Takeaway: $JPM - It looks to us like the company will beat estimates by 4-8 cents net of one time items and DVA, primarily on reserve release (again).

This note was originally published October 11, 2012 at 13:48 in Financials

Key Drivers of the Quarter:


* NIM - Consensus is too bullish. Consensus is looking for 2.46% vs. last quarter's 2.47%. This may be optimistic. In the chart below we take a look at the trendline in JPMorgan's net interest margin since 1Q10. It's been decreasing at a rate of 8 bps per quarter, and should be at 2.39% in 3Q12. We realize the company chalked up a portion of 2Q12's NIM decline to hedge ineffectiveness that should reverse in 3Q. That's possible, and clearly what the street has modeled, but it's also possible that the ongoing QoQ compression in the yield curve robs them of another 8 bps. 




* Loan Growth - Consensus may be too bullish. Consensus is looking for 1.56% sequential loan growth, whereas the trend line would suggest 0.85% QoQ growth. It's certainly possible that the company could have chosen to originate and retain a larger amount of mortgages this quarter. It would make sense to do so - it would help both their NIM and loan growth, and they certainly wouldn't have had to compete aggressively to do so with mortgage volume up 70% YoY in 3Q. That said, the trendline suggests that Consensus is looking for roughly double what the company has delivered in the last 8 quarters.




* Net Interest Income - Consensus is too Bullish. With margin and loan growth expectations rather high, we think the product of those two variables is also too high. Consensus is modeling $11.32 billion in net interest income, but if we're right on margins (down 8 bps QoQ) and loan growth (+85 bps QoQ) then NII should look more like $10.84 billion. That shortfall of $478 million equates to around 8 cents per share after-tax. A more simplistic approach of just trend-lining the NII yields a slightly less pessimistic scenario of -$270 million, or 4-5 cents per share after tax (we show this in the chart below). 




* Non-interest Income - Unclear. Consensus is looking for $13.02 billion, which is up $2 billion from $11.03 billion in 2Q12. Obviously the big wildcard here is how much is being modeled for further CIO losses and how much will there actually be. The company has said to expect another $1.7 billion in losses in a worst case scenario. It's unclear what the street is modeling on this line, making apples to apples comparisons difficult. Mortgage banking will be the other line that should show notable sequential change. We're estimating mortgage banking revenue may be higher by $250-500 million sequentially. Given the uncertainty around CIO, we think investors will be focused on the core numbers here. Outside of a potential CIO surprise (up or down), we see little reason to think non-interest will be a disappointment vs. expectations this quarter.


* Credit - Consensus is too Bearish. Consensus is looking for $1.37 billion in provision expense and $741 million in reserve release. As we published in our H8-based sector preview a few days ago, we think the Street is underestimating reserve release by almost 60%. Collectively, the street is looking for $2.3 billion in reserve release, whereas the H8 is suggesting a number closer to $5.4 billion. If we assume that as a proxy for JPMorgan, then the actual reserve release should be closer to $1.7 billion, or roughly $1 billion higher. This should add roughly 17 cents to the bottom line print vs. expectations.




*Opex - Consensus is about right. Consensus is modeling $15.45 billion in 3Q12 operating expense. This compares with 2Q12 opex of $14.97 billion. The company has given guidance on this line to expect operating expenses to be flat with 1H12 levels, which averaged $15.2 billion, exclusive of $3 billion in litigation reserve build. The rationale given was higher legal costs and mortgage production-related expenses, both of which seem to be playing out as expected based on the news flow intra-quarter. For reference, this is also fairly consistent with the last 10 quarters trendline, which would suggest a 3Q12 opex of $15.6 billion. As such, it looks like consensus may be overestimating operating expenses by roughly $250 million. Obviously there's the potential that the company is guiding conservatively here. 


* Bottom line - Consensus is too Bearish. With all the big pieces being considered, it looks to us like the company will beat estimates by 4-8 cents net of one time items and DVA, primarily on reserve release (again). That said, there will be a eye-popping number of one-time items and adjustments necessary to get from the reported number to the real number. We think the JPMorgan print will set the tone for a generally positive 3Q12 earnings season from the Financials.


* Sector Strategic Outlook. As we see it, there are five key, positive tailwinds for the Financials and only one big headwind. The tailwinds we see are: (1) Political, Romney's momentum is finding its way into multiples, (2) Jobs, jobless claims are moving lower and have a tailwind through February, (3) Housing, collateral values are stabilizing and transaction activity is improving. Autocorrelation is the most important factor in housing, (4) QE Infinity, Financial stocks love QE for multiple reasons: it's inflationary, it bids up their securities holdings, (5) Earnings, as enumerated above, we think the earnings season will be, on balance, positive for the Financials. Against this, we see one very large risk: The Fiscal Cliff. Our macro team has written extensively on this subject. 


