Here we provide you with hold adjusted property EBITDA estimates. With the exception of Wynn, all Hedgeye estimates exceed consensus.
Overall, VIP hold in Q4 was a little above normal which contributed to our property-level EBITDA estimates summing 1% higher than our hold adjusted estimates. Galaxy was the biggest beneficiary of lady luck which boosted EBITDA an estimated $13 million (+3%). On the other side was MPEL where EBITDA was dragged down by an estimated $11 million (-4%).
Interestingly, MPEL should still post the biggest Q4 beat of the season, even after the hold drag. We’re estimating Q4 property EBITDA and hold adjusted property EBITDA of $279 and $290 million, respectively, well above what we believe consensus to be at $238 million. There will be no qualifying MPEL’s results this quarter. They will be outstanding. For the market, excluding SJM for which we don’t have an estimate, we’re projecting EBITDA of $1.748 billion, well above consensus of $1.592 billion. Wynn is the only operator projected to miss consensus on an actual or adjusted basis. All others are projected to exceed consensus by 10% or more.
On a year over year basis after adjusting for VIP hold in both periods, Macau EBITDA (excluding SJM) is projected to increase 19% YoY. With the opening of Sands Cotai Central, Sands China (LVS) leads the growth race while Wynn should be the only operator experiencing a down quarter. Galaxy should post significantly higher EBITDA (+39% vs the market at 19%) despite Galaxy Macau being open in both quarters.