This note was originally published at 8am on October 25, 2012 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“You can boil down what we're thinking about 2013 to a short statement, and that goes both for economic environment and sales, and that statement is steady-as-she-goes, not much change from 2012.”

– Michael DeWalt, Caterpillar, 10/22/12


This morning, Hedgeye ran a proprietary P/E screen to identify a couple of bargains.  JDS Uniphase (JDSU) is trading at only 3x its 2000 EPS.  Lennar (LEN) is at only 4.5x its 2005 EPS.  Multiples were much higher when those earnings were reported, so today these names are on a big sale.   OK…probably not.  However, those “bargains” highlight the problem with using the peak margins and a simplistic framework to value companies.


The Industrials sector is loaded with mini-bubbles.  Capital equipment goes through replacement cycles, driving sales and margins to very high levels only to have them drop-off following the boom.  Our favorite cycle is shipbuilding.  After World War II, war tonnage was converted to commercial use.  Ships only last for about 30 years, so there was a replacement boom in the mid-1970s.  Tonnage deliveries were nearly three times higher in 1975, at the peak of the boom, than they were in 1980, after the bust.  The industry just had another replacement cycle with deliveries peaking in 2011. The group looks like a promising short today and should be a great long around 2035.    Mark your calendar.


We joke that mining is the world’s second oldest profession and that there is a reason the iron-age was called the iron-age.  Mining is a highly mature industry with long-term cyclical growth slightly below global GDP growth.  It should not boom.  When it does, you know something interesting is going on. 


Mining capital spending is an obvious bubble.  For example, global iron ore output went from ~1 billion tons in 2005 to ~3 billion tons last year.  Capital spending above depreciation at the eight largest miners went from about $10 billion in 2004 to $56 billion in 2011.  And 2004 was a fantastic year for mining capital spending.


Today, Caterpillar is best defined as a manufacturer of mining and resource-related capital equipment.  Among its largest customers are BHP, Rio Tinto, and Vale.   Typical of companies caught up in a boom, CAT has made overpriced acquisitions and added excess capacity to meet peak demand, in our view.  Investors who hold CAT through the down-cycle may end up paying for management’s investment errors in addition to their own.  Buying CAT today is similar to buying Lennar in 2005 or JDSU in 2000.  The peak $9.20/share or so that CAT will likely earn in 2012 may prove just as irrelevant for valuation as any other bubble-driven profit.


The Hedgeye Industrials team hates P/Es.  Extreme profit cyclicality leaves multiples useless in the Industrials sector. We prefer to build DCFs to estimate (wide) valuation ranges.  We forecast reasonable longer-term growth rates, margins, capital needs, and other factors, making assumptions explicit.  November 5th, we are presenting on the Express & Courier Services industry, including Fedex.  Fedex may grow at 2% or 6%, but it isn’t going to grow at 15% in the long-run.  Similarly, global iron ore production is not going to keep tripling every 5 years.  To value CAT by extrapolating recent trends in mining capital investment would be to assume the surface of the earth ends up covered in ferrous rocks.  A normal peak multiple applied to recent profits implicitly makes that assumption.


To note that there is a bubble in many commodities is different from explaining why.  The narratives that drive bubbles tend to be very persuasive and contain much truth.  The internet will revolutionize commerce.  Check.  Home prices rise over time and will be supported by the government.  Check.  A rising middle class in the developing world will need more appliances and cars.  Check.  Narratives allow investors to feel better about applying absurdly simplistic valuation ratios to companies serving highly complex markets. 


We’ll throw out a narrative to explain the commodity bubble to allow CAT short sellers to feel better.  We suspect that the commodity bubble has been driven by world’s second largest economy pegging its currency to the world’s largest economy while the world’s largest economy engages in highly simulative and largely experimental monetary policy.  The peg contributes to inflation in China, which drives savers in China to protect real wealth by investing in property and other hard assets.  Maybe check. Maybe not.


Narratives aside, our view on CAT is straight-forward.  Don’t be the investor who buys a cyclical at a multi-decade peak in margins.  We may well come back to CAT when it hits our proprietary P/E screen in a few years.


Our immediate-term risk ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, EUR/USD, UST 10yr Yield, and the SP500 are now $1699-1733, $106.63-110.71, $79.69-80.25, $1.29-1.31, 1.71-1.89%, and 1401-1419, respectively.


