TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 23, 2013
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or 1.18% downside to 1475 and 0.23% upside to 1496.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.60 from 1.60
- VIX closed at 12.43 1 day percent change of -0.24%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications (prior 15.2%)
- 7:45am: ICSC/Goldman weekly sales
- 8:55am: Johnson/Redbook weekly sales
- 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM Nov. est. 0.7% (prior 0.5%)
- 9:45am: Revision of Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
- 10am: IMF releases World Economic Outlook update
- 11am: U.S. to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b notes
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 4-week bills
- 4:30pm: API energy inventories
GOVERNMENT:
- IMF issues update to 2013 World Economic Outlook, 10am
- Congressional Gun Violence Prevention Task Force holds
- meeting, 1pm
- Sec. of State Clinton testifies on Benghazi before Senate
- Foreign Relations, 9am; House Foreign Affairs, 2pm
- ITC scheduled to announce decision to uphold/review a trade
- judge’s finding that Samsung infringed on 4 Apple patents, 5pm
WHAT TO WATCH
- Apple reports earnings after close; 47.8m iPhones expected
- Allergan to buy Map Pharma for $958 million in cash
- Google profit tops ests. on year-end advertising gains
- IBM 2013 EPS beats estimates as software boosts profit
- Texas Instruments forecasts sales that miss some estimates
- McDonald’s qtr global comp sales may drop; first since 2003
- Siemens profit beats estimates on energy, health-care units
- Unilever sales growth beats estimates on emerging markets
- Draghi says ‘Darkest Clouds’ over euro area have lifted
- Netanyahu vows broad coalition as Lapid surprises in vote
- U.K.’s Cameron promises to hold referendum on EU by 2017
- U.S. budget discord is top threat to global economy: poll
- Microsoft said to weigh Dell investment in buyout
- World Economic Forum in Davos continues
EARNINGS:
- Wellpoint (WLP) 6:00am, $0.94
- Air Products & Chemicals (APD) 6:00am, $1.29
- Baker Hughes (BHI) 6:00am, $0.61
- TE Connectivity (TEL) 6:00am, $0.64
- Praxair (PX) 6:05am, $1.38
- Textron (TXT) 6:30am, $0.56
- Quest Diagnostics (DGX) 6:30am, $1.04
- Coach (COH) 7:00am, $1.29
- Motorola Solutions (MSI) 7:00am, $1.02
- United Technologies (UTX) 7:00am, $1.03
- RPC (RES) 7:15am, $0.25
- Rollins (ROL) 7:30am, $0.17
- First Niagara Financial (FNFG) 7:30am, $0.18
- Molex (MOLX) 7:30am, $0.39
- St Jude Medical (STJ) 7:30am, $0.89
- Allegheny Technologies (ATI) 7:35am, $0.15
- Abbott Laboratories (ABT) 7:44am, $0.46
- McDonald’s (MCD) 7:58am, $1.33
- US Airways Group (LCC) 8:00am, $0.19
- General Dynamics (GD) Pre-Mkt, $1.89
- Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) 4:00pm, $0.83
- Bancorp South (BXS) 4:00pm, $0.24
- RLI (RLI) 4:00pm, $0.45
- Swift Transportation (SWFT) 4:00pm, $0.26
- Cubist Pharmaceuticals (CBST) 4:00pm, $0.48
- Stryker (SYK) 4:00pm, $1.13
- Varian Medical Systems (VAR) 4:00pm, $0.87
- Greenhill & Co (GHL) 4:01pm, $0.72
- Amgen (AMGN) 4:01pm, $1.38
- Crown Castle International (CCI) 4:01pm, $0.13
- LSI (LSI) 4:01pm, $0.14
- Hexcel (HXL) 4:03pm, $0.38
- Umpqua Holdings (UMPQ) 4:05pm, $0.23
- InvenSense (INVN) 4:05pm, $0.17
- Polycom (PLCM) 4:05pm, $0.15
- F5 Networks (FFIV) 4:05pm, $1.15
- Netflix (NFLX) 4:05pm, $(0.13)
- SanDisk (SNDK) 4:05pm, $0.75
- Symantec (SYMC) 4:05pm, $0.38
- Lam Research (LRCX) 4:05pm, $0.44
- United Rentals (URI) 4:15pm, $1.05
- Altera (ALTR) 4:15pm, $0.39
- Western Digital (WDC) 4:15pm, $1.82
- Raymond James (RJF) 4:19pm, $0.67
- Cathay General Bancorp (CATY) 4:30pm, $0.33
- Cohen & Steers (CNS) 4:30pm, $0.42
- Susquehanna Bancshares (SUSQ) 4:30pm, $0.23
- Apple (AAPL) 4:30pm, $13.56
- FNB /PA (FNB) 4:35pm, $0.21
- East West Bancorp (EWBC) 4:45pm, $0.48
- Hill-Rom Holdings (HRC) 5:00pm, $0.44
- Noble (NE) 5:00pm, $0.67
- Parametric Technology (PMTC) 5:25pm, $0.33
- Teradyne (TER) 6:00pm, $0.01
- Jacobs Engineering (JEC) Late PM, $0.75
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
OIL – Both Brent and WTIC have re-captured their respective long-term TAIL risk lines of $92.04 and $111.48 support. There’s as important a difference b/t global growth slowing and stabilizing as there is stabilizing and accelerating – and it’s real tough to see consumption accelerate if food/oil prices reflate (from here); something to noodle over w/ Energy (XLE) +6.7% YTD.
- Gold Near One-Month High Before Lawmakers Vote on Debt Ceiling
- Leon Black Follows Denham in Buyout Firm Mine Push: Commodities
- Physical Gold Purchases Seen by Standard Bank as Unusually High
- Copper Trades Near One-Week High Before U.S. Debt-Ceiling Vote
- Oil Trades Near Four-Month High Before Vote on U.S. Debt Ceiling
- Soybeans Gain as Brazil Dryness May Cut Crop Amid Rising Demand
- Rice Exports From Thailand Drop to Decade Low, Losing Top Spot
- Cocoa Swings as Ivory Coast’s Crop Spared Damage; Coffee Gains
- Galena Energy Hedge Fund Chief Lixi Said to Leave Company
- Algeria Attack No Outlier as Oil Targeted 3 Times a Week: Energy
- Chile Billionaires Propel CSAV to First From Worst: Freight
- Traders Plan Gasoline, Diesel Freight Swaps as U.S. Drives Rally
- Rubber Drops for Third Day as Delayed Stimulus May Curb Demand
- Rebar Futures Rise for Second Day on Optimism Demand to Improve
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
RUSSIA - +0.8% leads European majors this morning and is more of the same on the reflation point. Treasury Bond Yields don’t like Oil ripping either, down a few bps d/d to 1.84%. Always interesting to study macro moves on the margin.
ASIAN MARKETS
KOSPI – a leading indicator in our model works both ways and its interesting that the KOSPI (down -0.81% last night) just broke my immediate-term TRADE line (1985) out of nowhere (despite “Tech” news being solid after the US close). Nikkei punishing the Johnny come lately consensus crowd who came into the short Yen/long Nikkei trade late, down -2.1% through 10,733 TRADE support.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team