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HOW THE MIGHTY (GMCR) HAS FALLEN

Takeaway: $GMCR could have further to fall. A "cheap" multiple does not make up for declining margins and uncertain future earnings prospects

Green Mountain is now down 62% since Starbucks announced the arrival of the Verismo home brewing system.   We believe more pain could be on the way for GMCR shareholders.  

 

 

Uncompetitive Brands

 

Green Mountain’s brand portfolio consists largely of regional coffee brands that, even collectively, do not hold a significant share of the overall market.  The brands are as follows: Barista Prima, Café Escapes, Coffee People, Diedrich Coffee, Donut House Collection, Green Mountain Coffee, Green Mountain Naturals, revvTM, Timothy’s, Tully’s, Van Houtte.

 

 

Brewer Margins Declining From Almost Zero to Virtually Zero

 

The management team at Green Mountain has, since beginning its quest to conquer the home brewing segment, ran its business as a razor-razor blade model.  That is, the company has always sold its brewers (razors) at little margin in order to support sales of K-Cups (razor blades). 

 

Starbucks’ new brewer is adding competitive pressure to the home brewer industry and we believe that the Verismo and any further Starbucks machines will pose a significant threat to Green Mountain’s Keurig brewer.  There is a viable argument, that we happen to agree with, that consumer loyalty is more aligned with the coffee than the brewer.  If this is true, it would suggest that the Keurig brewer could struggle to maintain its market share over the longer-term as customers replace their old brewers and new customers purchase their first home brewer based on its compatibility with their favorite brand of coffee.

 

A mere week after Starbucks began taking orders for its Verismo machine, Green Mountain announced discounting in the form of a rebate on some brewer sales.  Management has adopted a defensive tone when addressing concerns about the Verismo’s impact on its business:

 

“…But should something like that happen we have a number of tactical responses, one of which could in fact be deciding to raise the price of the K-Cup brewing system.” – Larry Blanford, CEO of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Piper Jaffray Consumer Conference, June 6, 2012

 

How can they be now discounting their brewers?

 

It seems that the balance of the evidence suggests that an inventory issue may be underlying and discounting already-low-margin brewer sales will almost certainly bring about even lower margins for the company.

 

 

A Contract Manufacturer With Declining Margins

 

Green Mountain is a contract manufacturer for the following brands:  Starbucks, Tazo, The Bigelow, Caribou Coffee, Celestial Seasonings, Dunkin’ Donuts, Emeril’s, Folgers Gourmet Selections, Gloria Jean’s, Kahlua, Millstone, Newman’s Own Organics, Swiss Miss, Twinings of London, and Wolfgang Puck.

 

All of these licensing partners could, at some point in the future, detach themselves from their respective agreements with Green Mountain Coffee Roasters.   It is likely only a matter of time before Starbucks leads the way.  The K-Cup patent expiring alone will cause margins on K-Cups to decline but the possibility of partners such as Starbucks or Dunkin’ walking away would be highly damaging to Green Mountain’s profitability.  We would point to the unraveling of the Starbucks-Kraft agreement as evidence of a lack of leniency on the part of Schultz et al. when it comes to issues involving control of the Starbucks brand and consumers’ experiences of it.

 

Caribou Coffee offered some insight into its relationship with Green Mountain when management said:

 

Additionally, in the early part of this year, the Caribou brand was repositioned within the Green Mountain portfolio to more premium pricing group.  The Caribou brand can command a premium price from consumers, but the retail implementation of the Green Mountain pricing strategy is having a meaningful impact on our club volume, at least, in the near term. This channel represented a large portion of our total business and is the primary driver of our actual and forecasted volume declines.” 

 

The apparent lack of control, on Caribou’s part, over the retail pricing of its own brand, at least in club channels, suggests that Green Mountain could be taking steps to increase the rate of sales growth of its own brands.  While this may the best move in the short term, such a strategy cannot be encouraging for its licensing partners.

 

 

Getting All Done Up For Nothing

 

Green Mountain has been readying itself for near-parabolic growth in demand for its products, ramping up capital spending dramatically over the past two years.  Unfortunately, management’s forecasting of demand has been less-than-stellar, not helped by misaligned compensation incentives, and the company has clearly invested money in anticipation of demand that is not materializing. 

