THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – September 7, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 16 points or -0.92% downside to 1419 and 0.20% upside to 1435. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3a

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 09/06 NYSE 1763
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -148
  • VOLUME: on 09/06 NYSE 736
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 8.93%
  • VIX:  as of 09/06 was at 15.60
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -12.06%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -33.33%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 09/06 closed at 1.38
    • Down  from the day prior at 2.15 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 30.69
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.73%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.68%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.46
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.42

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Aug., est. 130k (prior 163k)
  • 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, Aug., est. 8.3% (prior 8.3%)
  • 8:30am: Average Hourly Earnings M/m, All Employees, Aug., est. 0.2% (prior 0.1%)
  • 11am: Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes due 2/15/2013-2/28/2014
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

GOVERNMENT:

    • Washington Day Ahead
    • House, Senate not in session
    • Comments due on proposed revisions to current capital rules being considered by Fed, FDIC, 5pm
    • Medicare Payment Advisory Commission meets on outpatient therapy, hospital readmissions, 8:30am
    • Solyndra LLC, the solar-panel maker that received a $535m government loan guarantee, may win court approval of statement describing bankruptcy exit plan
    • EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson, Canadian Environment Minister Peter Kent hold signing ceremony for updated Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement
    • Obama Seeks Second Term on Harder Path Leading to Better Place

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Less Hiring Probably Kept U.S. Jobless Rate Elevated in August
  • HTC Wins Dismissal of Patent Lawsuit Due to False Statements
  • HTC Patents Challenged by Apple Probably Valid, U.S. Judge Says
  • Amazon Challenges Apple With Updated Kindles in Crowded Market
  • Apple in talks for service similar to Pandora: WSJ
  • Samsung Chips Said to Be Kept From New IPhone on Pricing
  • FCC Said to Propose Market-Maker Role in U.S. Airwaves Auction
  • Glencore Raises Xstrata Offer Ratio to 3.05x; Not a Firm Offer
  • U.K. Industrial Output Jumps Most in 25 Years After Jubilee
  • Monti Says ECB Plan Reduces Stigma as Rajoy Stalls on Aid
  • Volkswagen Lowers Sales Target on European Debt Crisis Woes
  • AIG Sells $2 Billion AIA Stake as it Seeks Funds for Buybacks
  • Lufthansa Drops 1,000 Flights Amid Biggest Cabin Crew Strike
  • China Backs Roads-to-Subways Construction Sparking Stock Rally

     EARNINGS:

    • Lululemon (LLL CN) 7:15am, $0.31
    • Comverse Technology (CMVT) 7:30am, $0.08
    • Brady (BRC) 8am, $0.52
    • Kroger (KRO) 8:15am, $0.49 - Preview

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

COPPER – looks like everything else that’s gone straight down since the Feb-March highs on fundamental (demand slowing, supply building, etc.), squeezed right back up to a lower-high, hitting immediate-term TRADE resistance of $3.58/lb.

  • Copper Trade Most Bullish Since October on Stimulus: Commodities
  • Glencore Raises Xstrata Offer as Glasenberg Proposed as CEO
  • Shale Boom Cuts Gulf Oil Premium to 24-Year Low: Energy Markets
  • Crude Trades Near One-Week High as Slower Hiring Curbs Optimism
  • Asia Fuel-Oil Crack Widens; Gasoil Swaps Rebound: Oil Products
  • Hurricane Leslie to Resume Move Toward Bermuda After Stalling
  • Deutsche Bank Faces Fine for U.S. Power Market Manipulation
  • Soybeans Poised for First Weekly Loss Since July; Corn Declines
  • Robusta Coffee Rises as Inventories Drop Further; Sugar Gains
  • China’s Tin Demand to Decline as Europe, U.S. Economies Cool
  • Oil May Fall as U.S. Output Rebounds From Isaac, Survey Shows
  • Palm-Oil Shipments From Indonesia May Climb for Third Month
  • Sugar Output in India’s Biggest Grower Set to Rise 11% on Rain
  • Copper Traders Most Bullish Since October
  • Copper Heads for Biggest Weekly Gain in 10 on Chinese Projects
  • Record Corn Imports by China to Drive Rally, Rabobank Says
  • Gold Drops as Rally to Six-Month High Spurs Sales; Silver Falls

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4A

 

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5A

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


GERMANY – get this, the DAX is now trading higher than where it was before global #GrowthSlowing started in March; if you nailed that, congratulations, because I certainly didn’t – just thankful we’re not short it here, because we should have been on fundamentals; policies to inflate will only slow Eurozone growth (and global growth) further. Spain, Italy, etc still making lower highs vs March.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – more like 4mths down, 1 day up for Chinese stocks, but hoowah! What a move if you are a professional v-bottomer with a little looksy into headline rumoring; Shanghai +3.7% on rumors instead of reality; now what?

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team


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