THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 13, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 16 points or 0.62% downside to 1510 and 0.43% upside to 1526.  

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.74 from 1.72
  • VIX  closed at 12.64 1 day percent change of -2.32%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Feb. 8 (prior 3.4%)
  • 8:30am: Import Price Index M/m, Jan., est. 0.8% (prior -0.1%)
  • 8:30am: Advance Retail Sales, Jan., est. 0.1% (prior 0.5%)
  • 10am: Business Inventories, Dec., est. 0.2%  (prior 0.3%)
  • 10:30am: DoE Inventory Reports
  • 11am: Fed’s Bullard speaks in Arkansas on economy
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b in 2036-2042 sector
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $24b 10Y notes
  • 5pm: Fed’s Dudley gives welcoming remarks at “Video Festival Finals” in N.Y.

GOVERNMENT:

    • Confirmation hearing for Treasury Sec nominee Jacob Lew
    • Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.; Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio; Jack Reed, D-R.I., hold news conference on importance of CFPB, urge confirmation of Richard Cordray as director. 2:30pm
    • U.S. Chamber of Commerce hosts transport infrastructure summit
    • Energy Dept., FERC hold meeting on coordination between natural gas, electricity markets. 9am
    • House Financial Svcs Cmte hears from FHA Commissioner Carol Galante on agency’s Nov. report to Congress that revealed FHA may need taxpayer bailout. 10am
    • U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds transportation infrastructure summit with Rep, Bill Shuster, R-Pa., Ingram Barge Co. CEO Craig Philip, Nick Atkins, CEO of American Electric Power, representatives from UPS, IBM, Lowes Hotels, JetBlue, 8:30am
    • Senate Judiciary Cmte hears from Homeland Security Sec. Janet Napolitano on immigration law. 9:30am

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Obama paints wider role for govt. in middle class revival
    • Says U.S. will begin trade talks with 27 nations of EU
    • Seeks minimum wage boost to bolster economy
    • Proposing oil-funded trust to curb gas prices
  • Apple said to have team of 100 developing wristwatch computer
  • Copper cos. file court challenge to JPMorgan ETF approval
  • G-7 roils currency markets with split on concern over yen
  • CME’s Gill says would consider joining overseas consolidation
  • Legg Mason said to name Joseph Sullivan CEO
  • Moody’s authorizes $1b of stock buybacks after price drop
  • Goldman Sachs CEO Blankfein says he’ll stay for a while
  • Morgan Stanley triples Mexico staff
  • BlackRock picks Morgan Stanley’s Shedlin as CFO
  • Batteries for 787 can’t be shipped on passenger planes: UN
  • Brill Building said to sell Allied Partners for $200m
  • Novartis’s $67k marrow drug fails to win U.K. agency backing
  • Swiss impose capital buffer to calm overheating housing mkt
  • MSCI announces quarterly index changes after mkt close
  • Citigroup’s bank rating upgraded to stable by Moody’s

EARNINGS:

