THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 5, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 23 points or 1.06% downside to 1509 and 0.45% upside to 1532.       

                                                                                                                        

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.66 from 1.64
  • VIX  closed at 14.01 1 day percent change of -8.79%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 10am: ISM Non-Manf. Composite, Feb., est. 55.0 (prior 55.2)
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP Eco. Optimism, March, est. 48.1 (prior 47.3)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $2.75b-$3.5b notes in 2020-2023 sector
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4W bills, $25b 52W bills
  • 2pm: Fed’s Lacker speaks on monetary policy in Washington
  • 4:30pm: API Energy Inventories

GOVERNMENT:

    • Senate Budget Cmte holds hearing on tax code, 10:30am
    • Senate HELP Chairman Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, House Education & Workforce ranking member Rep. George Miller, D-Calif., announce introduction of legislation to raise federal minimum wage to $10.10/hr from $7.25, then provide automatic annual increases linked to changes in cost of living, 12pm
    • Agriculture Sec. Tom Vilsack among witnesses testifying on state of rural econ. at House Agriculture Cmte. hearing, 10am
    • Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff meets officials from Duke Energy to discuss whether company violated license for fire protection at a South Carolina nuclear plant, 1pm
    • Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg, SEC Commissioner Luis Aguilar speak at Greenlining Institute conference on diversity in financial industry, 8:30am
    • Treasury Dept, OCC hold a meeting to discuss the minority depository institution industry, 8:30am
    • House Fin Svcs panel holds hearing on Bernanke’s recent testimony on monetary policy, 10am
    • North American Securities Administrators Assoc. releases 2013 legislative agenda, including measures to regulate crowdfunding and fiduciary duty rule for broker-dealers, 10am
    • House Ways and Means panel holds hearing on tax provisions in Affordable Care Act, 11am
    • U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano discusses airport, airspace security at International Air Transport Assn conference in Brooklyn, N.Y., 9:30am

WHAT TO WATCH

  • EU opens way for easier budgets after Italian austerity backlash
  • Martha Stewart to testify today in J.C. Penney/Macy’s suit
  • House budget bill would continue automatic spending cuts
  • Compuware said to attract private-equity firms’ buyout interest
  • Pearson CEO said to tell FT staff to brace for fewer jobs
  • Commonwealth stock sales may be completed, U.S. judge rules
  • Fannie Mae regulator sets securities platform for post-GSE world
  • J&J, Bayer fail to win U.S. backing for expanded Xarelto use
  • Heinz CEO Johnson would get $200m in post-Berkshire exit
  • Rexnord said to draw Watts as suitor for water-management unit
  • News Corp. said to start cable-sports challenge to ESPN
  • Anadarko, Dhoot start sale of Mozambique gas stake: Reuters
  • Artisan Partners Asset Mgmt IPO books close tonight, terms show
  • Senate report faults JPMorgan’s “whale” disclosures: NYT
  • Tribune said to aim to sell all newspapers in single deal
  • Chavez health worsens with second lung infection, Venezuela says

EARNINGS:

    • Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS CN) 7:30am, C$1.25
    • Infinity Pharmaceuticals (INFI) 4pm, $(0.84)
    • VeriFone Systems (PAY) 4:01pm, $0.49
    • Smith & Wesson (SWHC) 4:05pm, $0.23
    • First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM CN) 5pm, $0.33
    • Qihoo 360 Technology Co Ltd (QIHU) 5pm, $0.17
    • Trilogy Energy (TET CN) 5pm, C$0.03
    • Allied Properties Real Estate (AP-U CN) Aft-mkt, C$0.46
    • Gibson Energy (GEI CN) Aft-mkt, C$0.34
    • Uranium One (UUU CN) Aft-mkt, $0.02
    • Taro Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (TARO) Aft-mkt, NA

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Gold Hoarders Turn Sellers as Bull Run Decays: Chart of the Day
  • Rice Glut Expands With Farms Poised for Record Crop: Commodities
  • Gold Rises for First Time in Five Days on Stimulus; Silver Gains
  • Copper to Climb on Chinese Demand This Year, Jiangxi Copper Says
  • Soybeans Reach One-Week High on Signs of Stronger Export Demand
  • Sugar Rises for Second Day on Ethanol Outlook; Coffee Also Gains
  • WTI Crude Rebounds From 10-Week Low; Brent Pipeline Remains Shut
  • Cooparaiso Sees Brazil Reaping Record Off-Year Coffee Harvest
  • Palm Oil to Trade at 1,950-2,500 Ringgit a Ton, Sauthoff Says
  • CME’s Asian Business Expanding 35% Stoked by Gold to Currencies
  • U.K. Natural Gas Stores May Empty in Two Weeks: Chart of the Day
  • Oil Inventories Gain a Seventh Week in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Scorpio Wins as U.S. Crude Curbs Spur Shale Refineries: Freight
  • Copper Advances Most in a Week as China Maintains Growth Goal

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more