Jay Van Sciver, CFA

Managing Director Industrials


Steady-As-She-Goes? - aa. JAY EL


Steady-As-She-Goes? - aa. Real Time

Macy's: 3 to 1 Downside/Upside. Here's Why...

Takeaway: There are a lot of reasons why we don’t like $Macy’s with a 4-handle, and even have a tough time getting excited about it with a 3-handle.

There are a lot of reasons why we don’t like Macy’s with a 4-handle, and even have a tough time getting excited about it with a 3-handle.


The way we look at it, the best bull case is that even with EBIT down 5% next year (which we think will happen) we still get to earnings being about flat. Due to the debt tender and share repo activity, the financial engineering here rivals what we saw at GPS for much of the past decade. Tack on the potential success of My Macy’s and the Millennial Stores, and we’re looking at yet another year where M comps consistently higher, and add on 100bp leverage in gross margin as a result without commensurate SG&A spend. Add on some financial engineering… and you get to about $4.75 in 2013 earnings – suggesting that the stock is actually trading at 8.5x earnings and 5.5x EBITDA today.


Now comes the very simple bear case. Do you REALLY want to pay 8.5x/5.5x for a department store under the assumption that everything goes absolutely perfect?


This a business that has no square footage growth, no ‘birthright to comp’ in its core, struggles to consistently earn its cost of capital (what happens when lease accounting rules change and M has to account for its property?), and has zero competitive advantage in the core area that will be driving incremental consumer purchases for generations to come – Try as they will with ‘The Millennial store’ and My Macy's, but the reality is that as they grow, our kids are unlikely to go en masse to Macy’s to buy their apparel at a rate greater than what we’re doing today. If they do, it will be the result of some considerable capital investment that we have yet to see (or model). Also, let’s not forget the risk that taking down the target age in these new store concepts has to Macy’s existing customer. They’re smarter than most retailers, but we’ve seen some of the best and brightest fire their customers with horrible circumstances.


Other thoughts to consider.


1)      Estimates Are Too High. We’re modeling flattish earnings in 2013, the consensus is looking for growth of about 18%.


2)       Can't Comp Forever. The Street is banking on another 2-3% comp for Macy’s next year. Seriously? Go back into the pages of retail history and find a time when Macy’s comped up 4-years in a row. Have fun with that research. It’ll take a while.


3)      JCP Matters Now. Is anyone considering that precisely 1-year ago JC Penney started hemorrhaging revenue, and essentially handed over $3bn in sales to anyone who wanted it? We’ll give Macy’s (and GPS) all the credit in the world…they saw the opportunity, and they took it. But JC Penney is coming on strong. What people don’t get is that even if JCP fails miserably in putting the wrong higher-end brands in front of an audience who could care less, the inventory still needs to be sold…somewhere, somehow. To think that this will not come back to haunt M is being intellectually dishonest.


Macy's Definitely Saw A Lift From The JCP Debacle

Macy's: 3 to 1 Downside/Upside. Here's Why... - jcp

Macy's: 3 to 1 Downside/Upside. Here's Why... - m2


4)      How big of a deal is JCP? We’re talking roughly $2.8bn over four quarters if our estimates are right. To put that into context, that equates to about 10% of Macy’s sales right there. We’re not saying that Macy’s got it all – or even half (Heck, KSS comped down during this period so we know it wasn’t them). But 2-3% comp points worth? We think so. Macy’s management won’t agree with that assessment, but the reality is that there is no way for them to know why people walk into their stores, or walk right by. One fact that is impossible to argue with is that we are just beginning to start off on a period where Macy’s needs to comp against these share gains -- whatever they are. Let’s say that they are prepared…I can promise you that all of their competitors are not. Desperate competitors equals an unhealthy environment.


5)      They'll Get It The Painful WayIn the end, we think that if Macy’s wants the comp, they’ll get the comp. But they’ll need to buy it. And we quote CFO Karen Hoguet…
“We’ve consciously tried to bring more goods into the stores to help us transition to the Spring and have more newness as Christmas approaches and for a post-Christmas strategy. So this is a conscious change from what we’ve done in the past.” Much like we see with JCP, the merchandise will need to be sold.


