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MCD DIVIDEND A FOCUS FOR INVESTORS

Takeaway: Look for $MCD's board to reassure investors of the strength of the company's cash flow by announcing a healthy dividend raise

Of all the firsts CEO Don Thompson has been facing in his new role, the September dividend announcement will be one of the more important messages he sends to the Street.

 

The dividend announcement is expected to come following the mid-September board meeting. 

 

Keep the following in mind as we near the announcement:

  • MCD generally tries to keep dividend growth in line with earnings growth
  • EPS growth was 10%, 14% and 15% in 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively
  • Dividend growth was 15% over the last year and 12% over the last three years
  • EPS growth in 2012 will likely be in the 2-3% range
  • The Street is expecting 10% EPS growth in 2013
  • The average of 2012 and 2013 earnings growth is likely to be roughly 6%

With all of this in mind, we would expect McDonald’s dividend growth to be in the 6-9% range with a potential upside surprise to 11%.  The strength of McDonald’s cash flows is important to investors and the coming dividend announcement will likely be interpreted as a signal of the board’s confidence in that metric over the next 12 months. 

 

Share repurchases are also a factor for investors and, while the overall pace of buy backs has slowed relative to the 2007/2008 time frame, we expect it to slow in 2013 also.  If McDonald’s were to send a strong signal and raise the dividend by 10%, that would imply roughly $3 billion in dividends for 2013.  On average, over the past four years, the company has returned $5.4 billion to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases.  If we assume a similar level of dividends and repurchases in 2013, along with a dividend increase of ~10%, share repurchases would amount to approximately $2.4 billion, which would be the smallest dollar-amount since 2005.

 

We expect a sequential sales improvement for McDonald’s over the next month or two.  The dividend announcement could also provide a boost to sentiment.  Following that announcement, we will remain on the sidelines awaiting indication that a recovery is under way.

 

MCD DIVIDEND A FOCUS FOR INVESTORS - mcd total div and share repo

 

MCD DIVIDEND A FOCUS FOR INVESTORS - mcd div eps growth

 

MCD DIVIDEND A FOCUS FOR INVESTORS - mcd share repurchase

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 

 

 


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 10, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -1.32% downside to 1419 and 0.01% upside to 1438. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2a

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/07 NYSE 1083
    • Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 1763
  • VOLUME: on 09/07 NYSE 679.94
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -7.62%
  • VIX:  as of 09/07 was at 14.38
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -7.82%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -38.55%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/07 closed at 1.82
    • Up  from the day prior at 1.38 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


Qe – I for one didn’t think policy makers and the markets begging for them to do more of what has not work would get this far, but they have, sort of; “99% certainty” baked into the Bloomberg headline and 60% on another Qe from Reuters; for now, that trumps an awful US employment and growth scenario. Time to jam Americans w/ $5 at the pump, baby.

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 30.63
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.11%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.68%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.67%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.43
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.42 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 11am: Fed to buy $1b-$1.5b notes due 1/15/2019-2/15/2042
  • 11:30am: U.S. sells $32b 3-mo, $28b 6-mo bills
  • 3pm: Consumer Credit, July, est. $10.0b (prior $6.459b)
  • 4pm: USDA crop-conditions report

GOVERNMENT:

    • Secretary of State Clinton says U.S. “not setting deadlines” for Iran nuclear deal
    • U.S. Congress returns to work following August recess
    • Obama administration ordered U.S. agencies to identify three initiatives to cut paperwork required to comply with federal regulations by this date
    • White House urging Senate to vote as soon as this week on expansion of govt. mortgage refinancing program
    • U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds briefing on economic, workplace concerns of American businesses in election year

