The Macau Metro Monitor, November 26, 2012




The new set of rules on slot machines was published today in the Official Gazette. The bylaw, which oversees the location of slot parlours and several technical issues, will be enacted tomorrow.


The rules open the way for mobile gambling using wireless networks, but “only inside gambling areas especially authorized” by the gaming regulator.  The bylaw also stipulates that slot parlours are only to be located inside five-star hotels, in non-residential buildings located within a 500-metre range of a casino or within a resort “not integrated in a densely populated area”.


The government has one year to adopt “adequate measures” to solve the issue of slot parlours located in residential areas, the bylaw states.  According to Secretary Tam, the new rules will impact half of the 11 slot parlours currently operating outside casinos.


The bylaw also states that gaming manufacturers that want to supply their products in Macau must be authorized by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.  It adds that all slot machines must have a minimum return to player ratio of between 80% and 98%.

Starting January, gaming manufacturers can only supply products compliant with the new bylaw.  Gaming concessionaires are offered a six-month period starting from tomorrow to replace or fix all non-compliant slot machines in their casinos.  Gaming operators must also inform the gaming regulator at least 20 days before they install a new jackpot or linked jackpot.



SJM managing director Angela Leong On Kei proposed that an all-inclusive smoking ban should be imposed on casinos instead of the current partial one.  She expected limited impacts on the gaming business if proper publicity is carried out.  Leong opted for a thorough ban instead of the partial ban, which she said is difficult for casinos to enforce because they operate round the clock and because of insufficient publicity that she worried might cause disputes between casino-goers and managers.  Some legislators immediately expressed support for the recommendation.


“The truth I tell you! The sea is Sophia. Wisdom.”



It’s all about Greece this morning. Sort of. That’s a quote from “the first man of Greece”, Pythagoras. He was also the first man “to use the term Philo-Sophia, which means philosopher, the lover of wisdom.” (Pythagoras The Mathemagician, pg 217)


Wikipedia calls philosophy “the study of general and fundamental problems, such as those connected with reality, existence, knowledge, values, reason, mind, and language.”  


That’s a lot. My philosophy this morning is this: let the market’s infinite wisdom tell me what to do next.


Back to the Global Macro Grind


There was no volume last week, but prices ripped. With the US Dollar down for the 1st week in the last 5, US stocks had their 1st up week in 5. Commodities, Junk Bonds, and even Japanese stocks (Nikkei +3.8%) were up big too.


Get the Dollar right, and you get a lot of things Big Beta right. With the 90-day inverse correlation between the USD and the SP500 clocking a -0.90 this morning, there’s plenty rear-view mirror Philo-Sophia in that.


But what would get people to sell bonds and buy stocks (on real-volume)? My philosophy is no different than Reagan or Clinton’s was – sustainable economic growth (not Greek bailout headlines and US Dollar Debauchery).


As a reminder, the US Dollar Index was 15-30% higher during both the Reagan and Clinton bull markets:

  1. Reagan (1) – US GDP Growth averaged 4.31% (Oil averaged $22.16/barrel)
  2. Clinton (1) – US GDP Growth averaged 3.84%% (Oil averaged $18.63/barrel)

Philo-Sophia: Strong Dollar = Strong America.


So, don’t expect last week’s -1.3% correction in the US Dollar to get me excited about sustainable US economic growth. The bond market isn’t excited about that this morning either.


Last week’s selloff in US Treasuries (UST 10yr yield rose from 1.58% to 1.69% wk-over-wk) didn’t break any lines that matter in my multi-duration model. For the 10yr yield, those lines are as follows:

  1. Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1.69%
  2. Intermediate-term TREND resistance = 1.73%
  3. Long-term TAIL resistance = 1.91%

In other words, close but no cigar! This morning, the 10yr yield dropped right back to 1.66% and (after failing at 1.73% resistance) remains in what we call a Bearish Formation (bearish on all 3 of our core risk management durations: TRADE, TREND, and TAIL).


That puts Treasury Bonds in a Bullish Formation – and that’s why I took the Hedgeye Asset Allocation to Fixed Income up to 27% (versus 18% at the start of last week) on Friday’s stock market hope.


Hope is not a risk management process.


Neither is devaluing your currency in hopes that you get what this economy really needs (growth). Ask the Japanese about that – their currency has been hammered (down -5.2% in the last 2 months), but exports just hit a 3yr low (down -6.5% y/y in OCT).


Philo-Sophia: Keynesians, eat cake.