There were a couple of times during the conference call where we heard statements that encouraged us...

a)      It is impressive that over 290 M stores are up and running to support the business in the same way the a DC would otherwise function. That compares to just over 20 a year ago. Definitely great execution there. We’d note, however, that at some point the focus will need to be in getting people genuinely excited about shopping on the site. That’s apparent today, but will be harder to keep it up as the business scales off of such small numbers.


b)      “White space opportunity with the new model they are creating with Finish Line.” Is it any coincidence that Macy’s is doing more of these shops at the same time JCP is becoming the Shop in Shop poster child? This is likely a winner, but likely has more of an investable impact on FINL than it does on M. On the margin, it is probably a slight negative for FL to the extent that 1) it works and 2) it scales.


c)      “We’re trying to see if there are ways of using technology, whether it be through mobile devices or visual or mannequins, digital mannequins and things like that…” Didn’t Ron Johnson say this a year ago? JC Penney is not exactly the beacon of excellence in this industry. These things are cool. But they cost money. It is in line with our view that the cost of growth in this business is going up.


In the end, if our numbers are right, there’s no reason why this stock deserves a double digit multiple on an earnings number that people realize is shrinking. You gotta remember, zero growth retailers have traded at 6x forwarded earnings – several times – and there’s no reason why M can’t test that again. We’ll give the best case earnings of $4.75 a 10x multiple. If you buy today, you’re playing for $7 upside. That’s good, but not when you put a 6x or 7x multiple on an earnings number closer to $3.00. That’s almost 3 to 1 downside/upside for a consensus long at a point when the competitive pressures are going to start coming on strong and M’s revenue base will be assaulted. That sounds dramatic, but we think it’s how you need to contextualize the massive move that JCP is making to kick its merchandise into high gear, and how the competitive landscape will respond.  



In preparation for IGT's F4Q 2012 earnings release Thursday, we’ve put together the recent pertinent forward looking company commentary.




  • "We continued to see positive growth in our global fixed fee installed base, with an increase of 10% this year."
  • "We remain confident that our international business will continue to be a strong contributor to both revenue and earnings moving forward."
  • "The gaming operations environment, particularly in the wide-area progressives, remains extremely competitive."
  • "We expect our fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding to be 291 million shares for fiscal 2012. Inclusive of dividends, we anticipate returning over $0.5 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2012, a clear indication of the strength of our cash flows and confidence in our strategies."
  • [4Q outlook] "I think Double Down is the same. Double Down, we have a couple new products launching in August."
  • "We have a couple thousand, I think, coming in the next quarter, but it's coming into new provinces where we have to get through the compliance process, so those things are in the balance. We have a little bit of Illinois in the fourth quarter. Currently, again, those things sit in the balance in many cases. We've got a couple of new Ohio properties that can go either way in the quarter."
  • "We always hear very optimistic things about the intent to purchase. I think it has been less predictable. You can see in our North American replacements there were very strong shipments this quarter. We felt very good about the replacement market, so I think that that's an indication of confidence. We'd like to see that trend continue. The things that we hear from operators would indicate they'd like to continue to put capital to work, so we just have to get a little help from the economy."
  • "The share repurchase is now factored into our guidance."
  • "It's a fiercely competitive market and probably as competitive as it has ever been."
  • "I'd characterize the VLT and the used unit sales, they're obviously dragging down the ASP. And then absent that, the sales pricing is flat against the backdrop that Patti mentioned on a unit-to-unit basis, with the non-MLD units in the mix higher than we had expected, but essentially pricing flat among those products."
  • "We're obviously handily beating last year on the revenue line, but we're having challenges on the margin associated with game ops and then some of the international product sales, and we expect that those will continue to a degree."
  • "But I think the yield declines are really, it's a three-headed monster for us, right. We have the economy, which I think is having an impact for us. It has been a much more elongated, as we all know, protracted recovery. So the economy is having an impact. The competition is having an impact. There are a lot more choices of games, particularly in the wide-area progressive area. That wide-area progressive business model has been under pressure for some time, and there is a lot of choices there. And then the last is we have a couple of products that aren't performing in that area that we're addressing. We've made some changes. We've made personnel changes and some process changes and some quality testing changes that I think have been long overdue."
  • [2Q SG&A, R&D, D&A good run rates?]  "I think you're going to continue to see some level of growth there as, for example, advertising and selling continue to factor into the Double Down model. But we will continue to make those investments as long as they're accompanied by growth in revenue, which we are seeing."
  • "There's nothing that leads us to believe in any way, shape, or form at the moment that we would have an impairment issue with Double Down."
  • [NA competitive environment]  "I think the competitive environment there has remained relatively constant. So I would say it certainly hasn't decreased, but we haven't really seen a significant uptick either in either discounting or in the sheer volume of competitive product that's available."
  • [Double Downs]  "It's that need to move into the translation era with the product, into new languages... If you looked at English speaking companies, you would see it's the lion's share of the revenue. So that's an area I think that we have to make some improvement in, not just from a product perspective, but from a marketing perspective....(timing of new language conversions) I would say most of it you'll see in calendar year 2013."



