Market share in a tailspin and stagnant growth
- In 2012, Wynn Macau will likely have generated flat net revenues and EBITDA on a normalized hold basis vs 2011
- Our projections, as seen below, indicate similarly flat to slightly down revenue growth but EBITDA is projected to fall 4% vs the Street consensus of +3% growth.
- Unless Wynn changes its junket commission and/or credit strategy, EBITDA growth is likely to remain flat at best until Wynn Cotai opens in 2016
- With no positive catalysts, WYNN stock could be under pressure with slowing market growth next year (smoking restrictions, Beijing corruption crackdown, and moderating Mass hold percentage)