From a timing standpoint, we see upside between here to the election driven by earnings, QE and the election, but after the election we would be very cautious until the market has a clear understanding of what to expect from Congress and the President on the Cliff.


Joshua Steiner, CFA



Robert Belsky


FNP: The Y Chromosome

Takeaway: Here's a peek inside a Jack Spade store for those not fortunate enough to have been in one. It's a big idea. $FNP

We think that Kate Spade is one of the most exciting growth stories in retail today. But most people overlook the fact that there is a Y Chromosome element component of Kate Spade. His name is Jack. With less than a dozen stores open thus far, it has justifiably been under the radar. But one thing is unusual about Jack. With so few stores and virtually no critical mass, it is making money.    


A store opened up 5 days ago in New Canaan, CT, and has seemingly gotten off to a very good start. A few thoughts...


1. Only 15-20% of the store is merchandise that falls into the 'murse' category. These guys 'get it' that we cannot expect men to buy leather goods to the same extent that women do. 


2. The biggest takeaway is how pristine the merchandising approach is. Look at t he first snapshot below. They don't simply unpack boxes and fill the shelves and racks with goods. Rather, they have each item in every size on the rack. No more and no less. Your size is there to try on, and then the item you buy comes from the stock room with the original unit going back to the rack. It simply looks crisp and neat. It's an approach that most brands wish they could execute like this.


3. The best selling item in the store is a $750 'hard fabric' jacket that is a collaboration with hunting brand Barbour. Jack takes the product, slims it down, tweaks the colors, and makes the fabric more fashion forward. It's quite impressive. 


4. Great collection of wallets -- all at price points below $100.


5. Most murses are in the $200-$400 range. They're definitely not yet tapping into the upper echelons of price points in leather goods. 


We fully realize that this is a) a single anecdotal view as it relates to Jack Spade, and b) minute as it relates to the bigger issues related to investing in FNP today (ie Juicy blowing up). But great retail concepts are rare. This is one of them.



This is about as clean as it gets. Small, medium and large. If you buy it, they get one from the stock room for you.

FNP: The Y Chromosome - 10 11 2012 3 18 32 PM


Slightly distorted  (thank you iPhone 5) panoramic view of one side of the store.

FNP: The Y Chromosome - js2

The Snuffleupagus Election

Takeaway: The data doesn’t support a Romney Presidency, but the likelihood of a Democratic sweep is likely now off the table.

You would basically have to be in a dark cave in Tora Bora to have not been exposed to the undue attention that has been attributed to Big Bird since the first Presidential debate.  The furor over the yellow feathered Sesame Street character was kicked off when Governor Romney indicated that he would end the funding for PBS, even though he personally likes Big Bird.


The President’s campaign has since grabbed on to that comment and created negative advertisements implying that Romney is focused on Big Bird when he should be focused on more critical issues, like the fat cat bankers on Wall Street.   As one advertisement said:


“Mitt Romney would have you think it’s not Wall Street you have to worry about, it’s Sesame Street.”

Naturally, this line of attack has led to an opening for the Romney camp as well.  On the stump, Romney has now been emphasizing that “the President has been focused on saving Big Bird for the last week when there are important issues to discuss”.


You gotta love politics!


Increasingly, we think Big Bird is much less relevant than Aloysius Snuffleupagus, more commonly known as Snuffy.  As many of you recall, Snuffy was a wooly mammoth without tusks or visible ears on Sesame Street.   For a long time, Big Bird was actually the only character that ever saw Snuffy.  On many levels, Snuffy may be a better metaphor for this election than Big Bird. 


To be clear, the debate, or the Big Bird event, has had a definite impact on the election.   The aggregate polls have swung almost 5 points towards Romney.  The bigger issue may well be that which is unsaid, or unseen, i.e. the Snuffy Factor.  In our view, this could be that the electorate is much more fickly than in prior years.


Ahead of the debate, we were increasingly convinced that Obama would win the election and that the concept of a Democratic sweep was seriously on the table.  Two weeks later, the numbers tell us a very different story.  We’ve outlined some of the key shifts below.


National Polls


In the Hedgeye National Poll aggregate, Romney has gone from being down -4 points prior to the debate to being up +1 post debate.  In the last six national polls taken, Romney leads in three, two are tied, and one has Obama ahead.  This is the first true lead of the race for Romney.  It is likely these national polls narrow again over the coming days.  Nonetheless, this type of a bounce from a debate is basically unprecedented.


