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EUR/USD: At A Tenuous Price With Catalysts Coming

Takeaway: beware that if $1.29 breaks, the next line of support doesn’t come until $1.26.

Positions in Europe: Short EUR/USD (FXE); Long German Bonds (BUNL)

 

In the chart below we outline our trading levels on the EUR/USD as we head into the week. Our quantitative levels suggest that the cross is broken on the long term TAIL line and that if its immediate term TRADE support level of $1.29 breaks, the next level of support is $1.26. Currently the EUR/USD is at $1.2911.

 

This weekend was packed with noise. The Germans and French in particular continue to be at loggerheads on the timetable and terms of a banking union.

 

On a “single supervisory mechanism” of banks in the Eurozone, Germany remains reluctant to cede control of its banking sector.  It wants the new regulator to concentrate only on the region's biggest banks, perhaps an estimated 20-25 banks. Specifically, Germany’s public-sector banks oppose regulation citing a lower-risk business model. The Germans are setting an expectation that an agreement may not come until next year. On the other hand, the French, in line with the European Commission (EC) positioning, want all banks in the Eurozone (~6,000) to be supervised by the ECB and are signaling that an agreement can be reached over a shorter time horizon than the Germans.

 

This indecision on a banking union was quickly met with rumors of the expansion of the ESM from €500 Billion to €2 Trillion, however without detail on how this expansion would be covered. The ESM is expected to come online on October 8th and we think the rumors reflect the market’s belief that the current size of the ESM is far insufficient to deal with the default and/or bailout needs of Italy and Spain, especially as the EFSF, the only remaining bailout facility (short of a blank check from the IMF), is nearly depleted if it is decided that funding for Spain’s €100 Billion bank recapitalization comes solely from it.

 

Below are a few calendar catalysts to note in the coming week that could influence the cross.

 

Wednesday (9/26)

Greece’s two biggest union have called a 24hr general strike to protest austerity.

 

Germany to sell 5 Billion of 10YR bonds.

 

Thursday (9/27)

Spain’s cabinet is expected to approve the 2013 budget.

 

Italy sells bonds.

 

Friday (9/28)

Spain will release results of stress test on banks (estimates between €60-100 Billion for bank recapitalizations).

 

France presents the country’s 2013 Budget.

 

 

EUR/USD: At A Tenuous Price With Catalysts Coming - 44. eur

 

Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst


CCL YOUTUBE

In preparation for CCL's 3Q earnings release tomorrow, we’ve put together the recent pertinent forward looking company commentary

 

