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Volatility (VIX) and the US Dollar Index are both finally seeing an overdue bounce here today. Dollar Up = Stocks Down. There’s nothing new here in terms of the playbook inverse correlation that matters.

What is new is that volume is decelerating on the down moves and accelerating on the up moves. Yesterday’s volume on the NYSE for example was down 34% from Wednesday’s (when the US market was up). On balance, this is bullish for the market – but only at a price. I think the lows for 2009 are locked in, at least for the intermediate term (next 3 months). I think we continue to make higher lows on selloffs, and higher immediate term highs on up days.

Bullish support resides in the range that I have outlined in green below (754-758 in the SP500). There’s TRADE line resistance up at 809 (dotted red line) and TREND line resistance (solid red line) up at 829.

The big meltup and meltdown moves for 2009 are behind us, for now. Trade this very trade-able range. Buy low, sell high.
KM

Keith R. McCullough
CEO & Chief Investment Officer