In other globally interconnected stock market signaling news:

  1. SP500 is back to bullish TRADE (1378 support), but remains bearish TREND (1419 resistance)
  2. Russell2000 remains bearish TRADE (812) and TREND (846)
  3. US Equity Volatility (VIX) held our long-term TAIL line of 14.31 support (bearish TRADE = 16.65)
  4. Chinese Stocks (Shanghai Composite) remain in a Bearish Formation (-0.5% overnight, testing YTD lows)
  5. Hang Seng holds its bullish TRADE (21,496) and TREND (20,965) support
  6. South Korea’s KOSPI remains bearish TRADE (1919 resistance) and TREND (1991 resistance)
  7. Germany’s DAX is holding intermediate-term TREND support of 7144
  8.  Italy’s MIB Index leads decliners this morning after failing at 15,733 TREND resistance

Fully loaded with Italians reporting their lowest level of Consumer Confidence report ever (84.8 NOV vs 86.2 OCT), we are still certain that A) ever is a long time and B) doing more of what isn’t working won’t work.


Since 2 of the top 3 Most Read articles on Bloomberg this morning have to do with where I started (Greece), I digress. “The truth I tell you!” is to stay true to the best process we know, until we have to learn from those mistakes and evolve again.


Our immediate-term Risk Ranges (support and resistance) for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, EUR/USD, UST 10yr Yield, and the SP500 are now $1, $109.83-111.48, $80.03-80.62, $1.28-1.30, 1.62-1.69%, and 1, respectively.


Best of luck out there this week,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


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Finish Strong

This note was originally published at 8am on November 12, 2012 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“It wasn’t where he started, but where he’d finished, that mattered.”

-Arthur Herman, Freedom’s Forge


To be clear, in building the vision for My Business, I’m not finished – I’m just getting started. No matter what your political and/or economic view this morning, trust in yourself, family, and firm is what is going to help you build something that lasts.


Especially in this profession, where many are hyper-focused on what they get paid today, we can all learn a lot from the aforementioned quote in Freedom’s Forge about Bill Knudsen. That’s how he thought about the opportunity to compete with Ford. That’s how I think about competing with the Old Wall.


“What were you getting paid at Ford?” “Fifty thousand dollars a year,” came the answer. So Sloan started him on February 23, 1922 at six thousand dollars a year. Knudsen didn’t care.” (page 28) In 1922, Bill Knudsen took over “GM’s lowest-priced, but also least profitable, division.” It was called Chevrolet.


Back to the Global Macro Grind


With Global Equity markets down hard last week (USA -2.5%, China -2.3%, Europe -1.7%), all of a sudden November of 2007 doesn’t seem so far away. Remember, that’s when the global corporate revenue and #EarningsSlowing cycle started last time. In November of 2007, the SP500 was down -4.4%. It wasn’t all about “the cliff” then – it isn’t now, either.


I’m not suggesting the Fiscal Cliff doesn’t matter this time – I’m simply reminding you that:


A)     It’s not new and should have been proactively prepared for (it wasn’t)  

B)      It’s the outcome of a much larger causal factor that the country is begging for more of (Keynesian Policy)

C)      It’s not happening in a vacuum; both Japan and Europe are going off #KeynesianCliffs of their own


This is why we warned our clients of the #KeynesianCliff (Hedgeye Macro Theme #3) before it became the perma-bull marketers latest crutch. This is also why we’ll remind you that Japan reporting a -3.5% QoQ SAAR GDP for Q3 of 2012 (Nikkei down -15.4% since #GrowthSlowing started, globally, in March) is how it ends. Japanese stocks have been making lower-highs for 20 years.


Deficit spending and money printing has a very causal relationship with long-term #GrowthSlowing. Kicking this can down the road for the sake of a “market pop” is the dumbest thing Americans can hope for right now. We need to start anew by taking the pain, so that we our kids and theirs can finish strong. That’s what matters.


What doesn’t matter to the 97% of people who don’t get paid by them is creating asset bubbles that inflate, then pop. To review, there have been 3 Major Policy Bubbles perpetuated by Greenspan/Bernanke in the last 15 years:

  1. Tech
  2. Housing
  3. Commodities

Bubble#3 (our 2nd Hedgeye Macro Theme for Q412) remains Commodities. Looking at last week’s CFTC (Commodities and Futures Exchange) data, here’s what that looks like in real-time:

  1. CFTC net long contracts down -11% wk-over-wk (biggest weekly drop since June) to 931,048 futures/options contracts
  2. CFTC net long contracts down -31% from The Bernanke Top we’ve been focused since mid-September 2012
  3. Copper contracts down -70% last week to 2,077!

Now the Doctor (Copper) has been signaling #GrowthSlowing in our multi-factor, multi-duration, risk management model since February of 2012 (see Chart of The Day). Seeing copper implode since then is not new – but it doesn’t mean it has stopped.