  • "In March, we entered into zero cost collars for an additional 19% of our estimated fuel consumption for the second half of fiscal 2012 and fiscal 2013, bringing the total to approximately 38% for this period. We feel comfortable with this level of protection for the next 18 months."
  • "We also have zero cost collars in place that cover approximately 19% of our estimated fuel consumption for fiscal 2014 and 2015. We will look to opportunistically increase these percentages over time."
  • "The price of Brent was $93 a barrel the other day when we locked off our forecast. The second rule of thumb relates to our current fuel derivatives portfolio where a 10% reduction in the price of Brent for the remaining half of 2012 would result in an additional $0.04 of realized losses on fuel derivatives that would offset the $0.13 per share favorable impact from the reduced price of fuel."
  • "A 10% change in all relevant currencies relating to the U.S. dollar for the remaining half of 2012 would impact our P&L by $0.11 per share."
  • "The significantly higher air costs for North American passengers traveling to Europe caused bookings for these itineraries to slow and resulted in our having to take further price reductions for these programs."
  • "During this past spring North American brands experienced slightly lower pricing than we originally forecasted. North American brand European itineraries experienced the largest declines in pricing, not just because of the slowing North American market but also because of the challenges in locally sourcing business from the softer European markets for these sailings. As a consequence for the remainder of 2012 we have modestly reduced our revenue yield outlook for North American brands for the second half of the year...For the full year North American brand revenue yields are now forecasted to be flat on a year-over-year basis."
  • "Revenue yields for our European brands, excluding Costa, are also forecasted to be slightly lower than previously anticipated primarily due to the significant softening in the Spanish markets. Ibero, our Spanish cruise line has suffered a significant decline in revenue yields. Fortunately there are just three ships operating in the brand so the impact of the struggling Spanish economy on our financial results has not been significant."
  • "We do expect that when year-over-year occupancy levels begin to normalize, Costa's cruise prices for 2013 should start to firm up. Costa's revenue yields for 2012 are forecasted to be down in the mid-teens levels on a year-over-year basis and we expect Costa's operating loss to be in the range of $100 million."
  • "2012 forecasted operating cash flow is expected to be in the range of $3.2 billion, net CapEx for the year is estimated at $1.9 billion, so after the dividend that will leave us with approximately $500 million of free cash flow. 2013, our CapEx is currently estimated at $1.8 billion, so with operating cash flow expected to improve in 2013, there should be further increases in free cash flow come 2013.
  • "(Excluding Costa), we are estimating that Q3 and Q4 yields will be down in the same relative range of 3% to 4%."
  • "We're incentivizing more going into Q3."
  • [Booking ranges for Q3 and Q4] "We are towards the lower end of the ranges (85-95% for Q3, 55-75% for Q4)"
  • [Share repurchase program] "At the moment... $330 million that remains on the program."
  • "We are seeing some increases in onboard. We were very pleased. In fact, we took the guidance up almost a point on onboard from March to the June guidance, so the trend is very favorable and I hope it is a leading indicator."
    • "Onboard was flat on the European brands despite the lower occupancy, so you're actually seeing some additional spending on a per diem basis. So, the onboard spend per person is going up. It was just we had a couple of points less occupancy on the brand. So, flat on a yield basis."
  • "We're very pleased with Australia and it's likely that we may be through the worst part of it in terms of the additional capacity. Next year Carnival brings a ship down to Australia and it's performing very nicely right now, so we're very pleased with Australia. In Asia, it's a pretty positive situation. We moved the largest ship into the China market, the Costa Victoria, and it's doing quite well, and we expect that we would be breakeven this year in Asia or maybe make a little bit of positive cash flow and that looks like it's going to be the case so far. So, bookings – pricing in Asia and Southeast Asia and China is quite good right now."
  • "Beginning next spring, we're bringing a second Costa ship to Asia, the Costa Atlantica"
  • "It's still early because South America season is basically mid December to mid March so it's a very short season and it's still quite early. But, early indications are positive."
  • "Direct bookings last year were 19% of our total business. That has moved up year-over-year. We don't have any specific aspirations. I do expect the number will continue to creep up over time."

 

3Q 2012 excluding Costa

  • "Capacity is expected to increase 2.9%, 3.4% in North America markets and 1.6% in EAA at the current time."
  • "On a fleet-wide basis, third quarter pricing and occupancy is lower than a year ago."
  • "North American brand capacity in the third quarter is 38% in the Caribbean, slightly up from a year ago, 24% in Alaska, slightly higher than a year ago and 25% in Europe, which is about the same as last year. North American brand pricing is lower than a year ago at slightly lower occupancies. Pricing for Caribbean itineraries is in line with a year ago with pricing for both Alaska and European cruises lower versus last year. The occupancies for Caribbean, Alaska cruises are slightly lower versus last year and occupancies for Europe cruises are lower than a year ago."
  • "EAA brand capacity in the third quarter is 85% in European itineraries, up from 82% prior year. EAA brand pricing, this excludes Costa again for European and all other itineraries, is slightly lower than a year ago on slightly lower occupancies. U.K. brands pricing is higher than a year ago and German pricing is slightly lower."

4Q 2012 excluding Costa

  • "Fleet-wide capacity is expected to be 3% to 4% higher than last year. 3.9% of that is for North American brands, 2.1% for EAA." 
  • "Fleet-wide pricing, excluding Costa, is slightly lower than a year ago on lower occupancies." 
  • "North American brands are 43% in the Caribbean, slightly higher than a year ago; 13% in Europe, about the same as last year, the balance is in various other itineraries. North American brand pricing is slightly lower than last year at lower occupancies. Caribbean pricing is higher than a year ago at flat occupancies. Europe pricing is lower versus last year at lower occupancies and pricing for all other itineraries taken together is slightly higher than a year ago on lower occupancies."
  • "EAA pricing in the fourth quarter, and this excludes Costa, is higher versus a year ago at lower occupancies.  Pricing for Europe cruises, which represents 61% of EAA itineraries are slightly higher on lower occupancies. For all other itineraries taken together, pricing is also higher on lower occupancies. Costa's pricing and occupancies are lower than a year ago. Although pricing for Europe brands excluding Costa is higher at the present time because there are more cabins to fill versus last year, we expect pricing for EAA brands to decline as the quarter closes on a fleet-wide basis. Similar to the third quarter, we're forecasting EAA revenue yields excluding Costa to be lower in the fourth quarter."

