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ELASTICITY OF RESTAURANT DEMAND

Price elasticity of demand is a measure used in economics to show the responsiveness, or elasticity, of the quantity demanded of a good or service to a change in its price.  We think there are a few companies within the restaurant industry that are depending on price inelasticity of demand among their consumers to hit FY13 guidance.  There are some indications that, in casual dining at least, demand may be more elastic than operators would like.

 

The recent deterioration in same-restaurant sales growth can be attributed to many different factors like the payroll tax increase, delayed tax returns, and higher gas prices year-over-year.  It seems that operators increasing prices may also be playing a role.  Black Box Intelligence data, illustrated in the chart below, suggests that traffic growth in the lower-margin casual dining industry has been decelerating of late as prices have been moving higher. 

 

Some points on specific companies:

  • BWLD traffic is down mid-to-high single digits, depending on where mix is tracking, in the early innings of 1Q13.  Is the company seeing a negative “multiplier effect” in its traffic trends as it takes price?
  • CMG has indicated that it will likely raise prices later this year.  We are skeptical of the concept’s ability to raise prices further in FY13
  • PNRA has been increasingly dependent on price and mix to drive its comp.  With traffic possibly negative in 2013, the company’s ability to push new menu items will be crucial to its success in 2013.
  • Concepts that have heavy exposure to red meat prices may experience the most margin pressure if the consumer begins to push back on pricing.  Insiders in the beef industry are anticipating another record year for beef prices in 2013 as the US herd has been cut to its smallest size since 1952.

ELASTICITY OF RESTAURANT DEMAND - blackbox elasticity

 

While some management teams tell us that they are not feeling any pushback on price increases in their restaurants, is this chart indicating that operators within casual dining are seeing it?

 

ELASTICITY OF RESTAURANT DEMAND - restaurant employment

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Senior Analyst


Hedgeye's Best Consumer Ideas: Long IGT

Takeaway: IGT is set to reap the benefits of a three to five year bull market in the slots business.

Todd Jordan – Gaming, Lodging & Leisure: LONG International Game Technology (IGT)


The previous management team spent heavily on acquisitions anticipating a boom in Server-Based Gaming (SBG).  But SBG failed to take off, and by 2009 IGT stock went into a steep decline.  With new management focused on developing gaming content, we think the company is done with acquisitions.  This frees up substantial cash flow, and management has made it clear they intend to use this to benefit shareholders.  The stock now trades at the low end of its earnings multiple range (11X forward P/E) management’s stated goal of increasing leverage should make as much as $450 million available each year for share repurchases, while leaving room for multiple expansion to drive higher share prices.

 

Jordan says the company is at an inflection point as company and sector fundamentals have turned.  IGT’s market share has stabilized and is now on the upswing.  If we are right, and the company is done with acquisitions, this should lead to rapidly rising Return On Investment – faster than today’s stock price would imply.

 

IGT is seeing both profitability and cash flow increase.  As interactive gaming starts to build momentum, earlier acquisitions are finally starting to pay off.  Meanwhile the stock price is stuck on the idea that “previous management made a bunch of lousy acquisitions.”  Jordan says these acquisitions aren’t “lousy” any more, which should be reflected in 2013 earnings and ROI performance.  Jordan sees the industry moving into what should be a 3-5 year bull market as replacement demand improves and new jurisdictions look to increase tax revenues.   ON-line gaming proposals are under discussion in a number of US states, but there is also plenty of room for expansion internationally as countries such as Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and South Korea explore the potential of gaming as a revenue generator.


On Notice

Client Talking Points

Hit The Brakes

Having transitioned from #GrowthSlowing to #GrowthStabilizing in mid-November back in 2012, we’ve since enjoyed a run up in the US equity market of epic proportions. The bears have been slaughtered, with their heads proudly displayed above the mantle in the House of Bulls. As much as the global recovery is exciting, it can be stopped in its tracks right now by two things: oil and Japan. Should Brent crude oil hit $130 a barrel and high gas prices come back into play, that will affect the consumer and when consumption slows, growth slows. As for Japan, their insistence on destroying the Yen while trying to save their own economy leaves much to be desired. After all, the Yen has been “Taro Aso’d” for some time now now. Just remember that the market only goes up until it doesn’t.

Valentine's Day

I wouldn't be able to pen today's RIA Daily Playbook without mentioning the single most important holiday of the year for couples. So with that being said, here's a random tidbit for you: it is estimated that $13.19 billion will be spent on Valentine's Day between the chocolates, the flowers, the dates, the jewelry, etc. That's nothing to sneeze at and is a positive for consumption which is a driver of global growth. If you are not participating in today's festivities for whatever reason, may we suggest enjoying a nice bottle of wine and the first season of the critically acclaimed HBO series The Wire ?

