THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 8, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.95% downside to 1447 and 0.21% upside to 1464. 

                                      

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 10/05 NYSE 408
    • Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 1384
  • VOLUME: on 10/05 NYSE 606.70
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -10.08%
  • VIX:  as of 10/05 was at 14.33
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -1.51%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -38.76%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 10/05 closed at 1.93
    • Up from the day prior at 1.58

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 25.49
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.74%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.67%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.49
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.43

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • No major U.S. economic data releases scheduled
  • U.S. Economic Data Preview
  • U.S. Rates Weekly Agenda

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Columbus Day holiday; equity markets open, bond markets closed
  • Canadian markets closed for Thanksgiving holiday
  • Allscripts said to get first-round bids from Blackstone, Carlyle
  • Foxconn labor disputes disrupt iPhone production again
  • Europe seeks to contain Spanish troubles as finance chiefs meet
  • Amazon.com to buy Seattle headquarters complex for $1.16b
  • Google to make first entry in credit-card business: FT
  • Neeson gets revenge again as Fox’s ‘Taken 2’ leads wkend
  • American Securities buys auto-parts co. HHI for $750m: WSJ
  • Yahoo buyback urged by holders seeing doubling of shares
  • Gannett, Dish talks extended by several hours
  • Company at center of meningitis outbreak recalls products
  • U.S. Weekly Agendas: Finance, Tech, Consumer, Real Estate, Transports, Media/Entertainment, Health, Industrials, Energy
  • Canada Weekly Agendas: Energy, Mining
  • G-7, IMF Meeting, Nobel Prizes, Sandusky: Week Ahead

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

OIL – get the EUR/USD right, you’ll get a lot of things Oil right; Brent remains under big league pressure post the Bernanke Bubble top (Sep 14 for Commodities, which we’ll host a call on at 130PM today – Q4 Macro Themes) and after breaking its long-term TAIL line of $112.45/barrel support. Copper -1.4% this morn also failed at $3.95 TAIL risk resistance as well.

  • Oil Declines a Second Day on Economic Outlook for Europe, Asia
  • Hedge Funds End Rout as Prices Reach Two-Month Low: Commodities
  • Traders Eye Grains Rebound as Supply Set to Tighten Post Harvest
  • German 2013 Power Declines as European Coal, Carbon Permits Fall
  • 5 Asia Fuel Oil Discount Shrinks; Vitol Buys Gasoil: Oil Products
  • U.K. Within-Day Natural Gas Trades Near Highest in Two Weeks
  • Brent-Nymex WTI Crude Oil Spread Widens to Near One-Year High
  • Coffee Falls on Dollar as Brazil’s Trees Flower; Sugar Drops
  • Iron-Ore Swaps Rise as Chinese Buyers Return After Holidays
  • Palm Oil Drops for First Time in Four Days as Stockpiles Advance
  • China Benchmark Coal Price Rises for First Time in Five Weeks
  • Bullish Gas Wagers Climb First Time Since July: Energy Markets
  • Ghana’s Gold Rush Sparks Conflict With Illegal Chinese Miners
  • Hedge Funds End Rout as Prices Decline
  • Palm Oil Exports From Indonesia Set to Sink Most in Four Months

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CURRENCIES

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


ITALY – Greece is back, Spain to be saved, and Italy? Oh my goodness is the storytelling in Europe getting good – meanwhile Italy leads losers -1.7% this morning after snapping its immediate-term TRADE line of 15,866 3 wks ago – when will they ask?

 

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ASIAN MARKETS


 ASIA – after such a “great” US jobs report, you’d think the world would go straight up – nope; bad jobs report underneath the hood has USA close on the lows and Asia open/close weak across the board: Singapore -1.1%, India -1%, Indonesia -1%, etc.

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team