    • Proto Labs (PRLB) 6am, $0.26
    • Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR) 6am, $0.16
    • Calpine (CPN) 6am, $(0.05)
    • MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) 6am, $0.02
    • Blackbaud (BLKB) 6:30am, $0.24
    • Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP (CLMT) 6:30am, $0.69
    • WellCare Health Plans (WCG) 6:30am, $1.31
    • Manitoba Telecom Services (MBT CN) 6:30am, C$0.61
    • Thomson Reuters (TRI CN) 7am, $0.55
    • Dean Foods Co (DF) 7am, $0.30
    • Henry Schein (HSIC) 7am, $1.21
    • Deere & Co (DE) 7am, $1.40 - Preview
    • Duke Energy (DUK) 7am, $0.64
    • Lorillard (LO) 7am, $0.76
    • WhiteWave Foods (WWAV) 7:30am, $0.17
    • Hyatt Hotels (H) 7:30am, $0.12
    • Hospira (HSP) 7:30am, $0.54 - Preview
    • Sonoco Products Co (SON) 7:30am, $0.54
    • Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings (AAWW) 7:39am, $1.74
    • Dr Pepper Snapple Group (DPS) 8am, $0.85
    • Mine Safety Appliances Co (MSA) 8:30am, $0.55
    • CAE (CAE CN) 8:30am, $0.16
    • Finning International (FTT CN) 9am, C$0.56
    • Saputo (SAP CN) 11:58am, C$0.66
    • Itron (ITRI) 4pm, $0.64
    • ArthroCare (ARTC) 4pm, $0.37
    • Mondelez International (MDLZ) 4pm, $0.37
    • NVIDIA (NVDA) 4pm, $0.29
    • KapStone Paper and Packaging (KS) 4:01pm, $0.27
    • Morningstar (MORN) 4:01pm, $0.56
    • NetApp (NTAP) 4:01pm, $0.56
    • Equinix (EQIX) 4:01pm, $0.59
    • TripAdvisor (TRIP) 4:02pm, $0.27
    • Portfolio Recovery Associates (PRAA) 4:03pm, $2.00
    • Whole Foods Market (WFM) 4:03pm, $0.77
    • MetLife (MET) 4:03pm, $1.18
    • CenturyLink (CTL) 4:04pm, $0.68
    • Sovran Self Storage (SSS) 4:05pm, $0.82
    • Rovi (ROVI) 4:05pm, $0.44
    • ValueClick (VCLK) 4:05pm, $0.51
    • Cisco Systems (CSCO) 4:05pm, $0.48
    • Applied Materials (AMAT) 4:05pm, $0.03
    • Ingram Micro (IM) 4:05pm, $0.58
    • Weight Watchers International (WTW) 4:05pm, $0.87
    • Zillow (Z) 4:05pm, $0.00
    • Cloud Peak Energy (CLD) 4:10pm, $0.50
    • Corrections ofamerica (CXW) 4:10pm, $0.41
    • j2 Global (JCOM) 4:15pm, $0.61
    • Intrepid Potash (IPI) 4:15pm, $0.25
    • Pioneer Natural Resources Co (PXD) 4:15pm, $0.88
    • Oceaneering International (OII) 4:20pm, $0.72
    • ION Geophysical (IO) 4:30pm, $0.13
    • C&J Energy Services (CJES) 4:30pm, $0.67
    • Charles River Laboratories International (CRL) 4:30pm, $0.60
    • Washington Real Estate Investment Trust (WRE) 4:42pm, $0.46
    • Home Capital Group (HCG CN) 5pm, C$1.68
    • Taubman Centers (TCO) 5pm, $0.97
    • Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd (AEM CN) 5pm, $0.46
    • Kinross Gold (K CN) 5pm, $0.21
    • TAL International Group (TAL) 5:01pm, $0.95
    • EOG Resources (EOG) 5:01pm, $1.35
    • Sun Life Financial (SLF CN) 5:10pm, C$0.45
    • Calloway REIT (CWTu CN) 5:34pm, C$0.45
    • Euronet Worldwide (EEFT) Post-Mkt, $0.47
    • Avis Budget Group (CAR) Post-Mkt, $(0.07)
    • Boardwalk REIT (BEIu CN) Post-Mkt, C$0.74
    • Liberty Global (LBTYA) Post-Mkt, $(0.07)

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


GOLD – being long Gold as US employment and housing continue to stabilize (ITB Housing ETF +3.8% yesterday in the US) doesn’t work. Finally getting an immediate-term TRADE oversold signal at $1641/oz, but Gold remains in a Bearish Formation.

  • Corn Slides as Wheat Reaches Seven-Month Low on Rain Speculation
  • Cameco Sees Japan Uranium Recovery After Fukushima: Commodities
  • Platinum’s Premium to Gold Widens to 17-Month High on Zimbabwe
  • Lead Rises a Second Day on Speculation China Will Resume Buying
  • Oil Trades Near One-Week High; IEA Trims Global Demand Forecast
  • Palm Oil Inventories in Malaysia Miss Estimates, Futures Slump
  • Cocoa Seen Gaining in London as Manufacturers May Build Reserves
  • Oil May Head to $100 With Two-Year Support: Technical Analysis
  • Blackstone to OSG Win Record Tanker Rates on Export Ban: Freight
  • Copper Companies File Court Challenge to JPMorgan ETF Approval
  • Record Gulf Coast Exports Fuel Terminal Logjam: Energy Markets
  • Astra Agro Sells 7,000 Tons of Crude Palm Oil in Auction (Table)
  • Preview: Rio Tinto Earnings to Focus on $5b Cost-Savings Plan
  • Palm Oil Drops as Stockpiles in Malaysia Hold Near Record Level

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CURRENCIES

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


FRANCE – broke our TRADE line 3 weeks ago and continues to flash another negative divergence versus squeeze tapes (Greece and Spain) this morn; if you are hunting for shorts, hunt in France – the economic data sucks relative to USA/Germany.

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ASIAN MARKETS


KOSPI – re-captures our intermediate-term TREND line of 1961 (post the NKorea headline noise); so that fixes 1 major equity market risk (for now); Bovespa and Sensex continue to signal bearish however.

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team