The recent poll from TIPP is likely a poll that is very alarming to Democrats and also instructive as to the direction this race is going.  This poll has Romney up +5 among likely voters and has him up an amazing +20 points among independents.   A lead of this size is interesting in that the poll itself polled 39% Democrats and 31% Republicans, so it meaningfully oversampled Democrats.


The Snuffleupagus Election - 1


Electoral College


National polls are often leading indicators for state level polls and we have seen the follow through from Romney’s debate performance.   On September 19th when we held our election outcome call, Obama looked to have 237 Electoral College votes locked.  Currently, based on state level polls, Obama has 201 votes locked and Romney has 181 locked.  That leaves 156 Electoral College votes in the toss up category and a long road for either candidate to the 270 needed to become President.


As we have often said, the road to the Presidency goes through Ohio.  We’ve pasted a chart of Ohio polls below and the story in Ohio is similar to the national race, with the exception being that Obama leads narrowly.  Currently, Obama is +1.3 points in the poll aggregate, though at one point he was up close to +6 points.


The Snuffleupagus Election - 2


Electronic Markets


The electronic predictive markets are the one area in which Obama continues to hold his lead, although it has narrowed considerably. Currently, Obama is at 63% probability of retaining the Presidency.  Prior to the debate he was closer to 75%.  The Iowa futures market, the other prominent electronic predictive market, is also at a 63% probability that the Obama gets re-elected.


Economic Models


Our Hedgeye Election Indicator (HEI) is based on real time economic and market data and it still leans heavily towards Obama.  Similar to the electronic predictive markets, the HEI is currently at 64% and this is just 0.5% below its all-time high.  Intuitively this makes sense as the stock market has been strong and resilient.  Historically, a strong stock market would mean a strong economy, or economic recovery.  Currently, though, there is a disconnect between the stock market economy and the real economy and therefore Obama’s odds may be overstated on the HEI.


In aggregate, there is no doubt that the national race has shifted towards Romney.  It is clear that last week has gone from being a single debate to an event that has changed the course of the race.  Nate Silver, who in our view does an excellent job of analyzing polls, characterized it as follows:


“There is some spotty evidence that Mr. Romney’s bounce may have been as large as five or six points in polls conducted in the 48 hours after the debate, so perhaps the most recent data does reflect something of a comedown for him. But if his bounce started out at five or six points and has now settled in at three or four, that would still reflect an extremely profound swing in the race — consistent with the largest shifts produced by past presidential debates.”


So what is the unknown, or Snuffleupagus, nature of this race? Simply, that neither candidate has won over the electorate.  This fact clearly benefitted Romney in his decisive victory last week.  Conversely, it is also what leaves the door open for Romney.  Currently Obama’s approval rating is 49.8 based on the approval poll aggregate and his favorability rating is 50.8.  Meanwhile, Romney’s favorable rating is 48.5 despite his victory. 


Fickle is as fickle does in a Snuffleupagus Election.


Daryl G. Jones


Director of Research







Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

Playing The Game Of Claims

Today’s initial unemployment claims data fell 28k to 339k, beating expectations but there was a caveat: one “large state” was excluded from this week’s report. This explains much of the week-over-week improvement and when this rogue state is included next week, we should see claims revert higher. 


Jack Welch has been vocal on Twitter in the past week, claiming that the Obama administration is manipulating jobs data in order to make the economy look better. Whether or not Welch is correct is irrelevant because more data keeps coming out that supports his theory.


For now, though, it appears that unemployment claims will continue to trend lower. 


Playing The Game Of Claims  - claims1


Playing The Game Of Claims  - claims2


Playing The Game Of Claims  - claims3

Is Apple King Of The Market?

Apple (AAPL) has been the stock market's darling for the last year or two as everyone pumps up rumors and awaits new iPhone updates. Recently, we've seen pullbacks in Apple and considering that the stock makes up about 1/5th of the S&P Tech sector, it can really move a market. So we've taken a look at Apple, the S&P Tech sector and the S&P 500 to see which has performed best on a year-to-date basis.


The S&P 500 is up +14.6% year-to-date with the XLK up +18.5% during the same time period. And AAPL? Up +56% during the same time. It appears that while AAPL has its ebbs and flows, it still can beat the broader market with ease.


Is Apple King Of The Market? - aapltech

Getting Growth And Earnings Right

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough recently penned an article for discussing the stock market and our economy. His focus is on getting economic growth right and earnings right in order to pick stocks correctly. In line with our thesis of Earnings Slowing, Keith lays out the case for his bearishness on the market, which is comprised of three reasons:


1. Economic growth in the U.S. and globally continues to slow.

2. U.S. corporate earnings slowing is a major market risk.

3. Bernanke’s commodity bubble is primed to deflate.


You can read the full article at

Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.43%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.34%