NCLH 4Q12 CONF CALL NOTES

NCLH 4Q12 CONF CALL NOTES

 


"We are very pleased to begin our journey as a public company by posting strong results for 2012. In addition, our fourth quarter results marked our eighteenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year Adjusted EBITDA growth" 

 

- Kevin Sheehan, President and Chief Executive Officer of Norwegian Cruise Line

 

 

CONF CALL NOTES

  • Despite the weaker than expected results from Europe and impact of Super Storm Sandy, Net Yields increased 2%. Full year load factor was only down 0.6%. Capacity for the year increased 1.7%. 
  • Hedging strategy of using swaps and collars.  Also look at ways of cutting fuel consumption.
  • Leverage is now below 5x and both rating agencies have upgraded their ratings as a result of the IPO and debt transactions consumated post IPO
  • Capacity for the next Q will be lower YoY but higher for the year of 2013.
  • Taking delivery of Norweign Breakaway in a few months, will bring the best of NYC to the seas

Q&A

  • Seeing a lot of momentum on booking patterns over the last 5 weeks
  • Demand during WAVE season by region?
    • This year Christmas and NYE fell on Tuesday so it impacted bookings these weeks, however, since then they have been booking in that 20%ish zone similar to RCL.  
    • Europe is booking in-line with the rest of their itineraries for now.  When they get closer in, that's when they would drop prices or raise prices on Europe depending on booking patterns towards the end of Q1. Still too early to tell.
  • Seeing a healthy booking period - which has extended from 2012.  Reason for the wide guidance is that they are being cautious since it's their first quarter as a public company. Hope to narrow guidance as the year progresses. 
  • Only have 11 ships so they have more volatility when it comes to dry docking and NCC costs ex Fuel. They bought the Genting ship and that came with a $5MM charter fee.  Now that goes away.  3 dry docks per year are the right number for them.
  • Nothing unique to the Epic vs. their other ships.  It's a double digit improvement to the other ships - people stay up later and spend more money on drinks and the casino. The design of these new ships are probably even a little better than Epic.
  • Back on Jan 23rd they issued a statement to their passengers on the Jade that they wouldn't enter the Holy Land region given what was occurring and that cost them a little yield.
  • Alaska: Had 3 ships in the region up until a few years ago when the state put a large tax on their gas. Then the taxes were rolled back and they are bringing the 3rd ship back. 
  • Putting a scrubber on the Pride of America - costs a lot but allows them to use fuel more efficiently. Will do that with their new ships.
  • Drove down their fuel consumption by 1.5% last year due to efficiency measures and feel like they can continue to do that.

 

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE RELEASE

 

NCLH 4Q12 CONF CALL NOTES - nclh

  • "Contributing to the increase in revenue were slightly higher Capacity Days in the quarter and a Net Yield improvement of 2.5%, or 2.7% on a Constant Currency basis, from higher ticket pricing and onboard spend per Capacity Day."
  • " NCC ex Fuel decreased ... from the timing of certain repairs and maintenance expense, including dry-docks, and business improvement initiatives."
  • "The delivery of our Breakaway and Breakaway Plus class vessels, designed to improve on the already successful platform of Norwegian Epic, along with our strong product proposition that offers a consistent experience throughout our fleet, has Norwegian well positioned for 2013 and beyond."
  • [1Q13] "Adjusted EPS guidance based on net income excluding one-time charges related to the Company's initial public offering, issuance of $300 million in senior unsecured notes, redemption of the full amount of the Company's outstanding $450 million 11.75% senior secured notes due 2016 and partial redemption of our outstanding $350 million 9.5% senior unsecured notes due 2018."
  • "On January 24, 2013 the Company closed on an initial public offering ("IPO") of 27,058,824 of its ordinary shares, including shares sold as a result of the full exercise by the underwriters of their option to purchase additional shares, at a price of $19.00 per share."
  • "On February 6, 2013, the Company closed on the sale of $300 million of senior unsecured notes due February 2018 at a coupon of 5.00% per annum. The notes were issued at a price of 99.451%. The aggregate net proceeds of the IPO and the notes offering, after deducting underwriting discounts, commissions, initial purchasers' discount and estimated fees and expenses, were used to prepay certain credit facilities, repay amounts pursuant to the Norwegian Sky Agreement, redeem the full amount of the outstanding $450 million 11.75% senior secured notes due 2016, redeem a portion of the outstanding $350 million 9.5% senior notes due 2018 and for general corporate purposes." 


 


6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more