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Market share in a tailspin and stagnant growth


  • In 2012, Wynn Macau will likely have generated flat net revenues and EBITDA on a normalized hold basis vs 2011
  • Our projections, as seen below, indicate similarly flat to slightly down revenue growth but EBITDA is projected to fall 4% vs the Street consensus of +3% growth.
  • Unless Wynn changes its junket commission and/or credit strategy, EBITDA growth is likely to remain flat at best until Wynn Cotai opens in 2016
  • With no positive catalysts, WYNN stock could be under pressure with slowing market growth next year (smoking restrictions, Beijing corruption crackdown, and moderating Mass hold percentage)

CHART DU JOUR: WYNN MACAU UNDER PRESSURE - wynn