Client Talking Points
The Right Stuff
This whole cliff mess is quite funny when you look at what has occurred over time. The US government has changed how it calculates inflation nine times since 1996. This way, it looks like there’s never any real inflation to report, no matter what Bernanke does. But we’re not fools and you aren’t either. We know inflation when we see it and as well as deflation. The commodity bubble that Bernanke helped create is now deflating as growth stabilizes. If we want further recovery, we need to strengthen the US dollar in addition to deflating commodity prices. It worked for Reagan and Clinton. Why not give it a shot after our failed Keynesian efforts?
Today is the last day of the 2012. It’s also the last day until we “officially” hit the debt ceiling although some economists would argue that. Can the President and Congressional Democrats and Republicans put aside their differences and actually serve the people of this great country for once? We’re about to find out.
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Top Long Ideas
Our competitors are neutral to bearish on the name ahead of earnings, but we think they’re missing the bigger picture. We think concerns over the shoe cycle rolling over are overdone. With R&D in the mid-teens, NKE has the ability to drive the ‘sneaker cycle’ in a case of “the tail wagging the dog”. We also think $NKE is a candidate for releasing a special dividend when they report EPS next week.
Uncertainty in US from a macro perspective (jobless claims uptick) gives us pause from TRADE perspective although coffee prices will serve as a tailwind going forward. Company is becoming more complex, taking on risk as it acquires new brands. Longer-term, we view Starbucks, along with YUM, as one of the most attractive global growth stories in our space.
Margins are in a cycle trough as the USPS is on the brink. FDX is taking more share in the U.S. and following the recent $TNT news flow we think $UPS is in a tough spot.
Three for the Road
TWEET OF THE DAY
“Looks like a full trading day” -@Marketshot
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“An ignorant person is one who doesn't know what you have just found out.” -Will Rogers
STAT OF THE DAY
Shanghai Composite Index closes up +15.8% from its December low (+1.6% for the year) as global growth stabilizes.