THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 15, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 26 points or -0.67% downside to 1419 and 1.15% upside to 1445. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 10/12 NYSE -830
    • Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 909
  • VOLUME: on 10/12 NYSE 624.50
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -3.43%
  • VIX:  as of 10/12 was at 16.14
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 3.53%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -31.03%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 10/12 closed at 2.13
    • Up from the day prior at 1.72

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


BONDS – US Treasuries don’t care much for the up EuroStoxx, up SP Futures thing; 10yr yield hasn’t budged a beep this morning after falling back to 1.66% from 1.74% last week. Lower-highs US stocks as bonds make higher-lows. #GrowthSlowing, globally.

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 23.25
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.67%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.66%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.41
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.40

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 8am: Fed’s Lacker at NABE in New York
  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Oct., est. -4.8 (prior -10.41)
  • 8:30am: Advance Retail Sales, Sept., est. 0.8% (prior 0.9%)
  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Ex-Autos, Sept., est. 0.6% (prior 0.8%)
  • 10am: Business Inventories, Aug., est. 0.5% (prior 0.8%)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $4.25b-$5.25b notes due 10/31/2018-8/15/2020
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $32b 3-month bills, $28b 6-month bills
  • 12:45pm: Fed’s Dudley in Virginia on economy
  • 1:10pm: Fed’s Bullard in St. Louis on economy
  • 8:30pm: Fed’s Williams in San Francisco on economy

 GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate not in session
    • Congressional candidates, political action committees file quarterly report to Federal Election Commission, as will Romney Victory, the joint fundraising committee for GOP nominee Mitt Romney, Republican National Committee, state parties
    • U.S. Chamber of Commerce unveils International Index of Energy Security Risk on global markets, 9am

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Softbank agreed to pay $20.1b to buy a 70% stake in Sprint
  • U.S. retail sales probably rose in Sept. for a 3rd month
  • Greece’s 10-yr yield falls to lowest since debt restructuring
  • China’s exports, money supply grew more than est. in Sept.
  • Japan said to plan $2.5b Renesas bid as early as Nov.
  • Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said the world is “awfully close” to a recession
  • “Taken 2” top movie for 2nd weekend with sales of $22.5m
  • Douglas Holding receives $1.9b bid from Advent-controlled companies
  • Apple appeals Tokyo court ruling on Samsung patent case
  • Lifetech Scientific Investor sells 19% stake for HK361m
  • Credit card monthly charge-offs, delinquencies to be released
  • Verizon begins defense of $9.5b trial on Idearc spinoff
  • Nike, RadioShack, Anheuser-Busch Stand by Armstrong: FT

 EARNINGS:

    • Citigroup (C) 8am, $0.97 - Preview
    • Gannett (GCI) 8:30am, $0.53
    • Charles Schwab (SCHW) 8:45am, $0.17
    • Packaging Corp. of America (PKG) 5pm, $0.56
    • Valmont Industries (VMI) 5:30pm, $2.05
    • Brown & Brown (BRO) After-mkt, $0.35

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)    

  • Oil Trades Near Four-Day Low Amid Global Economic Growth Concern
  • Bullish Wagers Drop to Eight-Week Low Before Rally: Commodities
  • Copper Erases Decline as Buyers in Europe Take Advantage of Drop
  • European Naphtha Cargoes Shipped to Asia Set to Rise in October
  • Gold Declines With Commodities; Silver Falls to a One-Month Low
  • Soybeans Drop Below $15 for First Time Since July as Crops Slide
  • Cocoa Falls Before U.S., Europe Processing Data; Sugar Retreats
  • LME’s O’Hegarty Says a Lot of Regulation Happening in ‘Hurry’
  • U.S. Plunge in Gas Drilling Means $1 Billion Lost Profit: Energy
  • China Boosts Soybean Imports as Reduced Supplies Spur Purchases
  • Qatar Is Favorable to Glencore-Xstrata Deal, Prime Minister Says
  • Potash Inventory Up 50% in Brazil, 33% in India Through August
  • Silver to Extend Drop Before Rally Resumes: Technical Analysis
  • Tropical Storm Rafael Nears Hurricane Strength in Atlantic
  • LME’s Martin Abbott Expects Record Trading Volume This Year

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


GERMANY – snapped TRADE line support of 7316 last wk and is struggling to get back above that this  morn despite the no-volume rally in European Equities to start the wk; EuroStoxx600 was -1.7% last wk and we’ve seen these Monday rallies in Europe fade in recent weeks, so watching levels here will be important.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


KOSPI – continued to struggle overnight, down another –0.4% and at 1925 is now decisively below our 1976 TRADE line of resistance; like Tech (XLK), which is down -3.5% in the last mth, this is a new growth scare for what was working.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more