Psychological Ballet

“There’s a kind of psychological ballet: who will outstare who?”

-John Vaillant, The Tiger

 

Sound familiar? After a 3-day correction of 1% from the YTD high in the SP500, look into my eyes and tell me how you really feel. And “you should not suddenly turn tail because the scent of fear passes quickly.”

 

You must back off, slowly, slowly – especially if the tiger has a kill, or if she’s a mother with cubs: she makes a step, you make a step – you must not run away.” (The Tiger, pg 126)

 

To be clear, I remain bullish – and to the well known newsletter author (who sent me hate mail intraday yesterday) who wants me to roll-over and die… well, I say good luck. “Tigers will bluff-charge the same way bears do and, in most cases, all the tiger wants is an indication of submission.” (pg 150). If this market rips from here, I don’t want his apology – I just want him to publicly admit defeat.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

I know, I know – fights are breaking out and it’s getting gnarly out there. Old Wall guys sending me emails, former Perma Bulls going bearish – it’s all out there right now. It’s a Psychological Ballet. And I like it.

 

I also liked buying on red yesterday. We bought the SP500 (SPY) after seeing the low-end of our immediate-term Risk Range (1) tested and tried. After 3 straight down days for US stocks, the US 10yr Bond Yield is down a whole 3 basis points.

 

End Of World (#EOW) or correction? Who will outstare who into month and quarter-end?

 

Let’s drop the Siberian tiger stuff and getting into the Global Macro meat of the matter (currencies, countries, fear, etc.):

 

1.   CURRENCIES: the fulcrum piece of our bullish case on Asian and US #GrowthStabilizing remains the US Dollar. What Cyprus Storytelling gave us this week was an even Stronger Dollar, and Weaker Oil. The US Dollar Index is now up for 6 of the last 7 weeks and, not ironically, the CRB Commodities Index is down for 6 of the last 7 weeks.

 

2.   COUNTRIES: note that I wrote Asian and US #GrowthStabilizing; so, if you want to freak-out about Europe, just get over it and short Europe – but make sure you sell the right country (we prefer Italy, Russia, and France – in that order, short side). China’s Shanghai Composite ripped a +2.7% move overnight and Germany’s DAX is +0.8% testing 5-year highs. Not #EOW, yet.

 

3.   VOLATILITY: the epicenter of fear is in both the front-month and term structure of US Equity Volatility (VIX). I’ve written about this exhaustively for 3-months because I want to be Fading Fear (buying High Short Interest, Shorting Gold, Shorting Treasuries, etc.). Front-month VIX just failed at immediate-term TRADE resistance of 14.74 and has no support to 10.77.

 

I could always smell them. Now that they are sending me idle threats of hereditary right, I can see the Old Wall very clearly now. So what is it, gentlemen? To be long or short of stocks here? Buy or sell?  It really is an ok question to answer, transparently and accountably. I am watching you.

 

There are two categories of people when it comes to extreme situations… One gets scared first, and then starts thinking; the other starts thinking first and gets scared after the fact. Only the latter survives in the taiga.” (The Tiger, pg 155)

 

Having made over 2,000 long/short calls (all #timestamped, since 2008), almost 50% of the calls I have made have been on the short side. Inclusive of having to manage plenty of risk to the upside, my batting average on the short side = 79.12%. So A) unlike some of these pundits, I get things wrong and B) I have no problem shorting markets when my process tells me to do so.

 

Fear of fiction or perceived top-calling wisdoms only computes one way into my process – as contrarian indicators. If it’s the Italian Election or Cyprus that you fear, I am not scared. If you’ve been bearish the whole way up and it’s your reputation you fear, I don’t blame you.

 

Our immediate-term Risk Ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, USD/YEN, UST10yr Yield, VIX, Russell2000, and the SP500 are now $1, $107.14-109.53, $82.61-83.29, 93.68-97.17, 1.89-1.97%, 10.77-14.74, 933-955, and 1, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Psychological Ballet - Strong Dollar   Strong America

 

Psychological Ballet - Virtual Portfolio


Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more

Amazon's New 'Big Idea': Ignore It At Your Own Peril

"We all see another ‘big idea’ out of Amazon (or the press making one up) just about every day," writes Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. "But whatever you do, DON’T ignore this one!"

read more