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    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

Takeaway: Coffee prices remain a tailwind for $SBUX, $PEET, $GMCR, $CBOU, $THI, and other coffee retailers.

Over the past week, cheese prices gained the most of the soft commodities that we track.  Coffee declined almost 6% after strong gains last week.  Currently, Arabica prices are down 35% versus last year and almost 30% YTD.  This year-over-year decline is a benefit to SBUX, PEET, GMCR, CBOU, THI and other coffee retailers.  Grain prices declined week-over-week as corn, wheat, and soybean saw declines of -3.5%, -2.4%, and -7.1%, respectively. 

General Overview

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - commod

Macro Callout

Elevated gasoline prices are slowing growth in the U.S.  Commodity inflation during the last few years of quantitative easing has been staggering.  Copper, oil, gold are up in the region of 80% in the last three-and-a-half years while beef is up 50% over the same period.  Gasoline prices are a major factor for the consumer at the moment and we fully expect Darden management to mention gas prices tomorrow on their earnings call.

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - gasoline

Correlation

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - correl

Charts

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - crb foodstuffs

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - corn

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - wheat

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - soybeans

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - rough rice

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - live cattle

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - chicken whole breast

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - chicken broilers

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - chicken wings

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - coffee

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - milk

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - cheese

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Rory Green

Analyst