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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 4, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 18 points or -0.96% downside to 1437 and 0.76% upside to 1462. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 10/03 NYSE -2
    • Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 196
  • VOLUME: on 10/03 NYSE 665.91
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 11.68%
  • VIX:  as of 10/03 was at 15.43
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -1.78%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -34.06%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 10/03 closed at 2.55
    • Down from the day prior at 2.56

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 26.63
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.63%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.61%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.40
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.38

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 7am: Bank of England announces interest rates
  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts Y/y, Sept. (prior -36.9%)
  • 7:45am: ECB announces interest rates
  • 8:30am: ECB’s Draghi holds news conference
  • 8am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, Oct. (prior 50.4)
  • 8:30am: Jobless Claims, Sept. 29 est. 370k (prior 359k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Sept. 30 (-39.6)
  • 10am: Factory Orders, Aug. est. -5.9%  (prior 2.8%)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural gas storage change
  • 11am: U.S. to announce plans for sale 3-yr, 10-yr, 30-yr debt
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.75b-$2.25b notes due 2/15/2036-8/15/2042
  • 2pm: Fed issues minutes of FOMC Meeting
  • 8pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks in Memphis, Tennessee, on economy

GOVERNMENT:

    • SEC member Daniel Gallagher, three officials from agency’s trading and markets unit speak at Sifma market structure conference in New York. 8:45am
    • Cheniere Energy, Royal Dutch Shell, GDF Suez join U.S. Energy Association at conference on global supply. 9am

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Euro-area, England central banks to keep interest rates at record lows, economists say
  • U.S. same-store sales seen slowing in Sept. from August gains
  • Romney debate tactics may put campaign against Obama ’back on track’
  • U.S. shopping center demand slows as consumer spending stalls
  • U.S. consumer credit delinquencies near 6-yr low, bankers say
  • AT&T said to add first Nokia Windows 8 phone for US market
  • Unilever said to put Skippy peanut butter brand up for sale
  • Teva pulls depression drug generic after FDA says not same
  • Spain meets maximum target at bond auction as 3-yr yield rises
  • 3M scraps Avery label-unit deal as antitrust regulators balk
  • Applied Materials to cut 9% of workforce amid slump

EARNINGS:

    • International Speedway (ISCA) 7am, $0.08

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Oil Rises From Biggest Drop in Three Months on Syria Conflict
  • Overlander Leads Sucden to Metals-Trading Dominance
  • Morgan Stanley Backs Gold, Silver, Copper on Demand Outlook
  • Palm Oil Set to Drop After Rebound on Indonesia Tax, Mistry Says
  • Copper Gains in New York as Higher Equities Boost Demand Outlook
  • Soybeans Gain a Second Day as Price Drop May Boost Import Demand
  • Sugar Climbs to Seven-Week High on India’s Imports; Coffee Gains
  • Pan Pacific Said to Offer 15% Cut in Copper Premium for China
  • World Food Prices Jump to Six-Month High as Dairy Costs Rise
  • Iron-Ore Swaps Rise 1.4% in London Trading, Clarkson Data Show
  • Aluminum May Climb to $2,200 on Fibonacci: Technical Analysis
  • Bottom in Coking Coal Price Rests on Supply and Demand Response
  • Danube Decay Hinders Rhine Link to Leave Shippers Blue: Freight
  • Gold Jumps in New York on Signs of India’s Demand, Weaker Dollar

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CURRENCIES

 

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


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ASIAN MARKETS

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team