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Global central bankers meet in Basel to address collapse of confidence in Libor, led by BoE’s King
  • Transocean agreed to sell 38 shallow water drilling rigs for $1.05b to Shelf Drilling International
  • JPMorgan considering cutting 2012 bonuses for senior managers including CEO Jamie Dimon: WSJ
  • Morgan Stanley, Citi face deadline to announce results of Perella Weinberg mediation over MSSB
  • Smith Barney may be valued at ~$15b: N.Y. Post
  • XStrata CEO Davis said ready to quit after Glencore takeover
  • SEC has scheduled no action on proposal to raise standards for U.S. brokers advising retail investors
  • Slowing China output augurs more stimulus before power shift
  • AIG to buy up to $5b of stock in $18b Treasury offering; likely to cut U.S. stake below 50% 1st time since 2008 bailout
  • A $6.4b accord for U.S. drug, medical-device reviews set to unravel 3 mos. after taking effect
  • BP is said to near $6b sale of Gulf assets to Plains
  • FedEx, UPS won licenses to start domestic courier business in China; aren’t allowed to operate in Beijing
  • Las Vegas Sands ordered to explain to Nevada judge today how, why files from Macau ops ended up in U.S. while co. claimed Macau law prevented it from transferring them overseas
  • Reinsurers including Swiss Re, Allianz said industry’s M&A appetite will be subdued this year because of financial crisis
  • Oil & Natural Gas agreed to pay Hess $1b for stake in Azerbaijan’s largest oil fields, associated pipeline
  • Kellogg, KKR among cos. considering bids for United Biscuits’ snacks unit
  • Navistar shareholder Carl Icahn sent letter to company board, saying new management chosen without consultation
  • Obama administration drafting executive order to create program protecting vital computer networks from cyber attacks
  • Former UBS trader Kweku Adoboli’s trial begins
  • Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit speaks at Barclays conference

 EARNINGS:

    • John Wiley & Sons (JW/A) 8am, $0.73
    • Casey’s General Stores (CASY) 4pm, $0.95
    • Five Below (FIVE) After-mkt, $0.01
    • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) After-mkt, ($0.00)

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

COPPER – big league squeeze finding her crescendo in Copper this morning at lower long-term highs; Chinese stocks down for 4mths and up for 1.5 days + a stimulus rumor will do that, I guess – but do not forget the Copper spike in late Feb early March post Bernanke pushing goal posts on 0% to 2014 – now the goal post is implying 2015 – free moneys forever.

  • Hedge Funds Lift Bets to 16-Month High Before Rally: Commodities
  • Gas Bears Back Shale Boom as Isaac Rally Ebbs: Energy Markets
  • Oil Trades Near One-Week High on Outlook for Economic Stimulus
  • Ship Magnate Uses Gut in $11 Billion Bet Worst Since ’70s Ending
  • Copper Reaches 4-Month High as Chinese Data Fuel Stimulus Bets
  • Gold Trades Close to Six-Month High as Stimulus Bets Increase
  • Wheat Advances as U.S. Export Sales Rise, Russian Supplies Drop
  • Sugar Climbs on Speculation Demand May Be Improving; Cocoa Falls
  • Iron Ore Swaps for October Pass $100/Ton First Time Since August
  • China to Hold Second Shale-Gas Auction Next Month, Ministry Says
  • China Rebar Volumes Advance to Record on Government Spending
  • Gold Fields Halts Output at Kloof-Driefontein in Second Strike
  • Xstrata CEO Davis to Step Down Six Months After Planned Takeover
  • Nordic Next-Quarter Power Rises Most in Two Weeks on Dry Weather
  • U.K. Natural Gas Snaps Three-Day Gain as Demand Nears Record Low
  • Palm Oil Snaps Four-Day Losing Streak as Malaysian Exports Jump

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – Japan’s Q2 GDP Growth of 0.7% y/y surprises on the downside (Nikkei -13.5% from March #GrowthSlowing highs as they haven’t actually done a US/ECB style Qe, yet) and Japan’s Fin. Services minister allegedly committed suicide overnight.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team


Is the Move in the Euro More Than A Short Squeeze?

Takeaway: The recent surge in the euro ($FXE) looks more like a short squeeze than a shift in the fundamental outlook for the currency.

Position: Short the euro via FXE.


As many of you know, our firm is set up like a buy side firm in order to match up better with many of our subscribers.  In essence, our analysts cover a broader swath of names and try to go to where the opportunities are rather than just publishing maintenance research.  As well, we encourage vigorous debate about ideas.

 

On the last point, this morning was no exception as we spent a good twenty minutes debating and discussing the euro.  A key consideration is whether the outlook for the euro has dramatically changed with the recent policy pronouncements from the European Central Bank.  To start, let’s consider the new policy.

