THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 10, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 13 points or 0.85% downside to 1406 and 0.07% upside to 1419.         

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.37 from 1.38
  • VIX closed at 15.9 1 day percent change of -4.10%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.5b-$2.25b notes due 2/15/36-11/15/42
  • 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell $32b 3-mo., $28b 6-mo. bills
  • 12:45pm:Bank of England Governor King speaks at Economic Club of New York

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama to deliver speech in Detroit to promote his federal budget deficit plan
    • FDIC Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee meets to discuss Title II of Dodd-Frank Act

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Obama, Boehner held private meeting at White House on budget
  • Greece extends deadline for debt buyback after nearing target
  • Canada’s approval of $20b energy takeovers may spark more foreign investments
  • Dragon Systems founders take Goldman to trial over advice
  • SEC said to investigate SAC Capital’s trading in Intermune and Weight Watchers
  • Apple, Google team up for $500m-plus Kodak patents bid
  • AIG sells ILFC majority stake to Chinese investors for $4.23b
  • Japan sinks into recession as opposition leader Abe calls for more stimulus
  • China’s exports rose less than forecast in November
  • Ingersoll-Rand said to plan share buyback, asset spinoff
  • Apple/Samsung ruling on U.S. phone sales may come this week
  • Wanxiang outbids Johnson Controls for most of A123 assets
  • Suntory weighs takeover of whiskey maker Beam, official says
  • Mattel returns to appeals panel that threw out Bratz verdict
  • ‘Skyfall’ reclaims top spot with ticket sales of $11m

EARNINGS:

    • Ferrellgas Partners (FGP) 7am, $(0.23)
    • John Wiley & Sons (JW/A) 8am, $0.82
    • Casey’s General Stores (CASY) 4pm, $0.85
    • Teavana Holdings (TEA) 4:01pm, ($0.01)
    • Greif (GEF) 4:07pm, $0.55
    • ABM Industries (ABM) 5pm, $0.40

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Oil Rebounds as German Exports Advance; OPEC to Meet in Vienna
  • Speculators Cut Bullish Bets on Fiscal Cliff Talks: Commodities
  • Japanese Aluminum Fees Said to Decline for First Time in a Year
  • Gold Gains in London on Drop to One-Month Low, Stimulus Outlook
  • Copper Reaches 7-Week High as Chinese Industrial Output Expands
  • Corn Falls to Three-Week Low as South American Outlook Improves
  • Sugar Declines on Indications of Ample Supplies; Cocoa Slides
  • Gold Set for Retreat on Momentum Indicator: Technical Analysis
  • China Crude Imports Rise to Six-Month High as Oil Refining Jumps
  • Tin Shipments From Indonesia Drop for First Time in Three Months
  • Iron-Ore Exports From Australia Jump to Record on China Recovery
  • Palm Oil Stockpiles in Malaysia Climb to Record as Exports Drop
  • Japan Suspends Beef Imports From Brazil on Mad-Cow Disease
  • Hedge Funds Quit U.S. Natural Gas as Cold Fades: Energy Markets

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CURRENCIES


USD – 1st up week in 3 for the USD last week punished Commodity prices, and we liked it. Oil in particular is back into a Bearish Formation after snapping TRADE support of $109.63 Brent; TREND in USD is higher, not lower (up for 8 of last 11 weeks), so we’ll see if getting a cliff deal strengthens it further – not clear on that yet either way.

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


ITALY – Monti probably took a peek at down -2.4% y/y Q3 GDP growth and said we’re out! So is whoever bought last week’s lower-highs in Italian equities; MIB index down hard (-3.4%) moving back below 15,615 TRADE support and back into a Bearish Formation – risk happens fast.


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ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – Chinese stocks moved out of crash mode putting on a +4.1% move last week and saw +1.1% follow through this morning back about my TRADE line of 2039 support (Shanghai); that was bullish, and so was NOV Industrial Production growth (10.1% vs 9.6% in OCT) and Retail Sales (+14.9% vs 14.5%); CPI rose to 2% from 1.7% only neg news.

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team