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Q&A With Neil Barofsky

Today, we held our expert call with former Special Inspector General of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (SIGTARP) Neil Barofsky for our subscribers. On the call, Barofsky discussed his time as Special Inspector General and the intricacies of working with the Treasury Department and America’s largest banks. He provided an incredible look at how the government and Wall Street work together in times of distress.


After the call, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Barofsky held a Q&A session which we’ve posted below. Enjoy.




Takeaway: A better month than the headline




October GGR grew 3.5%, on the high end of our latest forecast for the month.  After looking through the data, it appears that October data was better than the headline suggests, as Mass volume growth remained strong but VIP hold was lower YoY.  We believe that November growth will pick up to 7-14% growth YoY and continue to accelerate in December.   


We estimate that total direct play this month accounted for 6.3% of the market, compared with 6.6% in October 2011.  The total VIP market held at 2.90% vs. 3.04% in October 2011.  Adjusting for direct play and theoretical hold of 2.85% in both months, October revenues would have increased 7.2% YoY.


Mass revenues continue to come in strong, posting 30% YoY growth.  Slot revenue growth accelerated to 18% YoY to a monthly record of $155MM.  VIP revenues fell 5% in October on flat RC volume and lower YoY hold.


Here are some property observations: 

  • LVS was the clear winner this month, exhibiting the best GGR growth and largest MoM market share gain.  Part of the strength in LVS’s results was due to easy comparisons, as hold was low across the company’s portfolio last October and last month.
  • LVS reached a three year high in market share on Mass revenue and a 2 year high in slot market share  
  • Wynn’s market share set an all-time low of just 10.1%.  Mass share was near the all-time low set in July and down 50bps from the Q3 average. VIP revenue share set an all-time low.  Part of the poor performance was due to low hold.
  • SJM was the only other concessionaire to record a YoY gain in GGR but its Mass share hit an all-time low
  • MGM was also impacted by low hold
  • For Mass growth, MPEL and Galaxy both once again outperformed the market handily



Total table revenues grew 3% in October, a deceleration over September and August growth rates.  Mass revenue growth was strong at 30%, just a little below the 6M trailing average of 31%.  VIP revenues fell 5% YoY, the biggest YoY drop since June 2009.  Over the last 6 months, VIP revenue growth has bounced around between -5% and +7% and averaged less than 1% growth.  The decline was driven by lower YoY hold and flat junket RC volume.  We expect November and December’s growth rate to pick up considerably with December growth better than November’s.



Table revenues grew 54% YoY (Mass +48%; VIP+58%), garnering the best growth in the market. Growth was aided by an easy hold comparison last year.  We estimate that Sands China’s hold in October 2011 was 2.68%, vs 2.94% last month, adjusted for direct play. 

  • Sands table revenue grew 2% YoY, aided by high hold and a very easy comparison. 
    • Mass grew 5%
    • VIP was flat YoY.  We estimate that Sands held at 3.16% in October compared to 2.13% in the same period last year.  We assume 9% direct play in October vs. 12% in October 2011.
    • Junket RC plunged 30% YoY; aside from September, 10 of the 11 trailing months have seen YoY declines in RC volume. 
  • Venetian table grew 1% YoY, helped by high hold.
    • Mass increased 2%, the property’s lowest growth rate since July 2009
    • VIP was flat
    • Junket VIP RC fell 18%, marking the 9th consecutive month of declines at Venetian.  
    • Assuming 30% direct play, hold was 3.43% compared to 2.91% in October 2011, assuming 28% direct play (in-line with 3Q11)
  • Four Seasons continued to perform well, growing 51% YoY despite very low hold and a difficult hold comparison
    • Mass revenues grew 44%, reversing 2 months of declines
    • VIP grew 53% and Junket VIP RC rose 197% YoY
    • If we assume direct play of 16%, in-line with the first 3Q of 2012, hold in October was just 1.86% vs. 3.01% in October 2011 when direct play was ~27%
  • Sands Cotai Central produced $200MM in October, a record month for the property due in part to high hold and a full month of Phase 2 being open
    • Mass revenue jumped to $72MM, $29MM higher MoM.   
    • VIP revenue of $127MM was a record for the property
    • Junket RC volume of $3,437MM, increased 15% MoM, setting a record for the property
    • If we assume that direct play was 9%, hold would have been 3.39%