 

At the press conference following the ECB monthly meeting President Mario Draghi told reporters:

             

 “We want this to be perceived as a fully effective backstop.”

 

Ultimately, what that means practically is important, but from a perception perspective the markets are clearly looking at this as the ECB committing to unlimited bond purchases from the periphery. The string attached to this commitment by the ECB is that governments sign on to a euro-zone plan for budgetary discipline. 

 

Budgetary discipline in the European Union is, of course, not a new concept.  In fact, the very origin of the European Union via the Maastricht Treaty outlined some key elements of budgetary discipline.  As it relates to government finance there were two key goals: 1) annual government deficit not to exceed 3% of GDP and 2) gross debt to GDP not to exceed 60% of GDP.  We know how that ended.

 

Perhaps budgetary discipline will be different this time in Europe, although we won’t know for sure without understanding the enforcement mechanism.  As a result, Europe may well be left with a situation where there is an unlimited commitment by the ECB to back stop the sovereign debt market, but the fiscal outlook never meaningfully improves.  In terms of outlook for the euro currency, this scenario seems likely to lead to fundamental weakness.  Ironically, in free markets the interest rate is the mechanism which penalizes countries with poor fiscal discipline.

 

The obvious question, then, is how we explain the current move upwards in the currency.  To put it simply, it looks like a short squeeze.  In the chart below we highlight the net futures positions in the euro going back to 2008.  The obvious takeaway is that the early summer of 2012 was the most heavily shorted position of the euro since the European sovereign debt debacle began.

 

Is the Move in the Euro More Than A Short Squeeze? - 1

 

 

Not surprisingly, as the chart below highlights, the euro bottomed roughly around the time that short interest reached its highest point, or shortly thereafter, and the euro has been climbing as the shorts have continued to cover.  The climb itself has been gradual, though the last few days highlight a fairly typical short squeeze as the shorts have scrambled to cover due to the latest policy pronouncement.

 

Is the Move in the Euro More Than A Short Squeeze? - 2

 

It is certainly possible that the future for the euro is now bright.  On some level that may be true, as the ECB actually seems committed to at least sustaining the currency.  The fundamental drivers of the currency, though, continue to paint a bearish outlook for the euro based on our analysis. For starters, money printing is bearish for any currency and the ECB has now indicated the printing press is open 24/7 for business.  We highlight the balance sheet of the ECB below, which is already in a precarious position and now only set to expand further.

 

Is the Move in the Euro More Than A Short Squeeze? - 3

 

The other consideration for the euro is the actual economic outlook for Europe.  We haven’t minced words on our view of global growth slowing and Europe has been the poster child for this as the chart below highlights.  The one benefit in coming quarters may be easy comparisons for economic activity in Europe, but the PMI readings from Europe remain consistently below 50 and actually imply continued contraction in Europe.  

 

Is the Move in the Euro More Than A Short Squeeze? - 4

 

So on one hand, the ECB’s commitment to completely backstop bond purchases is certainly a positive for those peripheral nations that are inclined to continue to issue debt with wanton abandon.  On the other hand, even if it does signal a willingness to keep the euro intact, we do not see printing money as a factor that leads to a strong currency.  Underscoring all of this is a European economy that continues to deteriorate. A fact that implies a return to ZIRP is likely to happen sooner rather than later.  Once again, negative for the currency.

 

The other side of the euro is our outlook for the U.S. dollar.  For purposes of this note, we won’t get into the prolonged analysis of the U.S. dollar, but a few things are positive for the dollar versus the euro.  First, the outlook for economic growth in the U.S. is more positive than in Europe, even though it is somewhat tepid here as well.  Second, one way or the other, government spending is set to decline in the U.S., likely via sequestration. Finally, there is a close to 50% probability that Romney becomes President and he has espoused a much more pro U.S. dollar policy (including replacing Bernanke).

 

As for now, we will stick with the view that short covering is the key driver of euro strength.  At least until the fundamental outlook changes, or until our quantitative model supports it.

