Casual Dining Black Box Update

Black Box Intelligence released same-restaurant sales data for February.  As expected, the data is implying a significant deceleration in comparable sales and traffic trends.

Takeaways:

  • SRS fell 5% in February
  • 1Q-to-date trends averaging -2.3%
  • Winter weather comparisons were a negative factor in first two weeks of February
  • The western region (weather not a factor) performed the best: SRS up 2.1%
  • New England performed the worst: SRS -8.9%
  • Traffic declined -6.2% on top of January’s decline of -3.1%.  The rolling 3mo decline in traffic is now -4.2%
  • Average check is running +3.3% in 1Q13, up from 1.6% in September 2012

Casual Dining Black Box Update - black box same restaurant sales

 

Casual Dining Black Box Update - blackbox average check

Some upcoming catalysts:

JPM, BofA, UBS conferences this week and next

Our favorite names:

Long: EAT, JACK, CAKE, YUM

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Rory Green

Senior Analyst