TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 24, 2012
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 31 points or 0.78% downside to 1419 and 1.39% upside to 1450.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.51 from 1.50
- VIX closed at 17.84 1 day percent change of 0.96%
- BONDS – 10yr UST Yield ticks up 1 basis pt to 1.77% this morning (instead of ticking down w/ US Equity futures); the breakout line for UST yields = 1.70% TREND (now support) and we’ll go with the bond market signal on growth all day long vs whatever stocks are doing.
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell $32b 3-mo. bills, $28b 6-mo.
GOVERNMENT:
- Federal offices closed for Christmas holiday
- President Obama on vacation in Hawaii, attended service yday for U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye
- Hagel would be challenging nomination for Defense, Graham says
WHAT TO WATCH
- Holiday shoppers hit malls amid concerns of slowing economy
- Online U.S. holiday spending up 16%, Comscore says
- Groupon made failed bid for online luxury retailer Achica, Telegraph says
- ‘Hobbit’ top N.A. movie again with $37m in ticket sales
- U.S. gasoline falls to lowest in year in Lundberg survey
- U.S. equity exchanges, bond markets have reduced hours today
- Leveraged loan issuance in U.S. this year hit highest mark since 2007
- Sony said in talks with state-run fund to sell battery unit
- Verizon says hacker didn’t release customers’ data: Forbes
- Pimco’s Bill Gross sees probability of U.S. going over fiscal cliff of >50%
- Regions Financial probed by SEC, others on loans: WSJ
- U.S. Weekly Agendas: Finance, Industrials, Energy, Health, Consumer, Tech, Media/Ent, Transports, Real Estate
- Canada Weekly Agendas: Energy, Mining
- Week Ahead: Fiscal Cliff, U.S. Home Sales, 2013: Dec. 24-Jan. 5
- NOTE: No U.S. Daybook tomorrow due to Christmas holiday
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
OIL – continue to see selling right where it matters on both Brent and WTIC (both continue to fail at my TRADE and TREND lines of resistance); this is ultimately bullish for consumers, globally.
- Brent Crude Declines a Third Day Amid U.S. Budget Talk Impasse
- Bullish Wagers Drop to Six-Month Low on U.S. Budget: Commodities
- Copper Gains in London as Hedge Funds Boost Bets on China Demand
- German Day-Ahead Power Price Turns Negative Before Holiday
- Sugar Falls on Signs of Oversupply in Brazil, India; Cocoa Drops
- EU Carbon Permits Fall as Volumes Shrink Before Public Holidays
- Palm Oil Advances to Four-Week High on China Demand Speculation
- Wheat Futures Gain on Russia Frost, U.S. Seen More Competitive
- SEC Puts Off Decision on Blackrock’s Copper ETF to February
- Hedge Funds Boost Oil Bets Most in Four Months: Energy Markets
- Asia Naphtha Crack Gains; PetroChina Buys Jet Fuel: Oil Products
- Kazakh Wealth Fund Said to Weigh Acquisition of Kazzinc Stake
- Tiberius Says Active Commodity Fund Gained 2.4% in November
- Aluminum Canceled Warrants Are at Record High on London Exchange
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
ASIA – on the top-line, Taiwan printed its best Industrial Production growth number in 9 months (+5.9% NOV vs 4.8% OCT) and from a cost of goods/living perspective Singapore reported inflation (CPI) at a 2yr low (3.6% y/y NOV vs 4.0% OCT). #bullish.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team