This note was originally published at 8am on October 17, 2012 for Hedgeye subscribers.
“The first duty of a man is the seeking after and investigation of truth.”
Hail Mary end-zone finale to Packers/Seahawks? Last night’s end to the Presidential Debate was not, but Candy Crowley played the role of an NFL replacement ref, turning what I had scored as a tie into a late Obama win.
What is the truth in America? Was the moderator “fact-checking” Romney into the boards at the most critical point of the debate fair? Does it matter? Like many journalists in the manic media, Candy knows where her bread is buttered. Maintaining access to the party in power = priority #1. Sadly, for the country, that included her on-the-fly interpretation of Romney vs Obama truth.
Not surprisingly, the stock, currency, and commodity markets front-ran the momentum swing of the debate. It was a marginal win for Obama, but what happens on the margin in Macro matters most. What’s good (on the margin) for Obama, is bad for the US Dollar. It has been since he took office. Partisan Republicans may disagree with me on last night’s score; the market doesn’t.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
With the SP500 inverse correlation to the US Dollar of -0.95 right now, the truth is that if you get the immediate-term moves in the US Dollar right, you’ll get a lot of other things right. That’s the only reason why I feel compelled to score political momentum right now.
Perversely (even though I think Gold is in a long-term bubble) that’s why I bought Gold in front of last night’s debate. Obama up = Dollar down = Gold Up. Bubbles can remain bubbles for as long as causality (policies to debauch the Dollar) remains intact.
As I investigate other truths this morning, here are some big ones:
1. #EarningsSlowing – this is our top Hedgeye Global Macro Theme for Q4 2012 (send sales@Hedgeye.com an email if you want the slide-deck; I did meetings all day in Boston yesterday and we came away with plenty more long-cycle ideas to discuss on peak US Corporate margins). #EarningsSlowing remains very relevant this morning with both Intel (INTC) and IBM reiterating the same.
2. Tech Stocks (XLK) – if you didn’t know global growth slowing would translate into +/- GDP businesses (semis, hardware, etc.) seeing top and bottom line slowdowns, now you know. Tech is down -2.4% for October.
3. The sun rises in the East
While Obama, Geithner, and Bernanke continue to believe that they can “smooth” the economic cycle (Keynesian Economics 101), points #1 and #2 are now colliding with point #3 (gravity). The stock market hasn’t been the economy in 2012 but, eventually, they’ll collide.
What’s the market’s truth (last price) telling you this morning?
- Lower-highs in stocks (globally)
- Higher-lows in bonds (globally)
- EUR/USD testing its TAIL risk line of resistance
On that last point, I can’t overstate how important the next currency move is from here.
A) IF the US Dollar snaps its TAIL line of support ($78.11)
B) AND the Euro (vs USD) breaks out above its TAIL risk line of resistance ($1.31)
C) THEN the market is probably telling you that Obama is going to win the Election
Four more years of the same (Big Government Interventions, Spending, and Regulation/Rule-Making on-the-fly) might actually be fantastic for the stock market – but it will continue to crush both real (inflation adjusted) economic growth, hiring, and confidence. I wonder what the 47% think about that?
Collectively, the American people aren’t as dumb as some of the media’s partisans. I highly doubt they’ll trust the stock market anymore today than they didn’t yesterday (stocks at 5yr highs = Equity Fund outflows and Financial Media ratings at YTD lows).
If you didn’t know Candy’s role in the debate was as politically rigged as Bernanke’s has been at the Fed, now you know that too. The truth about America 2.0: your un-elected and un-accountable pundits and politicians are running the gong-show.
My immediate-term risk ranges of support and resistance for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, EUR/USD, UST 10yr Yield, Russell2000, and the SP500 are now $1734-1766, $112.60-115.26, $79.08-80.07, $1.29-1.31, 1.64-1.76%, 813-842, and 1419-1469, respectively.
Best of luck out there today,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer