THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 27, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 39 points or 1.87% downside to 1380 and 0.90% upside to 1419.      

                                                                                                                                                                         

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.39 from 1.40

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 6:30am: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Berlin
  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
  • 8:30am: Bernanke speaks, College Fed Challenge, Washington
  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, Oct. est. -0.7% (prior 9.8%)
  • 9am: S&P/CS 20 City M/m SA, Sept. est. 0.4% (prior 0.49%)
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, Nov., est. -9 (prior -7)
  • 10am: Consumer Confidence, Nov. est. 73.0 (prior 72.2)
  • 10am: House Price Index M/m, Sept. est. 0.4% (prior 0.7%)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes due 2/15/23-2/15/31
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $40b 4-week bills
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $35b 2-year notes
  • 1pm: House Price Purchase Index Q/q, 3Q, est. 1.4%
  • 4:30pm: API inventories
  • 5pm: Fed’s Potter speaks at NYU Stern School
  • 6pm: Fed’s Evans speaks in Toronto

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate in session
    • Army Private First Class Bradley Manning, accused of releasing classified documents to WikiLeaks website, faces preliminary hearings in Fort Meade, Md.
    • IEA Executive Director Maria Van Der Hoeven holds briefing on 2012 World Energy Outlook, 4pm

WHAT TO WATCH

  • European finance ministers eased the terms on emergency aid for Greece
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said he advocates limits on U.S. quantitative easing
  • Lehman Brothers agreed to sell its Archstone unit to Equity Residential and AvalonBay for $6.5bn, scrapping plans for IPO
  • Durable goods orders probably fell 0.7% in Oct.
  • Las Vegas Sands CEO Adelson to earn $1.2b from special div.
  • HP sued over losses from alleged fraud at Autonomy before buyout
  • Apple, LG Electronics face trial over Alcatel-Lucent patents
  • Fiscal cliff in U.S. raises risk of global recession, OECD says
  • U.K. GDP rose 1% in 3Q, matching median forecast
  • JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon would be best to lead Treasury Dept. in financial crisis, Buffett says
  • Bombardier wins record $7.8b order from U.K.’s VistaJet
  • Italy borrowing costs fall at zero coupon 2014 auction
  • Rajat Gupta bid to remain free while appealing verdict opposed by U.S.

EARNINGS:

    • Ralcorp Holdings (RAH) 7am, $0.87
    • ADT (ADT) Pre-mkt, $0.43
    • Alimentation Couche Tard (ATD/B CN) 11am, $0.94
    • Analog Devices (ADI) 4pm, $0.57
    • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) 4pm, $0.48
    • PVH (PVH) 4:02pm, $2.29
    • Guidewire Software (GWRE) 4:05pm, $0.01
    • Copart (CPRT) After-mkt, $0.36

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Oil Trades Near One-Week Low as Supply Counters Europe Optimism
  • Speculators Raise Wagers First Time in Seven Weeks: Commodities
  • Soybeans Advance to Two-Week High on South American Crop Concern
  • Copper Reaches Three-Week High as Greece Gets Eased Rescue Terms
  • Financing Deals May Keep Aluminum Premiums Elevated: Outlook
  • Gold Swings Between Gains and Declines as Greek Deal Reached
  • China Poised to Delay Corn Imports Until Price Drops, Group Says
  • Wheat Exports From India to Surge as Drought Cuts Global Harvest
  • Cocoa Swings Between Gains and Losses; Sugar, Coffee Climb
  • Rebar Falls for Second Day After Iron Ore Drops to One-Month Low
  • LNG Rising Most Since Fukushima Spurring 21% Golar Gain: Freight
  • Thailand to Surpass India as Top Rice Shipper on Stockpile Sales
  • Rebound in Shipping Fundamentals Unlikely Until 2H13: Outlook
  • Aluminum 2013 Demand Growth May Reach Mid-Single Digits: Outlook

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CURRENCIES


EURO – shorting the Euro on the Greek “news” is the most obvious move to make here in FX; looking at re-shorting the Yen as well; long USD and long the long Bond (TLT) as bond yields couldn’t care less about Greece.

 

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


GREECE – up, up, then down; if you believe anything Greece, Spain, or Italy says, that’s an entirely different discussion; in the meantime, market’s don’t lie; politicians do – Greek stocks (Athex Index) -1% on the day now; down -7% and -48% from their OCT2012 and NOV2011 lower-highs, respectively.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – a new day in Chinese stocks brought fresh YTD lows; down -1.3% on the Greek “news” to 1991 on the Shanghai Comp, now only 90bps away from being back in crash mode (-19.1% from the #GrowthSlowing top in March).

 

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 


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