THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 9, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 16 points or -0.54% downside to 1448 and 0.56% upside to 1464. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 10/08 NYSE -601
    • Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 408
  • VOLUME: on 10/08 NYSE 464.24
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -23.48%
  • VIX:  as of 10/08 was at 15.11
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 5.44%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -35.43%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 10/08 closed at 1.87
    • Down from the day prior at 1.93

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


BONDS – Treasuries start their wk moving back up into the right as 10yr yields drop -5bps to 1.69%; bonds have had #GrowthSlowing right since March. Chasing equity yield/performance is not economic growth.

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 25.40
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.71%
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.74%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.46
    • Down from prior day’s trading at 1.49

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 7:30am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, Sept. est. 93.5
  • 7.45am: ICSC weekly sales
  • 8:00am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Oct. est. 50.0
  • 8:55am: Johnson/Redbook weekly sales
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.75b-$2.25b notes
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $32b 3-mo bills, $28b 6-mo bills
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $32b 3-yr notes
  • 4pm: USDA crop-condition reports
  • 8:30pm: Fed’s Yellen at IMF panel in Tokyo

GOVERNMENT:

    • Jury trial begins in SEC lawsuit against Reserve Primary Fund, Chairman Bruce R. Bent, Vice Chairman Bruce R. Bent II, 9am
    • IRS holds hearing on proposed regulations relating to basis of indebtedness of S corporations to their shareholders, 10am
    • FDIC board meets to consider final rules implementing bank stress tests required under Dodd-Frank Act and on large-bank pricing system for assessments, 10am
    • HHS advisory panel meets on informed consent issues in randomized human trials, 8:30am
    • FAA holds meeting of Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee to discuss export controls, 8am

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • IMF sees alarmingly high risk of deeper global slump
  • IMF: Most advanced nations progressing at deficit cuts
  • Europe salutes Greek budget-cutting, raising aid chances
  • Apollo seeks to avoid housing-market misfire with Realogy IPO
  • Stress Tests for U.S. Banks Face Vote by First of Three Agencies
  • AT&T shares network with IBM to lure more customers to the Cloud
  • Barclays buys ING’s U.K. unit, adding 1.5m clients
  • U.K. August manufacturing output declines more than forecast
  • Climate change threatens central American corn crop, study says
  • Reserve fund faces trial on SEC suit over Lehman Brothers losses
  • Athens preparing for anti-austerity protests aimed at Merkel
  • Alcoa results in PM mark traditional start to earnings season

 EARNINGS:

    • Alcoa (AA) 4:03pm, $0.00
    • Yum Brands (YUM) After-mkt, $0.97

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Oil Halts Two-Day Drop as Optimism on Greece Offsets Oversupply
  • Milk-Cow Drought Culling Accelerates as Prices Jump: Commodities
  • Copper Consumption in China to Drop for First Time Since ‘08
  • Wheat Climbs on Speculation U.S. to Cut Global Supply Estimates
  • Sugar Rises on Speculation Brazil Supply to Tighten; Cocoa Gains
  • Copper Seen Falling for Third Day as IMF Cuts Growth Forecasts
  • Gold Seen Falling in London as Stronger Dollar Curbs Demand
  • Iron-Ore Swaps Seen Rising Highest Since July on Australia Cargo
  • Climate Change Threatens Central American Corn Crop, Study Says
  • Swiss Target Commodities Secrets Risking $21 Billion Hegemony
  • Iran Oil Sanctions Boosting Returns for Nordic American: Freight
  • Platinum Holdings Signal Further Gain in Price: Chart of the Day
  • Africa, Middle East Most Exposed to Rising Food Prices, IMF Says
  • Oil Halts Two-Day Drop on Greece Optimism
  • Iron Ore Seen Dropping Back to $100 on Worldwide Slowdows

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CURRENCIES

 

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


ITALY – even if you believe their GDP numbers, they are still horrendous – Italy reports another sequential slowdown in GDP to -2.6% y/y (with +3% inflation, that’s centrally planned stagflation to me); MIB Index broke its TRADE line of support 3 wks ago; now down -6.5% since the Bernanke SEP top

 

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ASIAN MARKETS

 

JAPAN – down hard again overnight closing down -1.1% (Nikkei down -14.4% since #GrowthSlowing started globally in March); we shorted the Yen again on green yesterday as we expect the Japanese to go full Krugman as the economy slows for the umpteenth time on ZIRP policies that don’t work.

 

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 


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