  • With a 21% YoY decline, Wynn table revenues had the biggest drop in October, closely followed by MGM.  Part of the poor performance was a result of low hold.
    • Mass was flat – the worst performance of the 6 concessionaires
    • VIP revenues fell 25%. Wynn has had YoY declines in VIP revenues 6 out of the last 7 months
    • Junket RC declined 10%, marking the 6th consecutive month of declines
    • Assuming 10% of total VIP play was direct (in-line with 3Q12), we estimate that hold was 2.45% compared to 2.90% last year (assuming 11% direct play – in-line with 4Q11)


MPEL table revenue fell 2%.  Hold across MPEL’s 2 properties was comparable YoY at 3.06% vs. 3.10% last year.

  • Altira revenues fell 4%, due to a 6% decrease in VIP.  Mass grew 19%. 
    • VIP RC decreased 12%, marking the 11th consecutive month of declines which have averaged -19%
    • We estimate that hold was 3.02%, compared to 2.88% in the prior year
  • CoD table revenues were flat
    • Mass revenue grew an impressive 42%, while VIP revenue fell 11%
    • RC fell 5%
    • Assuming a 15% direct play level, hold was 3.08% in October compared to 3.24% last year (assuming 15% direct play levels in-line with 4Q11)


Table revenue grew 7%, producing the second best results in the market

  • Mass revenue was up 16% and VIP revenue grew 3%
  • Junket RC grew 2%, breaking the trend of 8 months of consecutive declines for VIP volume across SJM’s portfolio.  Aside from LVS, SJM was the only other concessionaire to report growth in RC volumes.
  • Hold was 2.87%, compared with 2.82% last October


Galaxy’s table revenue fell 5%, the company’s first decline in table revenues since June 2009.  Mass growth still led the market with 49% which was offset by a 15% decline in VIP growth.  Galaxy's hold at its 2 owned properties was 3.27% vs 3.21% in Oct 2011.

  • StarWorld table revenues fell 31%, marking the 4th consecutive month of declines
    • Mass grew 56%, offset by a 37% drop in VIP
    • Junket RC fell 21%, marking the 5th month of consecutive declines
    • Hold was low at 2.47% and the comp was difficult at 3.14% last October
  • Galaxy Macau's table revenues grew 19%.
    • Mass grew 53%
    • VIP grew 12%, while RC declined 4%, marking the 3rd consecutive month of declines
    • Hold was high in October at 3.98% vs 3.28% last year


MGM was the second worst performer in October with table revenue falling 20% in October.  The decrease was due to low hold and a difficult hold comparison.

  • Mass revenue grew 29%
  • VIP revenue fell 28% while VIP RC were flat.
  • If direct play was 8%, then October hold was 2.57% compared to 3.52% last year





In addition to generating the best GGR growth, LVS also had the largest MoM share growth, closing the month at 20.9%, up 3.2%.  October’s share was better than its 6 month trailing market share of 19.1% and better than Sands’ 2011 average share of 15.7%.

  • Sands' share fell 3.5%, down 1% MoM.  For comparison purposes, 2011 share was 4.6% and 6M trailing average share was 3.8%.
    • Mass share fell to 5.3%
    • VIP rev share fell 1.2% to 2.8%
    • RC share was 2.4%, down 1.1% MoM, in-line with the property's prior low hit in February 2012
  • Venetian’s share increased 50bps to 7.9%.  2011 share was 8.4% and 6 month trailing share was 7.7%.
    • Mass share fell 1.5% to 12.2%, the property's lowest market share since opening
    • VIP share increased 1.4% to 6.2%
    • Junket RC share ticked down 10bps to 3.9%
  • FS increased 70bps to 2.9%.  This compares to 2011 share of 2.2% and 6M trailing average share of 2.9%.
    • VIP share decreased 50bps to 3.1%. 
    • Mass share doubled to 2.6%, the property's second highest share after December 2008 (2.8%)
    • Junket RC increased 60bps to 4.3%
  • Sands Cotai Central's table market share grew to a record 6.0% in October from 3.2% in September and the 6M trailing average share of 4.3%.
    • Mass share of 7.7%, marking a property record and coming in just 30bps short of Wynn’s share
    • VIP share of 5.4%, a property record
    • Junket RC share ticked down 20bps or 4.5%, taking the top spot in terms of market share amongst Sands' properties


Wynn was the biggest share loser, dropping 2.7% to 10.1% in October, partly due to low hold.  October marked Wynn’s lowest share since its first full month of operations.  As a point of reference Wynn’s 2011 average of 14.1% and their 6-month trailing average is 11.6%. 

