TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 27, 2012
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 39 points or 1.87% downside to 1380 and 0.90% upside to 1419.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.39 from 1.40
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 6:30am: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Berlin
- 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
- 8:30am: Bernanke speaks, College Fed Challenge, Washington
- 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, Oct. est. -0.7% (prior 9.8%)
- 9am: S&P/CS 20 City M/m SA, Sept. est. 0.4% (prior 0.49%)
- 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, Nov., est. -9 (prior -7)
- 10am: Consumer Confidence, Nov. est. 73.0 (prior 72.2)
- 10am: House Price Index M/m, Sept. est. 0.4% (prior 0.7%)
- 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes due 2/15/23-2/15/31
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell $40b 4-week bills
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $35b 2-year notes
- 1pm: House Price Purchase Index Q/q, 3Q, est. 1.4%
- 4:30pm: API inventories
- 5pm: Fed’s Potter speaks at NYU Stern School
- 6pm: Fed’s Evans speaks in Toronto
- House, Senate in session
- Army Private First Class Bradley Manning, accused of releasing classified documents to WikiLeaks website, faces preliminary hearings in Fort Meade, Md.
- IEA Executive Director Maria Van Der Hoeven holds briefing on 2012 World Energy Outlook, 4pm
WHAT TO WATCH
- European finance ministers eased the terms on emergency aid for Greece
- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said he advocates limits on U.S. quantitative easing
- Lehman Brothers agreed to sell its Archstone unit to Equity Residential and AvalonBay for $6.5bn, scrapping plans for IPO
- Durable goods orders probably fell 0.7% in Oct.
- Las Vegas Sands CEO Adelson to earn $1.2b from special div.
- HP sued over losses from alleged fraud at Autonomy before buyout
- Apple, LG Electronics face trial over Alcatel-Lucent patents
- Fiscal cliff in U.S. raises risk of global recession, OECD says
- U.K. GDP rose 1% in 3Q, matching median forecast
- JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon would be best to lead Treasury Dept. in financial crisis, Buffett says
- Bombardier wins record $7.8b order from U.K.’s VistaJet
- Italy borrowing costs fall at zero coupon 2014 auction
- Rajat Gupta bid to remain free while appealing verdict opposed by U.S.
- Ralcorp Holdings (RAH) 7am, $0.87
- ADT (ADT) Pre-mkt, $0.43
- Alimentation Couche Tard (ATD/B CN) 11am, $0.94
- Analog Devices (ADI) 4pm, $0.57
- Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) 4pm, $0.48
- PVH (PVH) 4:02pm, $2.29
- Guidewire Software (GWRE) 4:05pm, $0.01
- Copart (CPRT) After-mkt, $0.36
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Oil Trades Near One-Week Low as Supply Counters Europe Optimism
- Speculators Raise Wagers First Time in Seven Weeks: Commodities
- Soybeans Advance to Two-Week High on South American Crop Concern
- Copper Reaches Three-Week High as Greece Gets Eased Rescue Terms
- Financing Deals May Keep Aluminum Premiums Elevated: Outlook
- Gold Swings Between Gains and Declines as Greek Deal Reached
- China Poised to Delay Corn Imports Until Price Drops, Group Says
- Wheat Exports From India to Surge as Drought Cuts Global Harvest
- Cocoa Swings Between Gains and Losses; Sugar, Coffee Climb
- Rebar Falls for Second Day After Iron Ore Drops to One-Month Low
- LNG Rising Most Since Fukushima Spurring 21% Golar Gain: Freight
- Thailand to Surpass India as Top Rice Shipper on Stockpile Sales
- Rebound in Shipping Fundamentals Unlikely Until 2H13: Outlook
- Aluminum 2013 Demand Growth May Reach Mid-Single Digits: Outlook
EURO – shorting the Euro on the Greek “news” is the most obvious move to make here in FX; looking at re-shorting the Yen as well; long USD and long the long Bond (TLT) as bond yields couldn’t care less about Greece.
GREECE – up, up, then down; if you believe anything Greece, Spain, or Italy says, that’s an entirely different discussion; in the meantime, market’s don’t lie; politicians do – Greek stocks (Athex Index) -1% on the day now; down -7% and -48% from their OCT2012 and NOV2011 lower-highs, respectively.
CHINA – a new day in Chinese stocks brought fresh YTD lows; down -1.3% on the Greek “news” to 1991 on the Shanghai Comp, now only 90bps away from being back in crash mode (-19.1% from the #GrowthSlowing top in March).
The Hedgeye Macro Team