 

 

Rule #1: Don’t Lost Money

 

Many indications point to Green Mountain’s profitability continuing to decline and, we believe, there is a potential for GAAP earnings turning negative in FY13.  The following points underscore our concern:

  • Excess inventories including brewer inventory?
  • The potential for excess K-Cup capacity
  • Increased competition and the potential for lost customers
  • Patent expiration leads to retail price competition
  • Burning cash
  • Owned brand market share losses
  • Declining margins 
  • Management creditability

With the company’s financials almost incomprehensible from an analytical perspective, given the well-documented accounting issues, forecasting earnings for the company has become even more of an art, and even less of a science, than it was before.  With the increasing competition and emerging fragility of Green Mountain’s business becoming clearer, the most significant near-term challenge will most likely be 1QFY13 as the possibility of a disappointing holiday season becomes more distinct for the company. 

 

 

Howard Penney
Managing Director



Rory Green
Analyst




Chart: Brent Crude and the US Dollar Index

Takeaway: Brent crude prices move in the opposite direction of the US Dollar Index.

Below is a chart created by Hedgeye energy analyst Kevin Kaiser -- it shows the relationship between Brent oil prices and the US Dollar Index over  ten-year period. As you can see, Brent crude prices move essentially in the opposite direction of the US Dollar Index.  

 

That means that if the US Dollar strengthens, oil prices are likely to go lower. It's a very telling chart, and is consistent with Keith's adage: "If you get the US Dollar right, you get a lot of other things right."

 

Chart: Brent Crude and the US Dollar Index - brent


Slowing Slots

Takeaway: High-margin slot machines are contributing a lower percentage of total gaming revenue, which is a worrying trend for the gaming industry.

Revenue from high-margin slot machines as a percentage of total gaming revenue has been declining since April 2009 on the Las Vegas strip. This is worrying given the higher margins of slots versus table games.

 

Additionally, the younger generation - post baby-boomers - aren't playing slots, suggesting that this overall trend will continue. MGM is particularly vulnerable to the decline in the contribution of slot machine revenues.

 

Here's a chart that shows this trend over the past few years.

 

Slowing Slots - gaming


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

BKW: Bearish on the King

Takeaway: Hedgeye's restaurant sector team likes Burger King Worldwide ($BKW) on the short side.

Hedgeye's restaurant sector team is bearish on the stock of Burger King Worldwide ($BKW) on all three TRADE, TREND and TAIL durations. Our analysts cite the following reasons:

  • The company simply might be too big to fix. It has been dogged with a number of issues for the past decade, and our analyst remain skeptical that those issues have been resolved conclusively.
  • There appears to be little cash flow for the franchisee to reinvest in his/her own business.
  • Probable higher beef prices over the next few years due to supply issues.
  • Obamacare could add financial strain.
  • McDonald's ($MCD)  is aggressively protecting its market share.

 

Here's our quantitative setup (see chart below) on BKW on a TRADE duration.

 

BKW: Bearish on the King - bkw

 


Buyem! SP500 Levels, Refreshed

Takeaway: If you can’t buyem here, you’re not as bullish as you thought you could be.

POSITIONS: Long Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Apple (AAPL)

 

Our process hasn’t changed; prices have. This meltdown in Bernanke Oil Inflation Expectations is very good for US Consumption (i.e. the 71%).

 

Admittedly, I’m making this call for the month and quarter-end bounce from oversold lows (this is the 7th down day in the last 8 for the SP500). As we’ve just witnessed, however, 25-45 handle moves in the SP500 matter.

 

Across our core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most here:

 

  1. Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1458
  2. Immediate-term TRADE support = 1430
  3. Intermediate-term TREND support = 1419

 

That 1458 TRADE break signal we have you earlier in the week mattered as much as this 1 support zone does. If you can’t buyem here, you’re not as bullish as you thought you could be.


KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Buyem! SP500 Levels, Refreshed - 1


Staples: Coming Unglued?

Takeaway: There is severe risk in Staples ($SPLS) “change everything” move.

Hedgeye's retail sector team says that Staples (SPLS) vast and sweeping restructuring plan, which the giant retailer unveiled earlier this week, looks incredibly risky. 

 

SPLS says it will do the following:

  • Integrate its online and retail offering
  • Increase investment in its online business
  • Reorganize its operations
  • Implement senior leadership changes
  • Start a multi-year cost savings plan
  • Restructure international operations 

Our team says that tackling one of the above items looks risky, but the fact that the company wants to do all of the items above means there is little chance that the company's plans will work - at least not with some more severe pain before it sees any relief.

 

For example, let's look at Staples' online business (see chart below). Online's contribution to the company's overall growth has slowed from 8% per year to only 2% per year in the last two years. Additionally, online sales topped out at 42% of overall sales each of the last two years. If the company spends now on its online operations, it means it will benefit two years from now, not today. 

 

Staples: Coming Unglued?  - spls


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