  • Mass market share fell 70bps to 8.0%, just 10bps above their all time low set in July
  • VIP market share plunged 3.8% to 10.7%, an all-time low for Wynn
  • Junket RC share decreased 40bps to 12.2%


MPEL lost 20bps of share in October to 14.0%, above their 6 month trailing share of 13.3% but below their 2011 share of 14.8%. 

  • Altira’s share fell 10bps to 4.3%, above its 6M trailing share of 3.8% but below their 2011 share of 5.3%. 
    • Mass share ticked up 10bps to 1.4%
    • VIP fell 20bps to 5.5%
    • VIP RC share increased 10bps to 5.4%
  • CoD’s share fell 10bps to 9.6%.  October’s share was above the property’s 2011 and 6M trailing share of 9.3% and 9.4%, respectively.
    • Mass market share increased 1.0% to 10.0%
    • VIP share fell 50bps to 9.4%
    • Junket share fell 60bps to 8.1%


SJM’s share decreased 30bps to 26.9%.  October’s share compares to its 2011 average of 29.2% and 6M trailing average of 26.6%.

  • Mass market share declined 1.8% to 30.2%, an all-time company low
  • VIP share increased 50bps to 26.6%
  • Junket RC share increased 1.9% to 28.7%


Galaxy's share grew 1% to 19.2% in October, but was still below its 6M trailing share average of 19.7%

  • Galaxy Macau's share grew 1.9% to 12.2%, aided by high hold close to 4%.
    • Mass share grew 50bps to 9.7%
    • VIP share increased 2.5% to 13.2%
    • RC share fell 50bps to 10.5%, marking the 5th consecutive month of share declines
  • Starworld's share dropped 80bps to 6.2%, the property's lowest share since July 2008
    • Mass share increased 30bps to 3.5%
    • VIP share dropped 1.4% to 7.3%
    • RC share fell 20bps to 9.1%


MGM lost 90bps of share to 8.9% in October, below its 6M average of 9.7% and 2011 share of 10.5%.

  • Mass share fell 80bps to 6.9%
  • VIP share declined 1.1% to 9.2%
  • Junket RC grew 70bps to 10.3%




Slot revenue grew 18% YoY to $155MM in October, hitting an all-time market high.

  • LVS took the top prize for YoY growth of 51% to $51MM, a company record.
  • MGM had the second best growth YoY at 23% to $25MM, an all-time property high
  • MPEL grew 14% YoY to $26MM
  • Galaxy’s slot revenue grew 11% to $18MM, also setting a company record
  • SJM grew 4% to $15MM
  • WYNN had the worst YoY performance in slots with a 14% YoY decline to $21MM  







Energy Expert Call: Misconceptions in the Oil Market

Energy Expert Call: Misconceptions in the Oil Market - AA


Whether oil bull or bear, any investor involved or interested in energy markets should listen to this call. Chris Cook is experienced, unbiased and thoughtful.


"The end game is about to begin. On the one hand you have the noise and rhetoric.  Greedy speculators gouging gasoline prices; mad mullahs preparing to wipe Israel off the map; bunker buster bombs and fleets being positioned; huge demand for oil from the BRIC countries; China's insatiable thirst for oil; the oil price will head for $200 a barrel and will never again fall below $130... On the other hand you have the reality..."   

                                                        -Chris Cook



The Hedgeye Energy Team will be hosting an Expert Call on the Misconceptions in the Oil Market at 1:00pm EST on Monday, November 12th. The call will feature Chris Cook, former Compliance and Market Supervision Director of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Mr. Cook is now a strategic market consultant, commentator and entrepreneur. He specializes in many facets of global commodity markets, with a particular focus on how geopolitics, speculators, and central banks impact the crude oil prices. His views on the oil market are both fascinating and controversial. 


Key topics will include: 

  • The past, present, and future of global oil prices
  • Geopolitical factors influencing the oil markets, including the impact of the sanctions on Iran and the motives of the Saudis
  • Demand and inventories
  • Impacts of quantitative easing and the new political agenda  


Please dial in 5-10 minutes prior to the 1:00pm EST start time using the number provided below. Contact  if you have any further questions. 

  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 166147#


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