THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 24, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 31 points or 0.78% downside to 1419 and 1.39% upside to 1450.       

                                                                                                                                                        

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.51 from 1.50
  • VIX closed at 17.84 1 day percent change of 0.96%
  • BONDS – 10yr UST Yield ticks up 1 basis pt to 1.77% this morning (instead of ticking down w/ US Equity futures); the breakout line for UST yields = 1.70% TREND (now support) and we’ll go with the bond market signal on growth all day long vs whatever stocks are doing.

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell $32b 3-mo. bills, $28b 6-mo.

GOVERNMENT:

    • Federal offices closed for Christmas holiday
    • President Obama on vacation in Hawaii, attended service yday for U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye
    • Hagel would be challenging nomination for Defense, Graham says

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Holiday shoppers hit malls amid concerns of slowing economy
  • Online U.S. holiday spending up 16%, Comscore says
  • Groupon made failed bid for online luxury retailer Achica, Telegraph says
  • ‘Hobbit’ top N.A. movie again with $37m in ticket sales
  • U.S. gasoline falls to lowest in year in Lundberg survey
  • U.S. equity exchanges, bond markets have reduced hours today
  • Leveraged loan issuance in U.S. this year hit highest mark since 2007
  • Sony said in talks with state-run fund to sell battery unit
  • Verizon says hacker didn’t release customers’ data: Forbes
  • Pimco’s Bill Gross sees probability of U.S. going over fiscal cliff of >50%
  • Regions Financial probed by SEC, others on loans: WSJ
  • U.S. Weekly Agendas: Finance, Industrials, Energy, Health, Consumer, Tech, Media/Ent, Transports, Real Estate
  • Canada Weekly Agendas: Energy, Mining
  • Week Ahead: Fiscal Cliff, U.S. Home Sales, 2013: Dec. 24-Jan. 5
  • NOTE: No U.S. Daybook tomorrow due to Christmas holiday

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

OIL – continue to see selling right where it matters on both Brent and WTIC (both continue to fail at my TRADE and TREND lines of resistance); this is ultimately bullish for consumers, globally.

  • Brent Crude Declines a Third Day Amid U.S. Budget Talk Impasse
  • Bullish Wagers Drop to Six-Month Low on U.S. Budget: Commodities
  • Copper Gains in London as Hedge Funds Boost Bets on China Demand
  • German Day-Ahead Power Price Turns Negative Before Holiday
  • Sugar Falls on Signs of Oversupply in Brazil, India; Cocoa Drops
  • EU Carbon Permits Fall as Volumes Shrink Before Public Holidays
  • Palm Oil Advances to Four-Week High on China Demand Speculation
  • Wheat Futures Gain on Russia Frost, U.S. Seen More Competitive
  • SEC Puts Off Decision on Blackrock’s Copper ETF to February
  • Hedge Funds Boost Oil Bets Most in Four Months: Energy Markets
  • Asia Naphtha Crack Gains; PetroChina Buys Jet Fuel: Oil Products
  • Kazakh Wealth Fund Said to Weigh Acquisition of Kazzinc Stake
  • Tiberius Says Active Commodity Fund Gained 2.4% in November
  • Aluminum Canceled Warrants Are at Record High on London Exchange

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS


ASIA – on the top-line, Taiwan printed its best Industrial Production growth number in 9 months (+5.9% NOV vs 4.8% OCT) and from a cost of goods/living perspective Singapore reported inflation (CPI) at a 2yr low (3.6% y/y NOV vs 4.0% OCT).  #bullish.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 


Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more

Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

read more

We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more