 

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 

 

 

 


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

Here I Go Again: S&P 500 Levels Refreshed

POSITIONS: Short SPY

 

“Here I go again on my own, like a drifter I was born to walk alone…”

 

But I’ve made up my mind, and shorted SPY one more time. I’m shorting it for different reasons than I would have yesterday, but the growth/earnings bulls of March 2012 change their thesis every other week, so I won’t sweat that.

 

 

Here I Go Again: S&P 500 Levels Refreshed - SPX

 

 

Growth Slowing will continue if commodities continue higher. Burning The Buck is a market trade, not an economic solution.

 

Here are the lines in my model that matter to me most:

 

  1. Immediate-term TRADE overbought = 1437
  2. Intermediate-term TREND support = 1419

 

In other words, that’s your new risk range and overbought is as overbought does. If we snap 1419, that’s going to open up a whole new host of risks that I will not be exposed to. So we’ll wait, watch, and deal with that if we need to then.

 

What would have me become your huckleberry on the bull side of equities (bear side of bonds)? Easy answer: Growth Accelerating.

 

And it’s easier to see that not happening today than it was in March.

 

Keith McCullough

Chief Executive Officer


Weekly European Monitor: Buying Time

Takeaway: The ECB creates a new bond buying program (OMTs) but it is far from the elixir to cure Europe’s ills. Growth will remain under pressure.

-- For specific questions on anything Europe, please contact me at to set up a call.

 

Positions in Europe: Long German Bonds (BUNL); Short EUR/USD (FXE); Short Greece (GREK)

 

Asset Class Performance:

  • Equities:  The STOXX Europe 600 closed up +2.3% week-over-week vs -0.7% last week. Top performers: Cyprus +10.8%; Greece +7.2%; Italy +6.7%; Spain +6.2%; Portugal +5.6%; Austria +5.0%; Russia (RTSI) +4.6%. Bottom performers: Ukraine -3.3%; Slovakia -0.5% [Other: Germany +3.5%; France +3.1%; UK +1.5%].
  • FX:  The EUR/USD is up +1.72% week-over-week versus +0.56% last week.  W/W Divergences: PLN/EUR +1.75%; CZK/EUR +1.21%; RUB/EUR +0.37%; DKK/EUR 0.00%; HUF/EUR -0.25%; TRY/EUR -0.54%; SEK/EUR -1.49%.
  • Fixed Income:  The 10YR yield for sovereigns fell dramatically across the board for peripheral countries, while the core gained on the week.  Greece saw the largest decline, -181bps to 21.62%, followed by Portugal’s -116bps move to 8.25% and Spain fell -95bps to 5.75bps.  Germany was up +23bps to 1.62% and France gained +5bps to 2.24%.
  • Sovereign CDS:  Sovereign CDS followed yields with all main countries we track down on the week. On a week-over-week basis Spain fell the most, down -168bps to 343bps, followed by Italy -148bps to 315bps, Portugal -133bps to 536bps, Ireland -97bps to 343bps, and France -25bps to 115bps.  

 

Weekly European Monitor: Buying Time - aa. yields

 

Weekly European Monitor: Buying Time - aa. cds   a

 

Weekly European Monitor: Buying Time - aa. cds   b

 

 

Buying Time

 

This week was all about Draghi’s issuance of the newly invented Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs) program to buy unlimited bonds on the secondary market of Eurozone member states, targeting maturities of 1-3 years. He announced OMTs Thursday morning following the ECB’s decision to keep the main rates on hold, however, most of the details of OMT were leaked on Wednesday during the trading session, so the back half of the week saw significant gains across European capital markets, with positive divergence from the periphery.

 

Sizing up Draghi’s newest “Blank Check” is difficult – while the market continues to beg for more central bank and state-backed interventions and bailouts, fundamentals remain severely challenged and the feasibility of a Union of uneven states is still very much in question. Spain and Italy, which we’re previously written about, remain hot spots of sovereign and banking risk that we believe will take wind out of the short term optimism sails of this week’s OMTs announcement.