1Q 2013 including Costa

  • "Fleet-wide capacity for the first quarter of 2013 is expected to be higher by 4%, 3.4% in North America, 4.9% in EAA. Fleetwide occupancies at the present time are lower than a year ago with pricing at the present time slightly lower versus last year."
  • "For North American brands taken together, occupancies are flat year-over-year with overall pricing currently lower. However, pricing is higher for most of the North American brands, but lower in total partly due to itinerary changes and the mix of the four brands pricing."
  • "Revenue yield comparisons for the first quarter of 2013 versus first quarter of 2012 will be more challenging given our stronger first quarter North American yield performance in 1Q 2012."
  • "On a fleet-wide basis, EAA brand occupancies are behind last year with higher pricing. Although still early, pricing on Costa's bookings for Q1 is also higher on a year-over-year basis at lower occupancies."

CCL YOUTUBE - ccl1


Tough Spot: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

Takeaway: Unlike prior months and quarters, Earnings Season is no longer an obvious bullish catalyst.

POSITIONS: Long Utilities (XLU)

 

Today I am registering my 1st sell signal on an immediate-term TRADE break. In other words, what was immediate-term support is now resistance, and unless the market closes > 1458, short-term lower-highs look more likely than they did last week.

 

Across our core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter most:

 

  1. Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1458
  2. Immediate-term TRADE support = 1441
  3. Intermediate-term TREND support = 1419

 

So I’d wait and watch here (stay hedged) for this 1 range to be tested. Unlike prior months and quarters, Earnings Season is no longer an obvious bullish catalyst.

 

#EarningsSlowing.

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Tough Spot: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - SPX


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European Banking Monitor: Well That Was Short Lived – Swaps Blow Out

Takeaway: Draghi’s put is faded.

Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor".  If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email .

 

Key Takeaways:

 

* Bank swaps domestically and in Europe saw significant widening week-over-week as economic uncertainty trumped monetary stimulus relief once again. Sovereign swaps followed suit mostly rising week-over-week. French, Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese sovereign swaps were all wider while Germany and Ireland saw their sovereign swaps tighten. 

 

On OMTs Reporting: The ECB has stated that Aggregate Outright Monetary Transaction holdings and their market values will be published on a weekly basis and the average duration of Outright Monetary Transaction holdings and the breakdown by country will take place on a monthly basis. There is no indication that the OMTs has been initiated.

 

 -------

If you’d like to discuss recent developments in Europe, from the political to financial to social, please let me know and we can set up a call.

 

Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst

 

(o)

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European Financials CDS Monitor – French, German, Italian, Spanish and UK bank swaps all widened last week. 

 

European Banking Monitor: Well That Was Short Lived – Swaps Blow Out - 33. banks

 

Euribor-OIS spread – The Euribor-OIS spread tightened by 1 bps to 15 bps, and is now back at its tightest levels in the last five years. The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. 

 

European Banking Monitor: Well That Was Short Lived – Swaps Blow Out - 33. Euribor

 

ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB.  Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system.  An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing from the ECB.  In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.  

 

European Banking Monitor: Well That Was Short Lived – Swaps Blow Out - 33. facility


Political Policy

RETHINKING POLICY

 

 

CLIENT TALKING POINTS

 

THE GOLDEN AGE

When Ben Bernanke came out to extend QE3, those invested heavily in precious metals, namely gold and silver, rejoiced knowing that burning the buck would inflate prices for the aforementioned metals quite a bit. $2000/oz for gold did not seem like a pipe dream. So when gold and silver make big moves to the downside these days, that’s something that really matters and this morning, there’s a -1-2% drop in both.

