but the truth is that only people involved in the transaction (which we’re not) should know. But what we can safely point out is that is that FNP ended the year with $325mm in net debt, and even if our estimates are high by 20%, the net proceeds of a deal would leave FNP debt free.


The company has already gone from being a debt-laden, low margin, low asset turning portfolio of bad brands to being one of the best growth stories in retail. Adding a debt-free element with the sale of its lowest-margin and lowest RNOA divisions only makes the story that much more attractive.


FNP has been our favorite name, and its still one of our top three. Despite the run, if you have a 12-month time horizon we'd resist the temptation to peel away today in the high teens. 


FNP: Debt Free FNP? - fnp1

Housing: Boosting Outdoor Power Equipment

The rebound in the housing market that we've experienced since January has been a positive economic indicator and a catalyst for driving the US equity market higher. It's also a meaningful indicator of where outdoor power equipment sales are headed; the more new homes and homeowners, the more power equipment they'll need to keep their lawns and yards tidy. Briggs and Stratton (BGG) remains one of our favorite long ideas in the space.


Housing: Boosting Outdoor Power Equipment - USbuildingpermits

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Goldpocalypse Now

Gold (GLD) is currently down $12.70 (-0.95%) to $1559/oz after a massive sell off that saw GLD drop -3.27% over the last seven days.This comes on the heels of Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough mentioning that the sell-side would be turning bearish on gold this week as the wave of downgrades begin to emerge from analysts' desks. Things will continue to get worse for the precious metal as the US dollar continues to appreciate in value and as large institutional asset managers (mutual funds and hedge funds) sell off their positions.


Goldpocalypse Now - GLD

ECB on Hold; EUR Pressured; Slovenia Scares

Takeaway: We expect no change on Thursday from the ECB in interest rates as the data is “accommodative”. EUR/USD continued downside support alongside Italian election uncertainty, Cyprus, and new Slovenian scares. 


Real-time Positions in Europe: Short SPDR Euro Stoxx50 (FEZ)

ECB on Hold

On Thursday the ECB’s governing council convenes. We expect no change to the main interest rates. Our rate position is largely in agreement with consensus -- 46 of 48 economists polled by Bloomberg expect no change. We don’t rule out a rate cut in 2013, but aren’t calling for one tomorrow.


This position is grounded in recent data that is supportive of an “accommodative” hands off approach from Draghi – CPI came down over recent months and is resting at 1.7% Y/Y in MAR, below the ECB’s 2.0% targeted level. PMIs across the region continue to look dim, but across the core were revised up in MAR versus initial estimates.  While the Eurozone unemployment rate has ticked up to all-time highs of 12%, Draghi will offload this concern to the labor market reforms needed at the country level.  Also, the aggregate unemployment rate has historically been higher than in the U.S. and is tame compared to peripheral figures. 


While we think that investor sentiment is lower on the region currently due to concerns over Italy, Cyprus, and now possibly Slovenia (more below) – as compared to the optimism in the back half of 2012 following the announcement of Draghi’s OMT –– we expect Draghi to keep his policy powder stowed on Thursday until there is a more meaningful flair-up in risk or greater change to the underlying data that the bank tracks. We believe the bank is also waiting and watching to see the outcome of the political scene in Italy.


ECB on Hold; EUR Pressured; Slovenia Scares - vv. interest rates


EUR/USD Levels

Broadly we think the uncertainty around the next Italian government, the tail of Cyprus, recent scares over Slovenia (more below), and the ECB interest rate stance on hold will put downside pressure on the EUR/USD. We’re no closer since the Italian election of late February in determining if a coalition can be formed as both Pier Luigi Bersani’s center-left and Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement refuse to accept a coalition.   


Our critical quantitative lines on the EUR/USD are outline in the chart below. We do not see any meaningful support until around $1.22.


ECB on Hold; EUR Pressured; Slovenia Scares - vv. eur usd new


The most recent weekly CFTC data (from 3/26) shows a continued net bearish positioning in the EUR/USD.


ECB on Hold; EUR Pressured; Slovenia Scares - vv. CFTC



Slovenia Joins the Mixer

Interestingly, the financial risks associated with Slovenia have received more attention this week. Take a look at the charts of the 8YR Yield on Slovenian debt, which began its hockey stick move on 3/15 to top out near 7% on 3/27, and 5yr CDS that jumped up since 3/22, but still remains below associated Greek freak-out levels last summer.


ECB on Hold; EUR Pressured; Slovenia Scares - vv. slovenia


If we have a Slovenian moment it will be very similar to Cyprus – a blip on the radar in terms of shaking the Eurozone apart – and we would not expect a similar deposit levy to be issued. Slovenia is much too close to the heart of Europe, it has different banking issues than Cyprus, and we believe the levy in Cyprus was largely a misstep on the part of the Eurocrats anyways.


To provide a bit of context on Slovenia, the country has been in the cross hairs (so to say) regarding its fiscal state for over a year, with the government at times saying either that it doesn’t need a bailout, or if it did, would not ask for external help.  But who can you trust these days?  Certainly not the Slovenian government.


The government actually fell in FEB 2013 over then PM Janex Jansa receiving slush funds, and on 3/14 was replaced by a coalition government led by the center left. 


It’s a rather small country (population of 2MM), with little great industry to speak of versus say its near neighbors the Austrians, Hungarians, or Slovaks.  Its banks, much like most countries in the region, are stuck with a bunch of bad loans (many construction related), with estimates to the tune of €7 Billion.


Here are a few economic facts:

  • GDP ~ €35 Bill (or 0.3% of Eurozone) vs Cyprus of €20B
  • GDP was down -2.3% in 2012
  • Debt as a % of GDP = 53.2% (as of 2012)
  • Deficit as % of GDP = -6.4% (as of 2011) vs -5.7 in 2010
  • CPI = 2% Y/Y
  • Industrial Production -1.8% (trending lower for last 15M)
  • Unemployment Rate at 13.6% JAN

We’ll continue to monitor and dig in on Slovenia as the market turns. In any case, our bottom line is that should there be a need for a bailout, the Eurocrats will again jump at the opportunity to throw good money at bad and sweep Slovenia, like Cyprus, under the rug. 


Matthew Hedrick
Senior Analyst


USD: Crushing Commodities

The US dollar has been on a tear lately, posting gains for 7 out of the last 8 weeks. The #StrongDollar has in turn driven down commodity prices considerably since the beginning of February, which has helped increase consumption and thus growth. The CRB Commodity Index, which measures 19 different commodities, is down -0.95% since January 3rd of this year while the US dollar has appreciated +2.89% in the same time period.


USD: Crushing Commodities - CRBcommodities

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