 

Of note is that Spain has a hefty level of debt maturing in October, namely €35.316B of principal and interest coming due, or 59% of the €59.212B in principal and interest due into the remainder of the year. As PM Mariano Rajoy struggles to issue austerity and cut the deficit (which we expect Spain to miss rather dramatically versus 8.9% of GDP last year) and the means by which its banking system is bailed out (ESM or EFSF and through the FBOR or not) remain unclear, a powder keg of risk is developing on already bombed out fundamentals: GDP in firmly negative territory (-1.3% in Q2 Y/Y); unemployment rate is near 25% (over 50% for youth); we expect rising debt levels; and there are potentially more downgrades from the main ratings agencies to come (for more see our note titled “Idea Alert: Shorting Spain” from 9/4).

 

Our two grave concerns in Europe broadly are the lack of growth and inability of Eurocrats to construct a functional fiscal union. On growth we’re worried that the periphery will have to continue to revise down its estimates [note that the ECB revised down its GDP estimate in Thursday’s meeting—versus staff projections in June—to -0.6% and -0.2% for 2012 (versus -0.5% and 0.3%) and -0.4% and 1.4% for 2013 (versus 0.0% and 2.0%)] and the core (namely Germany) will not be able to pick up the slack and/or will also underperform estimates.

 

Weekly European Monitor: Buying Time - aa. eurozone gdp

 

 

On a fiscal union, we continue to reiterate that Europe must have a fiscal union alongside its current monetary union to reign in and regulate budgets as well manage the imbalance that has resulted from highly uneven economies (or differentials by way export/import; infrastructure; population size; natural resources; and know how). However, getting to a fiscal union will take a huge step given the inability of member states to relinquish their sovereignty to Brussels (and/or Frankfurt). To be sure, getting to a fiscal union is complicated by the cultural differences (language in particular) that divide nations and prevent loose conditions to work in states outside of one’s home country. 

 

In short, while the OMTs will “benefit” yields, especially from the periphery and towards the shorter end of the curve, artificial support (sovereign buying) and flooding the system with liquidity is not going to solve Europe’s problems. And growth, for sure, will remain under pressure (see PMIs for August below under Data Dump).

 

The week ahead offers two big catalysts, namely the German Constitutional Court’s decision on the ESM (with a banking license) and the Fiscal Union. Interestingly, Reuters reported that all 20 public and constitutional law professors it surveyed predicted that the court will approve the ESM and fiscal compact. However, twelve professors noted that approval is likely to come with tough conditions limiting the government's flexibility on any new rescues. In addition, five said that the court is likely to signal that Eurozone integration has reached the limits permitted by the constitution, suggesting the potential for a public referendum.

 

A second catalyst to watch is the Dutch General Election. Currently two pro-European political parties lead polls: Prime Minister Mark Rutte's Liberal Party followed closely by the Labor Party, which is pro-euro but unlike the Liberal Party, opposes tough austerity measures. The two parties could form a center-right coalition with the support of just one other party, potentially the socially liberal D66 Party. Worth noting is the waning support for the Socialists who were previously polling high and who oppose deeper Eurozone integration, as well as the decline in the Freedom Party, which has pushed for an exit from the euro and a return to the guilder.  

 

 

Call Outs:

 

Spain - even after the ECB unveiled the details of its new intervention plan, Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy continued to push back against calls to make an official request for support. He also signaled his reluctance to accept new conditions that could be attached to additional external support, pointing out that he had no intention of touching Spanish pensions. One senior EU official said he saw a Spanish aid request around the time of the October 18-19 leaders' summit as a "best-case scenario".    

 

France - CAC 40 changes: Peugeot to be replaced by Solvay (changes to take effect on September 24)

 

Moody’s - cut its EU outlook to negative to reflect risks to Aaa of Germany, France, UK, and Netherlands. 

 

France - LVMH chairman being hauled in front of the French PM to defend their decision to move 200 top managers to New York due to the new 75% top tax rate on pay > €1 million. 

 

Germany - missed its target of €5B and only sold €3.61B of new 1.5% 10YR bonds, average yield 1.42% [Bid-cover ratio 1.1 vs previous 1.8]

 

Germany - A poll from Forsa for Stern magazine (a German publication) found 30% of respondents said that they had little trust in ECB President Draghi, while 12% noted that they had none at all. Roughly 18% said that they held him in esteem, while 31% said that they did not know him and 9% had no opinion at all. Recall that German Chancellor Merkel has blessed the ECB's intervention plan as a bridge to her preferred longer-term solution to address the debt crisis: deeper fiscal and political integration.