 

Should gold continue to fail at its February 2012 all-time highs (read: lower-highs), things will change for the gold bugs very quickly. As Keith mentioned this morning, “...it’s a very lonely camp being short GLD here.”

 

 

POLITICAL POLICY

We really think that Romney would be doing better in the polls these days if he had really pounded the table on getting rid of Ben Bernanke and putting strength back in the US dollar. Our proprietary Hedgeye Election Indicator put Obama at an all time high last week (63%) for his chances of being reelected. Bernanke and Obama are managing to keep the market afloat (just barely) until November. Meanwhile, the US dollar had an up week last week, breaking a 5 week consecutive drop. Should we continue to burn the buck, keep in mind a little thing called correlation risk; you get the dollar right, you get a lot of other things right.

 

_______________________________________________________

 

ASSET ALLOCATION

 

Cash:                Flat

 

U.S. Equities:   Flat

 

Int'l Equities:   Flat   

 

Commodities: Flat

 

Fixed Income:  Flat

 

Int'l Currencies: Flat  

 

 

_______________________________________________________

 

TOP LONG IDEAS

 

NIKE (NKE)

Nike’s challenges are well-telegraphed. But the reality is that its top line is extremely strong, and the Olympics has just given Nike all the ammo it needs to marry product with marketing and grow in the 10% range for the next 2 years. With margin pressures easing, and Cole Haan and Umbro soon to be divested, the model is getting more focused and profitable.

  • TRADE:  LONG
  • TREND:  LONG
  • TAIL:      LONG            

 

PACCAR (PCAR)

Emissions regulations in the US focusing on greenhouse gases should end the disruptive pre-buy cycle and allow PCAR to improve margins. Improved capacity utilization, truck fleet aging, and less volatile used truck prices all should support higher long-run profitability. In the near-term, Paccar may benefit from engine certification issues at Navistar, allowing it to gain market share. Longer-term, Paccar enjos a strong position in a structurally advantaged industry and an attractive valuation.

  • TRADE:  LONG
  • TREND:  LONG
  • TAIL:      LONG

 

LAS VEGAS SANDS (LVS)

LVS finally reached and has maintained its 20% Macau gaming share, thanks to Sands Cotai Central (SCC). With SCC continuing to ramp up, we expect that level to hold and maybe, even improve. Macau sentiment has reached a yearly low but we see improvement ahead.

  • TRADE:  LONG
  • TREND:  NEUTRAL
  • TAIL:      NEUTRAL

  

_______________________________________________________

 

THREE FOR THE ROAD

 

TWEET OF THE DAY

“My $ gets 0 in the bank and inflation is a killer. buying a multi-family in this market w a 2.875% mortgage seems like a good option.” -@HedgeyeEnergy

 

 

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Man has to suffer. When he has no real afflictions, he invents some.” -Jose Marti

                       

 

STAT OF THE DAY

Dow Jones Chicago Fed: Aug National Activity Index -0.87 Vs Jul -0.12

 

 

 


MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT

Takeaway: Economic deterioration seems to have trumped monetary stimulus as swaps mostly widened across the globe.

Key Takeaways

* Bank swaps domestically and in Europe saw significant widening WoW as economic uncertainty trumped monetary stimulus relief once again. Sovereign swaps followed suit mostly rising WoW. French, Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese sovereign swaps were all wider while Germany and Ireland saw their sovereign swaps tighten. 

 

* In Asia, bank swaps were mixed. Chinese bank swaps tightened while Indian bank swaps widened. 

 

* High yield rates increased 8.8 bps last week, ending at 6.59 versus 6.51. 

 

The Euribor-OIS spread tightened by 1 bps to 15 bps, and is now back at its tightest levels in the last five years.

 

* The MCDX, our preferred measure of municipal default risk fell by 3.3% last week. 

 

*Chinese steel prices rose a second consecutive week in a row, increasing by 5.4% WoW.

 

* The 2-10 spread tightened WoW, falling 12 bps. The brief reprieve following the Qe3 seems to be over. 

 

* More risk than reward - Our Macro team’s quantitative setup in the XLF shows 0.6% upside to TRADE resistance and 2.7% downside to TREND support.

