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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 9, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 16 points or -0.54% downside to 1448 and 0.56% upside to 1464. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 10/08 NYSE -601
    • Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 408
  • VOLUME: on 10/08 NYSE 464.24
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -23.48%
  • VIX:  as of 10/08 was at 15.11
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 5.44%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -35.43%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 10/08 closed at 1.87
    • Down from the day prior at 1.93

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


BONDS – Treasuries start their wk moving back up into the right as 10yr yields drop -5bps to 1.69%; bonds have had #GrowthSlowing right since March. Chasing equity yield/performance is not economic growth.

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 25.40
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.71%
    • Decrease from prior day’s trading of 1.74%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.46
    • Down from prior day’s trading at 1.49

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 7:30am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, Sept. est. 93.5
  • 7.45am: ICSC weekly sales
  • 8:00am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Oct. est. 50.0
  • 8:55am: Johnson/Redbook weekly sales
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.75b-$2.25b notes
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $32b 3-mo bills, $28b 6-mo bills
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $32b 3-yr notes
  • 4pm: USDA crop-condition reports
  • 8:30pm: Fed’s Yellen at IMF panel in Tokyo

GOVERNMENT:

    • Jury trial begins in SEC lawsuit against Reserve Primary Fund, Chairman Bruce R. Bent, Vice Chairman Bruce R. Bent II, 9am
    • IRS holds hearing on proposed regulations relating to basis of indebtedness of S corporations to their shareholders, 10am
    • FDIC board meets to consider final rules implementing bank stress tests required under Dodd-Frank Act and on large-bank pricing system for assessments, 10am
    • HHS advisory panel meets on informed consent issues in randomized human trials, 8:30am
    • FAA holds meeting of Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee to discuss export controls, 8am

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • IMF sees alarmingly high risk of deeper global slump
  • IMF: Most advanced nations progressing at deficit cuts
  • Europe salutes Greek budget-cutting, raising aid chances
  • Apollo seeks to avoid housing-market misfire with Realogy IPO
  • Stress Tests for U.S. Banks Face Vote by First of Three Agencies
  • AT&T shares network with IBM to lure more customers to the Cloud
  • Barclays buys ING’s U.K. unit, adding 1.5m clients
  • U.K. August manufacturing output declines more than forecast
  • Climate change threatens central American corn crop, study says
  • Reserve fund faces trial on SEC suit over Lehman Brothers losses
  • Athens preparing for anti-austerity protests aimed at Merkel
  • Alcoa results in PM mark traditional start to earnings season

 EARNINGS:

    • Alcoa (AA) 4:03pm, $0.00
    • Yum Brands (YUM) After-mkt, $0.97

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Oil Halts Two-Day Drop as Optimism on Greece Offsets Oversupply
  • Milk-Cow Drought Culling Accelerates as Prices Jump: Commodities
  • Copper Consumption in China to Drop for First Time Since ‘08
  • Wheat Climbs on Speculation U.S. to Cut Global Supply Estimates
  • Sugar Rises on Speculation Brazil Supply to Tighten; Cocoa Gains
  • Copper Seen Falling for Third Day as IMF Cuts Growth Forecasts
  • Gold Seen Falling in London as Stronger Dollar Curbs Demand
  • Iron-Ore Swaps Seen Rising Highest Since July on Australia Cargo
  • Climate Change Threatens Central American Corn Crop, Study Says
  • Swiss Target Commodities Secrets Risking $21 Billion Hegemony
  • Iran Oil Sanctions Boosting Returns for Nordic American: Freight
  • Platinum Holdings Signal Further Gain in Price: Chart of the Day
  • Africa, Middle East Most Exposed to Rising Food Prices, IMF Says
  • Oil Halts Two-Day Drop on Greece Optimism
  • Iron Ore Seen Dropping Back to $100 on Worldwide Slowdows

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


ITALY – even if you believe their GDP numbers, they are still horrendous – Italy reports another sequential slowdown in GDP to -2.6% y/y (with +3% inflation, that’s centrally planned stagflation to me); MIB Index broke its TRADE line of support 3 wks ago; now down -6.5% since the Bernanke SEP top

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

JAPAN – down hard again overnight closing down -1.1% (Nikkei down -14.4% since #GrowthSlowing started globally in March); we shorted the Yen again on green yesterday as we expect the Japanese to go full Krugman as the economy slows for the umpteenth time on ZIRP policies that don’t work.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team