TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 21, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 20 points or -0.63% downside to 1451 and 0.74% upside to 1471.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/20 NYSE -623
- Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 473
- VOLUME: on 09/20 NYSE 678.75
- Increase versus prior day’s trading of 5.44%
- VIX: as of 09/20 was at 14.07
- Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 1.37%
- Year-to-date decrease of -39.87%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/20 closed at 1.07
- Down from the day prior at 1.53
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 27.16
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.77%
- Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.76%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.52
- Up from prior day’s trading at 1.51
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- U.S. Rates Daily Agenda
- 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes 11/15/2022-2/15/2031
- 12:40pm: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Atlanta
- 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
GOVERNMENT:
- House, Senate in session
- House Financial Services holds hearing on Fed interest rate policy, 9:30am
- House Ways and Means holds hearing on Medicare Advantage health plans, 9:30am
- CFTC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 10am
- State Dept. advisory panel meets at Fed Bank of New York on enforceability of close-out netting, a contractual mechanism used by financial institutions to reduce risk exposure, 10am
- FDA holds meeting of Orthopaedic and Rehabilitation Devices Panel, 8am
- FDA holds meeting on generic drug user fees, 9am
- Energy and Commerce panel holds hearing on FCC handling of LightSquared, 9:30am
- FCC advisory panel meets on broadband adoption, 2pm
- FTA Administrator Peter Rogoff addresses Transit Rail Advisory Committee for Safety meeting, 9am
- Transportation Dept. advisory panel meets on vessel financing, ship capacity for marine highway services, 11am
- Space Transportation Assoc. holds discussion on launch systems, with NASA program manager Todd May, 11:30am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Italy, Spain won’t seek aid unless yields surge, official says
- China central bank adviser sees slowdown persisting into 2013
- Apple poised to sell 10m iPhones in record debut
- IPhone 5 restrictions to spark Samsung discounts in Europe
- Knight names chief risk officer, seeks chief tech officer
- SEC said to scrutinize private equity on share of fund profits
- Oracle revenue misses ests. as hardware sales decline
- UnitedHealth to join DJIA after close of market
- U.K. posts record Aug. deficit as slump hits tax revenue
- Fed’s Kocherlakota says battling unemployment may mean keeping interest rates close to zero for 4 years
- Syngenta to buy biotech seed maker Devgen for $523m
- Glencore, Xstrata said to meet seperately as deadline looms
- Wells Fargo loan bias settlement with U.S. wins approval
- News Corp said to consider giving James Murdoch U.S. TV ops
- GM reaches 4-yr labor agreement with CAW
- European Medicines Agency CHMP announcements expected
- UN, Congress in Recess, Xstrata, Libor: Week Ahead
EARNINGS:
- Darden Restaurants (DRI) 7am, $0.83
- KB Home (KBH) 8am, $(0.15)
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COMMODITIES – evidently Bernanke’s Inflation Policy trade didn’t like a week of the Fed and Hilsenrath saying nothing thereafter; Qe rallies are getting shorter (and steeper); US Dollar having its 1st up wk in the last 7 gets you a CRB pancaked -4.4% for the wk to-date, snapping its TAIL risk line of 308.
- Gold Bulls Extend Streak as Prices Jump on Stimulus: Commodities
- Coal Era Beckons for EU as Carbon Giveaway Ends: Energy Markets
- Crop Prices Probably Peaked After Drought Cuts U.S. Output
- Bananas in Latin America Crunch as Fyffes Plans to Raise Prices
- India Wins on Livestock-Feed Exports as Drought Cuts U.S. Crops
- Gold Seen Gaining in London as Stimulus Spurs Investor Demand
- U.K. Natural Gas Rises to Seven-Month High on Supply Shortfall
- Crude Oil Rebounds to Trim Biggest Weekly Decline Since June
- Copper Stockpiles at Four-Month High in Shanghai; Zinc Drops
- Cooking-Oil Imports by India Seen at Record as Food Demand Grows
- China’s Iran Oil Imports Drop to Five-Month Low Amid Sanctions
- Duke Chief Answers Critics After Coup at Biggest Utility: Energy
- Cocoa Supply, Demand to Even Out; Pricing Pressures Diminishing
- Soybeans May Slump 14% After Momentum Stalls: Technical Analysis
- Corn Heads for Biggest Weekly Loss Since June on Slowing Demand
- Gold Seen Luring Wealthy as Central Bankers Expand Stimulus
CURRENCIES
EURO – EUR/USD bounces +0.5% on Spain bailout rumoring; that monster correlation risk FX pair is in a very important positions right now w/ TRADE support of $1.29 under attack at the same time as our long-term TAIL risk line of $1.31.54 remains a wall of resistance; a break and close below $1.29 gets me $1.26, fast – so watch that.
EUROPEAN MARKETS
SPAIN – what would the week have been if we actually went 5 full days with no central planning rumors? Spain gets the bailout begging back into the headlines, and that’s good for a European/US futures bounce; IBEX continues to make lower-highs vs March; its risk range is now 8031-8214; doing nothing in European Equities right now, waiting/watching.
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team