THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 21, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 20 points or -0.63% downside to 1451 and 0.74% upside to 1471. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/20 NYSE -623
    • Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 473
  • VOLUME: on 09/20 NYSE 678.75
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 5.44%
  • VIX:  as of 09/20 was at 14.07
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 1.37%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -39.87%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/20 closed at 1.07
    • Down from the day prior at 1.53 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 27.16
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.77%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.76%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.52
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.51 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • U.S. Rates Daily Agenda
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes 11/15/2022-2/15/2031
  • 12:40pm: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Atlanta
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate in session
    • House Financial Services holds hearing on Fed interest rate policy, 9:30am
    • House Ways and Means holds hearing on Medicare Advantage health plans, 9:30am
    • CFTC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 10am
    • State Dept. advisory panel meets at Fed Bank of New York on enforceability of close-out netting, a contractual mechanism used by financial institutions to reduce risk exposure, 10am
    • FDA holds meeting of Orthopaedic and Rehabilitation Devices Panel, 8am
    • FDA holds meeting on generic drug user fees, 9am
    • Energy and Commerce panel holds hearing on FCC handling of LightSquared, 9:30am
    • FCC advisory panel meets on broadband adoption, 2pm
    • FTA Administrator Peter Rogoff addresses Transit Rail Advisory Committee for Safety meeting, 9am
    • Transportation Dept. advisory panel meets on vessel financing, ship capacity for marine highway services, 11am
    • Space Transportation Assoc. holds discussion on launch systems, with NASA program manager Todd May, 11:30am

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Italy, Spain won’t seek aid unless yields surge, official says
  • China central bank adviser sees slowdown persisting into 2013
  • Apple poised to sell 10m iPhones in record debut
  • IPhone 5 restrictions to spark Samsung discounts in Europe
  • Knight names chief risk officer, seeks chief tech officer
  • SEC said to scrutinize private equity on share of fund profits
  • Oracle revenue misses ests. as hardware sales decline
  • UnitedHealth to join DJIA after close of market
  • U.K. posts record Aug. deficit as slump hits tax revenue
  • Fed’s Kocherlakota says battling unemployment may mean keeping interest rates close to zero for 4 years
  • Syngenta to buy biotech seed maker Devgen for $523m
  • Glencore, Xstrata said to meet seperately as deadline looms
  • Wells Fargo loan bias settlement with U.S. wins approval
  • News Corp said to consider giving James Murdoch U.S. TV ops
  • GM reaches 4-yr labor agreement with CAW
  • European Medicines Agency CHMP announcements expected
  • UN, Congress in Recess, Xstrata, Libor: Week Ahead

EARNINGS:

    • Darden Restaurants (DRI) 7am, $0.83
    • KB Home (KBH) 8am, $(0.15)

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

COMMODITIES – evidently Bernanke’s Inflation Policy trade didn’t like a week of the Fed and Hilsenrath saying nothing thereafter; Qe rallies are getting shorter (and steeper); US Dollar having its 1st up wk in the last 7 gets you a CRB pancaked -4.4% for the wk to-date, snapping its TAIL risk line of 308.

  • Gold Bulls Extend Streak as Prices Jump on Stimulus: Commodities
  • Coal Era Beckons for EU as Carbon Giveaway Ends: Energy Markets
  • Crop Prices Probably Peaked After Drought Cuts U.S. Output
  • Bananas in Latin America Crunch as Fyffes Plans to Raise Prices
  • India Wins on Livestock-Feed Exports as Drought Cuts U.S. Crops
  • Gold Seen Gaining in London as Stimulus Spurs Investor Demand
  • U.K. Natural Gas Rises to Seven-Month High on Supply Shortfall
  • Crude Oil Rebounds to Trim Biggest Weekly Decline Since June
  • Copper Stockpiles at Four-Month High in Shanghai; Zinc Drops
  • Cooking-Oil Imports by India Seen at Record as Food Demand Grows
  • China’s Iran Oil Imports Drop to Five-Month Low Amid Sanctions
  • Duke Chief Answers Critics After Coup at Biggest Utility: Energy
  • Cocoa Supply, Demand to Even Out; Pricing Pressures Diminishing
  • Soybeans May Slump 14% After Momentum Stalls: Technical Analysis
  • Corn Heads for Biggest Weekly Loss Since June on Slowing Demand
  • Gold Seen Luring Wealthy as Central Bankers Expand Stimulus

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CURRENCIES


EURO – EUR/USD bounces +0.5% on Spain bailout rumoring; that monster correlation risk FX pair is in a very important positions right now w/ TRADE support of $1.29 under attack at the same time as our long-term TAIL risk line of $1.31.54 remains a wall of resistance; a break and close below $1.29 gets me $1.26, fast – so watch that.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


SPAIN – what would the week have been if we actually went 5 full days with no central planning rumors? Spain gets the bailout begging back into the headlines, and that’s good for a European/US futures bounce; IBEX continues to make lower-highs vs March; its risk range is now 8031-8214; doing nothing in European Equities right now, waiting/watching.

 

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ASIAN MARKETS

 

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


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