 

 

Financial Risk Monitor Summary  

• Short-term(WoW): Positive / 6 of 12 improved / 4 out of 12 worsened / 3 of 12 unchanged  

• Intermediate-term(WoW): Positive / 11 of 12 improved / 1 out of 12 worsened / 1 of 12 unchanged  

• Long-term(WoW): Positive / 6 of 12 improved / 2 out of 12 worsened / 5 of 12 unchanged

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT  - Summary2

 

1. American Financial CDS – The money center banks and large domestic brokers all saw swaps widen materially last week with the average reference entity seeing  a +14.6% increase in swap prices WoW. 

 

Widened the most WoW: WFC, JPM, BAC

Tightened the most WoW: MBI, UNM, AGO

Widened the most/ tightened the least MoM: JPM, WFC, AXP

Tightened the most WoW: GS, AIG, MS

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT  - America

 

2. European Financial CDS – French, German, Italian, Spanish  and UK bank swaps all widened last week. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT  - Europe

 

3.Asian Financial CDS – Asian bank swaps were a mixed bag with Chinese banks tightening and Indian banks widening. Japanese banks were mixed. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT  - Asia

 

4. Sovereign CDS – European sovereign swaps were mostly wider last week with the exception of Germany and Ireland. Spanish, Italian and Portuguese swaps all widened between 20-30 bps last week.  

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT  - Sov Table

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT  - Sov 1

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT  - Sov 2

 

5. High Yield (YTM) Monitor – High Yield rates rose 9 bps last week, ending the week at 6.59% versus 6.50% the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT  - HY

 

6. Leveraged Loan Index Monitor – The Leveraged Loan Index rose 4.6 points last week, ending at 1732.61.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT  - LLI

 

7. TED Spread Monitor – The TED spread fell 2 bps points last week, ending the week at 26.5 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT  - TED Spread

 

8. Journal of Commerce Commodity Price Index – The JOC index rose 0.2 points, ending the week at 5.51 versus 5.3 the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT  - JOC

 

9. Euribor-OIS spread – The Euribor-OIS spread tightened by 1 bps to 15 bps, and is now back at its tightest levels in the last five years. The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT  - Euribor

 

10. ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB.  Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system.  An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing from the ECB.  In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.  

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT  - ECB

 

11. Markit MCDX Index Monitor – Last week spreads tightened 5 bps, ending the week at 132 bps. The Markit MCDX is a measure of municipal credit default swaps. We believe this index is a useful indicator of pressure in state and local governments. Markit publishes index values daily on six 5-year tenor baskets including 50 reference entities each. Each basket includes a diversified pool of revenue and GO bonds from a broad array of states. We track the 16-V1. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT  - MCDX

 

12. Chinese Steel - Steel prices in China rose 5.4% last week, or 188 yuan/ton, to 3665 yuan/ton. This brings the two-week rally to ~8%. However, taking a step back, in the last three months, Chinese construction steel prices have fallen ~10% inclusive of this recent rally. This index is reflecting significant weakness in China's construction market. Chinese steel rebar prices have been generally moving lower since August of last year. We use Chinese steel rebar prices to gauge Chinese construction activity, and, by extension, the health of the Chinese economy.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT  - CHIS

 

13. 2-10 Spread – We track the 2-10 spread as an indicator of bank margin pressure.  Last week the 2-10 spread tightened by 12 bps to 149 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT  - 2 10

 

14. XLF Macro Quantitative Setup – Our Macro team’s quantitative setup in the XLF shows 0.6% upside to TRADE resistance and 2.7% downside to TREND support.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT  - XLF

 

Margin Debt - July: +0.61 standard deviations 

NYSE Margin debt fell  to $278 billion in July from $285 billion in June. We like to to look at margin debt levels as a broad contrarian sentiment indicator. For reference, our approach is to look at margin debt levels in standard deviation terms over the period 1. Our analysis finds that when margin debt gets to +1.5 standard deviations or greater, as it did in April of 2011, it has historically been a signal of significant risk in the equity market. The preceding two instances were followed by the equity market losing roughly half its value over the following 24-36 months. Overall this setup represents a long-term headwind for the market. One limitation of this series is that it is reported on a lag.  The chart shows data through July. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR - WELL THAT WAS SHORT LIVED: SWAPS BLOW OUT  - NYSE margin debt

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Robert Belsky

 

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