Asset Allocation

CASH 55% US EQUITIES 10%
INTL EQUITIES 15% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 5% INTL CURRENCIES 15%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
ASCA

We believe ASCA will receive a higher bid from another gaming competitor. Our valuation puts ASCA’s worth closer to $40.

FDX

With FedEx Express margins at a 30+ year low and 4-7 percentage points behind competitors, the opportunity for effective cost reductions appears significant. FedEx Ground is using its structural advantages to take market share from UPS. FDX competes in a highly consolidated industry with rational pricing. Both the Ground and Express divisions could be separately worth more than FDX’s current market value, in our view.

HOLX

HOLX remains one of our favorite longer-term fundamental growth companies given growing penetration of its 3D Tomo platform and high leverage to the 2014 Insurance Expansion from the Affordable Care Act.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

“Holy heck...$HNZ going away...didn't see that one coming...god speed to Warren Buffett” -@HedgeyeStaples

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“The squeaking wheel doesn't always get the grease. Sometimes it gets replaced.” -Vic Gold

STAT OF THE DAY

U.S. weekly jobless claims drop 27,000 to 341,000 in the week ended Feb. 9.


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Call Today: "A Counterpoint To Herbalife as a Pyramid Scheme"

The Hedgeye Consumer Staples Team, led by Rob Campagnino, will be hosting an expert conference call entitled "A Counterpoint To Herbalife as a Pyramid Scheme" today, February 14th, at 1:00pm EST featuring Professor Anne Coughlan. 

 

Please dial in 5-10 minutes prior to the 1:00pm EST start time using the number provided below, if you have any further questions email .

  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:

Conference Code: 582869#

 

 

KEY TOPICS WILL INCLUDE

  • Historical context and understanding of multi-level marketing (MLM) and how direct selling looks different than traditional retail
  • Areas in which Ackman and others misrepresent or misunderstand the MLM model
  • Assessment of HLF moving forward

 

ABOUT PROFESSOR ANNE COUGHLAN

 

Professor Coughlan is the John L. & Helen Kellogg Professor at the Kellogg School of Management. She joined the faculty in 1985. Coughlan's areas of expertise are distribution channels, direct marketing, international marketing, sales force management and compensation, and pricing. She is the lead author of Marketing Channels (a textbook originally published in 1996 and now in its seventh edition from Prentice Hall). She teaches classes on distribution channel strategies at the MBA level, and quantitative models in marketing at the doctoral level.  

 

Coughlan was invited by Herbalife to explain multilevel marketing plans at the company's January 10, 2013 Analysts Day. In July 2012 she published a paper titled "Assessing an MLM Business: Herbalife as a Legitimate MLM".

 

Coughlan was the recipient of the school's Executive Master's Program Teacher of the Year Award for the best elective course in 1996 and again in 2003, as well as receiving the Sidney J. Levy Teaching Award in 2000-01.  She received her Ph.D. in Economics at Stanford University. Prior to her appointment at Kellogg, she was a professor at the business school of the University of Rochester.

 

 

 


Call Today: "A Counterpoint To Herbalife as a Pyramid Scheme"

Call Today: "A Counterpoint To Herbalife as a Pyramid Scheme" - Staples herbalifeB

 

The Hedgeye Consumer Staples Team, led by Rob Campagnino, will be hosting an expert conference call entitled "A Counterpoint To Herbalife as a Pyramid Scheme" today, February 14th, at 1:00pm EST featuring Professor Anne Coughlan. 

 

 

KEY TOPICS WILL INCLUDE

  • Historical context and understanding of multi-level marketing (MLM) and how direct selling looks different than traditional retail
  • Areas in which Ackman and others misrepresent or misunderstand the MLM model
  • Assessment of HLF moving forward

 

ABOUT PROFESSOR ANNE COUGHLAN

 

Professor Coughlan is the John L. & Helen Kellogg Professor at the Kellogg School of Management. She joined the faculty in 1985. Coughlan's areas of expertise are distribution channels, direct marketing, international marketing, sales force management and compensation, and pricing. She is the lead author of Marketing Channels (a textbook originally published in 1996 and now in its seventh edition from Prentice Hall). She teaches classes on distribution channel strategies at the MBA level, and quantitative models in marketing at the doctoral level.  

 

Coughlan was invited by Herbalife to explain multilevel marketing plans at the company's January 10, 2013 Analysts Day. In July 2012 she published a paper titled "Assessing an MLM Business: Herbalife as a Legitimate MLM".

 

Coughlan was the recipient of the school's Executive Master's Program Teacher of the Year Award for the best elective course in 1996 and again in 2003, as well as receiving the Sidney J. Levy Teaching Award in 2000-01.  She received her Ph.D. in Economics at Stanford University. Prior to her appointment at Kellogg, she was a professor at the business school of the University of Rochester.

 

 

CALL DETAILS

 

Please dial in 5-10 minutes prior to the 1:00pm EST start time using the number provided below, if you have any further questions email .

  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 582869#


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