 

 

EUR/USD:

 

Our immediate term TRADE range for the cross is $1.24 to $1.26. The move above our resistance level is a reflection of optimism around the OMTs program. We expect the cross to come in after this initial optimism.  Please see my colleague Daryl Jones’ note today titled “Is the Move in the Euro More Than A Short Squeeze?” for more thoughts on the cross.

 

In the second chart below we look at CFTC data for net contracts of Euro non-commercial positions. Interestingly, since a high in short position in the Euro on 6/5/12 (-213.060 contracts), investors have been less bearish (and covering). Week over week, contracts are 17% less bearish, -125.817 to -103,977 as of 8/28. 

 

Weekly European Monitor: Buying Time - aa. eur usd

 

Weekly European Monitor: Buying Time - aa. CFTC

 

 

Data Dump:

 

Weekly European Monitor: Buying Time - aa. pmi neu

 

Eurozone Q2 GDP Preliminary -0.2% Q/Q (inline)   [-0.5% Y/Y vs previous est. -0.4%]

Eurozone PPI 1.8% JUL Y/Y (exp. 1.6%) vs 1.8% JUN   [0.4%  JUL M/M vs -0.5% JUN]

Eurozone Retail Sales -1.7% JUL Y/Y (exp. -1.7%) vs -0.9% JUN   [-0.2% M/M (exp. -0.2%) vs 0.1% JUN]

 

Germany Factory Orders -4.5% JUL Y/Y (exp. -4.5%) vs -7.6% JUN   [0.5% JUL M/M (exp. 0.3%) vs -1.6% JUN]

 

Weekly European Monitor: Buying Time - aa. german factory orders

 

Germany Exports 0.5% JUL M/M (exp. -0.5%) vs -1.4% JUN

Germany Imports 0.9% JUL M/M (exp. -0.3%) vs -2.9% JUN

Germany Labor Costs (Seasonally Adjusted) 1.5% in Q2 Q/Q vs 0.2% in Q1

Germany Labor Costs (Workday Adjusted) 2.5% in Q2 Y/Y vs 1.8% in Q1

Germany Industrial Production -1.4% JUL Y/Y (exp. -3.0%) vs 0.3% JUN

 

France ILO Unemployment Rate 10.2% in Q2 vs 10% in Q1

 

UK Halifax House Prices -0.9% AUG Y/Y vs -0.6% JUL

UK PMI Construction 49 AUG (exp. 50) vs 50.9 JUL

UK New Car Registrations 0.1% AUG Y/Y vs 9.3% JUL

UK Industrial Production -0.8% JUL Y/Y (exp. -2.7%) vs -3.8% JUN

UK PPI Input 2.0% AUG M/M (exp. 1.7%) vs 0.4% JUL   [1.4% AUG Y/Y (exp. 1.4%) vs -2.4%]

UK PPI Output 0.5% AUG M/M (exp. 0.2%) vs 0.1% JUL   [2.2% AUG Y/Y (exp. 1.9%) vs 1.8% JUL]

 

Italy New Car Registrations -20.23% AUG Y/Y vs -21.39% JUL

 

Spain Unemployment Change +38.2K AUG (= first increase in 5 months)  vs -27.8K JUL

Spain Industrial Output -5.4% JUL Y/Y vs -6.1% JUN

 

Switzerland Q2 GDP -0.1% Q/Q (exp. 0.2%) vs 0.5% in Q1   [0.5% Y/Y (exp. 1.6%) vs 1.2% in Q1]

Switzerland Retail Sales 3.2% JUL Y/Y vs 3.3% JUN

Switzerland CPI -0.5% AUG Y/Y vs -0.8% JUL

Switzerland Unemployment Rate 2.9% AUG vs 2.9% JUL

 

Netherlands CPI 2.3% AUG Y/Y vs 2.3% JUL

Netherlands Industrial Production 0.1% JUL (exp. -2.3%) vs -2.0% JUN

 

