THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 23, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or 1.18% downside to 1475 and 0.23% upside to 1496.        

                                                                                                                       

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.60 from 1.60
  • VIX  closed at 12.43 1 day percent change of -0.24%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications (prior 15.2%)
  • 7:45am: ICSC/Goldman weekly sales
  • 8:55am: Johnson/Redbook weekly sales
  • 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM Nov. est. 0.7% (prior 0.5%)
  • 9:45am: Revision of Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
  • 10am: IMF releases World Economic Outlook update
  • 11am: U.S. to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b notes
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 4-week bills
  • 4:30pm: API energy inventories

GOVERNMENT:

    • IMF issues update to 2013 World Economic Outlook, 10am
    • Congressional Gun Violence Prevention Task Force holds
    • meeting, 1pm
    • Sec. of State Clinton testifies on Benghazi before Senate
    • Foreign Relations, 9am; House Foreign Affairs, 2pm
    • ITC scheduled to announce decision to uphold/review a trade
    • judge’s finding that Samsung infringed on 4 Apple patents, 5pm

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Apple reports earnings after close; 47.8m iPhones expected
  • Allergan to buy Map Pharma for $958 million in cash
  • Google profit tops ests. on year-end advertising gains
  • IBM 2013 EPS beats estimates as software boosts profit
  • Texas Instruments forecasts sales that miss some estimates
  • McDonald’s qtr global comp sales may drop; first since 2003
  • Siemens profit beats estimates on energy, health-care units
  • Unilever sales growth beats estimates on emerging markets
  • Draghi says ‘Darkest Clouds’ over euro area have lifted
  • Netanyahu vows broad coalition as Lapid surprises in vote
  • U.K.’s Cameron promises to hold referendum on EU by 2017
  • U.S. budget discord is top threat to global economy: poll
  • Microsoft said to weigh Dell investment in buyout
  • World Economic Forum in Davos continues

EARNINGS:

    • Wellpoint (WLP) 6:00am, $0.94
    • Air Products & Chemicals (APD) 6:00am, $1.29
    • Baker Hughes (BHI) 6:00am, $0.61
    • TE Connectivity (TEL) 6:00am, $0.64
    • Praxair (PX) 6:05am, $1.38
    • Textron (TXT) 6:30am, $0.56
    • Quest Diagnostics (DGX) 6:30am, $1.04
    • Coach (COH) 7:00am, $1.29
    • Motorola Solutions (MSI) 7:00am, $1.02
    • United Technologies (UTX) 7:00am, $1.03
    • RPC (RES) 7:15am, $0.25
    • Rollins (ROL) 7:30am, $0.17
    • First Niagara Financial (FNFG) 7:30am, $0.18
    • Molex (MOLX) 7:30am, $0.39
    • St Jude Medical (STJ) 7:30am, $0.89
    • Allegheny Technologies (ATI) 7:35am, $0.15
    • Abbott Laboratories (ABT) 7:44am, $0.46
    • McDonald’s (MCD) 7:58am, $1.33
    • US Airways Group (LCC) 8:00am, $0.19
    • General Dynamics (GD) Pre-Mkt, $1.89
    • Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) 4:00pm, $0.83
    • Bancorp South (BXS) 4:00pm, $0.24
    • RLI (RLI) 4:00pm, $0.45
    • Swift Transportation (SWFT) 4:00pm, $0.26
    • Cubist Pharmaceuticals (CBST) 4:00pm, $0.48
    • Stryker (SYK) 4:00pm, $1.13
    • Varian Medical Systems (VAR) 4:00pm, $0.87
    • Greenhill & Co (GHL) 4:01pm, $0.72
    • Amgen (AMGN) 4:01pm, $1.38
    • Crown Castle International (CCI) 4:01pm, $0.13
    • LSI (LSI) 4:01pm, $0.14
    • Hexcel (HXL) 4:03pm, $0.38
    • Umpqua Holdings (UMPQ) 4:05pm, $0.23
    • InvenSense (INVN) 4:05pm, $0.17
    • Polycom (PLCM) 4:05pm, $0.15
    • F5 Networks (FFIV) 4:05pm, $1.15
    • Netflix (NFLX) 4:05pm, $(0.13)
    • SanDisk (SNDK) 4:05pm, $0.75
    • Symantec (SYMC) 4:05pm, $0.38
    • Lam Research (LRCX) 4:05pm, $0.44
    • United Rentals (URI) 4:15pm, $1.05
    • Altera (ALTR) 4:15pm, $0.39
    • Western Digital (WDC) 4:15pm, $1.82
    • Raymond James (RJF) 4:19pm, $0.67
    • Cathay General Bancorp (CATY) 4:30pm, $0.33
    • Cohen & Steers (CNS) 4:30pm, $0.42
    • Susquehanna Bancshares (SUSQ) 4:30pm, $0.23
    • Apple (AAPL) 4:30pm, $13.56
    • FNB /PA (FNB) 4:35pm, $0.21
    • East West Bancorp (EWBC) 4:45pm, $0.48
    • Hill-Rom Holdings (HRC) 5:00pm, $0.44
    • Noble (NE) 5:00pm, $0.67
    • Parametric Technology (PMTC) 5:25pm, $0.33
    • Teradyne (TER) 6:00pm, $0.01
    • Jacobs Engineering (JEC) Late PM, $0.75

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

OIL – Both Brent and WTIC have re-captured their respective long-term TAIL risk lines of $92.04 and $111.48 support. There’s as important a difference b/t global growth slowing and stabilizing as there is stabilizing and accelerating – and it’s real tough to see consumption accelerate if food/oil prices reflate (from here); something to noodle over w/ Energy (XLE) +6.7% YTD.

  • Gold Near One-Month High Before Lawmakers Vote on Debt Ceiling
  • Leon Black Follows Denham in Buyout Firm Mine Push: Commodities
  • Physical Gold Purchases Seen by Standard Bank as Unusually High
  • Copper Trades Near One-Week High Before U.S. Debt-Ceiling Vote
  • Oil Trades Near Four-Month High Before Vote on U.S. Debt Ceiling
  • Soybeans Gain as Brazil Dryness May Cut Crop Amid Rising Demand
  • Rice Exports From Thailand Drop to Decade Low, Losing Top Spot
  • Cocoa Swings as Ivory Coast’s Crop Spared Damage; Coffee Gains
  • Galena Energy Hedge Fund Chief Lixi Said to Leave Company
  • Algeria Attack No Outlier as Oil Targeted 3 Times a Week: Energy
  • Chile Billionaires Propel CSAV to First From Worst: Freight
  • Traders Plan Gasoline, Diesel Freight Swaps as U.S. Drives Rally
  • Rubber Drops for Third Day as Delayed Stimulus May Curb Demand
  • Rebar Futures Rise for Second Day on Optimism Demand to Improve

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


RUSSIA - +0.8% leads European majors this morning and is more of the same on the reflation point. Treasury Bond Yields don’t like Oil ripping either, down a few bps d/d to 1.84%. Always interesting to study macro moves on the margin.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS


KOSPI – a leading indicator in our model works both ways and its interesting that the KOSPI (down -0.81% last night) just broke my immediate-term TRADE line (1985) out of nowhere (despite “Tech” news being solid after the US close). Nikkei punishing the Johnny come lately consensus crowd who came into the short Yen/long Nikkei trade late, down -2.1% through 10,733 TRADE support.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 


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