To listen to the Q1 2013 Macro Themes Conference Call hosted earlier today by the Hedgeye Macro Team, led by CEO Keith McCullough, please CLICK HERE (in order to access the replay you will need your hedgeye.com login information.) To view the presentation that accompanied today's call CLICK HERE.
Both our research and risk management indicators are signaling a shift away from #GrowthSlowing and have a bullish read-through for equities as fund flows move out of bonds. The risk of the U.S. Debt Ceiling remains a factor; however, we expect a rebound from the consumer as Bernanke's Commodity Bubble continues to deflate.
Housing market fundamentals continue to strengthen and are expected to maintain and possibly accelerate their momentum through 2013. We see changes in key housing metrics driving further upside that includes inventory levels, pricing and household formation.
With the recent election of prime minster Shinzo Abe and his appointment of Taro Aso as finance minster, Japan looks to dominate the macroeconomic news flow out of Asia in Q1 as it pursues a variety of unconventional monetary and fiscal policies. Still our favorite short in all of Global Macro, we believe the yen will continue its descent vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar and the euro, imposing a variety of spillover risks for Japanese and international financial markets.