Finland Q2 GDP -0.1% Y/Y vs 2.2% in Q1   [-1.1% Q/Q vs 0.9% in Q1]

Norway Credit Indicator Growth 6.9% JUL Y/Y vs 7.1%

Norway Industrial Production 2.6% JUL Y/Y vs 7.7% JUN

Iceland Q2 GDP -6.5% Q/Q vs 0.3% in Q1   [0.5% Y/Y vs 4.2% in Q1]

 

Greece Unemployment Rate 24.4% JUN vs 23.1% MAY

Greece Q2 GDP Final -6.3% Y/Y

Malta Q2 GDP 3.0% Y/Y vs 1.0% in Q1

 

Portugal Industrial Sales -3.8% JUL Y/Y vs -2.3% JUN

Portugal Q2 GDP Final -1.2% Q/Q (inline)   [-3.3% Y/Y (inline)]

 

Ireland Industrial Production 4.8% JUL Y/Y vs 4.9% JUN

Ireland Unemployment Rate 14.7% AUG vs 14.7% JUL

 

Czech Republic Retail Sales 0.3% JUL vs -0.8% JUN

Czech Republic Q2 GDP Final -0.2% Q/Q (inline)   [-1.0% Y/Y (initial -1.2%)]

Hungary Q2 GDP Final -0.2% Q/Q (inline)   [-1.3% Y/Y (initial -1.2%)]

Hungary Industrial Production -2.2% JUL Y/Y vs 0.6% JUN

 

Romania Retail Sales 4.4% JUL Y/Y vs 4.0% JUN

Romania Producer Prices 5.7% JUL Y/Y vs 5.8% JUN

Romania Q2 GDP Preliminary 0.5% Q/Q (inline)   [1.2% Y/Y (inline)]

 

Estonia CPI 3.8% AUG Y/Y vs 3.6% JUL

Estonia Q2 GDP Final 0.5% Q/Q (initial 0.4%)   [2.2% Y/Y (initial 2.0%)]

Latvia Q2 GDP Final 1.3% Q/Q (initial 1.0%)   [5.0% Y/Y (initial 5.1%)]

 

Russia Consumer Prices 5.9% AUG Y/Y vs 5.6% JUL

Russia Q2 GDP Preliminary 4.0% Y/Y vs 4.9% in Q1

 

Turkey CPI 8.88% AUG Y/Y vs 9.07% JUL

Turkey PPI 4.56% AUG Y/Y vs 6.13% JUL

 

 

Interest Rate Decisions:

 

(9/5) Poland Base Interest Rate UNCH at 4.75%

(9/6) BOE Interest Rate UNCH at 0.50% 

(9/6) BOE Asset Purchase Target UNCH at 375B GBP

(9/6) ECB Interest Rate UNCH at 0.75%

(9/6) Riksbank Interest Rate CUT 25bps to 1.25% [consensus was for no change]

(9/6) Serbia Interest Rate UNCH at 10.50%

 

 

The European Week Ahead

 

Monday: Sep. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence; 4Q Germany Manpower Employment Outlook; Aug. Germany Wholesale Price Index (Sep 10-12); Aug. UK RICS House Price Balance; Aug. France BoF Business Sentiment; Jul. France Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production; 2Q Italy GDP – Final; Aug. Greece CPI,  Industrial Production

 

Tuesday: Jul. UK. Trade Balance; 2Q France Non-Farm Payrolls – Final; Jul. Spain House Transactions

 

Wednesday: Jul. Eurozone Industrial Production; Germany’s Constitutional Court will rule on the ESM & Fiscal Pact; Aug. Germany CPI – Final; Aug. UK Claimant Count, Jobless Claims Change; Jul. UK Average Weekly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, Employment Change; Aug. France CPI; Jul. France Current Account; Aug. Spain CPI – Final; Jul. Italy Industrial Production; Dutch General Election

 

Thursday: 2Q Eurozone Labour Costs; Aug. Italy CPI - Final; Jul. Italy General Government Debt; 2Q Greece Unemployment Rate

 

Friday: Aug. Eurozone CPI; 2Q Eurozone Employment; 2Q Spain Labour Costs, House Prices ToT Homes; Jul. Italy Current Account

 

 

Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst

 


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