On that score, last week’s commodity price moves highlight what I think summarizes the overall Q412 beta environment for stocks and commodities in particular:

  1. Copper = down another -1.1% wk-over-wk to $3.44/lb (bearish on all 3 of our core durations: TRADE/TREND/TAIL)
  2. Gold = up +3.4% wk-over-wk to $1730/oz (recapturing intermediate-term TREND support of $1702/oz)

To me, that’s demand slowing (Copper falling) versus long-term growth fear (Gold rising). Don’t forget that people choosing to invest in Gold are explicitly making a decision to invest in a relatively unproductive asset instead of high-growth companies like Hedgeye.


These people who are running around like chickens with their heads cut off saying the stock market falling is all about “the cliff” should also be reminded that Gold was down for 4 consecutive weeks into the US Election.  


Is Obama’s win bullish for Gold? Is it bearish for growth? Ask the bond market. If there’s so much “credit risk” now associated with “the cliff”, why are US Treasury Yields falling (and not rising like they did in Europe)?


If you know the answers to all these questions, good – because I don’t. All I know is that after blaming Bush for where he started, President Obama has a wide open opportunity to change growth expectations in this country. Where he finishes matters too.


My immediate-term risk ranges for Gold, Brent (Oil), US Dollar, EUR/USD, UST 10yr Yield, Copper, and the SP500 are now $1712-1745, $105.22-109.72, $80.39-81.28, $1.26-1.28, 1.60-1.71%, $3.41-3.50, and 1364-1406, respectively.


Best of luck out there today,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 26, 2012


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 41 points or 2.21% downside to 1378 and 0.70% upside to 1419.                                                                                                                                                                               















  • YIELD CURVE: 1.40 from 1.42

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Oct. (prior 0)
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Nov. (est. 2.0, prior 1.8)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.75b-$2.25b notes due 2/15/36-11/15/42
  • 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell $32b 3-mo., $28b 6-mo. bills
  • 4pm: USDA crop reports


    • Senate in session, House not in session


  • Shoppers lift Thanksgiving wknd spending 13% to $59.1b
  • ‘Black Friday’ online retail sales rise 26% to $1b
  • PNC’s Twelve Days of Christmas Price Index for 2012
  • ‘Twilight,’ ‘Skyfall’ help push holiday box office to record
  • Knight seen getting buyout offers this wk from Getco, Virtu
  • Baxter said to near deal to buy Sweden’s Gambro for $4b
  • UBS fined $47.6m, faces higher capital level over Adoboli
  • UBS leads Wall Street bid to halt FHFA mortgage-bond suit
  • Cohen’s SAC faces client questions as U.S. investigators circle
  • Euro finance chiefs try again to approve Greek payment
  • China wage gains trimmed by weaker corporate profits


    • Hillenbrand (HI) 4:20pm, $0.44
    • Berry Plastics (BERY), Post-Mkt, $0.28


  • Nickel Glut Recedes as Biggest Metals Loser Rallies: Commodities
  • China Traders to Boost Rubber Imports From Thailand on Price Gap
  • Crude Declines From Three-Day High as European Ministers Meet
  • Copper Falls as Spain May Delay Seeking Bailout From Debt Crisis
  • Gold Retreats From Six-Week High as Steady Dollar Cuts Demand
  • Soybeans Extend Best Week in Three Months on South American Crop
  • Coffee Falls to Nine-Month Low on Vietnam Exports; Cocoa Drops
  • Palm Oil Futures Gain as Four-Day Losing Streak Attracts Buyers
  • Glencore, Vedanta Face Up to 50% Pay-Raise Demand in Zambia
  • Muddy Olam Call Spurred by Rule Accountants Call Ambiguous
  • Pemex Discovers Oil in Region That Could Hold 1 Billion Barrels
  • Japan Aluminum Buyers Said to Get Proposal for 5.5% Fee Cut
  • Europe’s Shale Boom Lies in Sahara as Algeria Woos Exxon: Energy
  • Brent Poised to Oust WTI as Most-Traded Oil




EURO – we shorted the EUR/USD on Friday as intermediate-term TREND resistance of $1.31 remains overhead; immediate-term TRADE resistance was $1.28 (now support), so now we have plenty of duration mismatch in consensus positioning to risk manage a multi-duration range around.





ITALY – reports an all-time low in consumer confidence of 84.8 NOV (vs 86.2 in OCT) – all-time (data set only goes back to 1996) is a long-time as we head into Christmas selling season for Europe; European stocks we’re up huge (on no volume) last wk (+4.0% on the EuroStoxx600, which just made another lower-highs vs SEP).




CHINA – the “China has bottomed” crowd is still looking for that bottom as the Shanghai Comp re-tested her YTD lows last night, closing -0.5% (down -18.1% since the #GrowthSlowing top in March); we need to see consumption taxes (food and energy prices) continue to deflate before we buy anything China/EastAsia.








The Hedgeye Macro Team





The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 26th of November through the 30th is full of critical releases and events. Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.



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