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 TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 31, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 12 points or -0.18% downside to 1397 and 0.68% upside to 1409. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

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EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/30 NYSE -1294
    • Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 526
  • VOLUME: on 08/30 NYSE 511.72
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 0.48%
  • VIX:  as of 08/30 was at 17.83
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 4.51%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -23.80%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/30 closed at 1.42
    • Down from the day prior at 1.69 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 32.94
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.65%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.62%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.39
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.37

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 9:45am: Chicago Purch. Mgrs, Aug., est. 53.5 (prior 53.7)
  • 9:55am: UMich Sentiment, Aug. final, est. 73.6 (prior 73.6)
  • 10am: Factory Orders, July, est. 2.0% (prior -0.5%)
  • 10am: Fed’s Bernanke speaks at Jackson Hole conference
  • 11:55am: BOE’s Haldane on finl stability at Jackson Hole
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
  • 1:15pm: BOE’s Posen on monetary policy at Jackson Hole
  • TBA: NAPM-Milwaukee, Aug. (prior 46.7)

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate not in session
    • CFTC holds closed meeting on enforcement matters, 10am
    • Transportation Dept., Mazda Motorsports, Ad Council hold news conference on public campaign against distracted driving among teenagers, coinciding with 2012 Grand Prix of Baltimore, 11am
    • Romney, Ryan attend campaign events in Fla., Va.; Obama attends campaign event in Texas, Biden an event in Ohio

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Fed’s Bernanke to speak at Jackson Hole conference
  • Nomura plans $1b cost savings, job cuts outside Japan
  • Apple loses Japan patent claim against Samsung over devices
  • Japan industrial output unexpectedly falls on global weakness
  • Japan consumer prices fall, jobless rate stays at 4.3%
  • SAIC to split into two companies through spinoff
  • SAIC calls active Mon., yday before split announced
  • Euro-area unemployment rises to record 11.3%
  • Spain said to consider Bankia re-capitalization without EU money
  • Farm exports seen rising as drought pushes up U.S. crop prices
  • U.K. house prices rise most in more than 2 1/2 yrs
  • Indian growth expands at the slowest pace in 3 yrs
  • Employee operations manager Workday files for $400m IPO
  • U.S. Jobs, Obama, Draghi, JAL, Glencore: Week Ahead

EARNINGS:

    • Laurentian Bank of Canada (LB CN) pre-mkt, C$1.24

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

OIL – the only way to get some level of marginal consumption growth back in the global economy is to knock this oil price down, hard (like Q411). The only way to do that is to get the USD Index back up to $84-85, fast. Obama is 1 phone call away from telling The Bernank to raise rates and crash the Gold/Oil market – he’ll never do that; the polls are addicted to this stock market up on no-volume/no-trust thing.

  • Crop Traders Extend Bull Run as Rain Comes Too Late: Commodities
  • Oil Heads for Second Monthly Gain Before Fed Chairman’s Speech
  • Gold Set to Extend Best Month in Seven Before Bernanke Speech
  • Coffee Harvest in Vietnam Set to Drop From Record on Weather
  • Wheat Slides as Russia Says It Won’t Curb Exports; Soybeans Drop
  • Copper Seen Rising as Bernanke May Hint at Stimulus in Speech
  • Cocoa May Rise on Dry Weather and Disruptions; Sugar Advances
  • Commodities Holdings Advance Most Since March as Soy, Oil Rally
  • Russia Reduces Grain Crop Estimate as Exports Will Continue
  • Isaac Drenches Louisiana as Storm Moves North From Gulf Coast
  • Russian Oil Beats Iran as China Credit Pays Off: Energy Markets
  • Oil May Fall on Speculation Gulf Output to Resume, Survey Shows
  • Cocoa Butter Rally Said to Stall as Rising Prices Curb Demand
  • Paris Wheat Set to Gain on Resistance Breach: Technical Analysis
  • Demand From China Set to Shrink Soybean Supply, Boosting Prices
  • Farm Exports Seen Rising as Drought Pushes Up Crop Prices

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


EUROPE – lower-highs on lower volumes for Equities as every single European index we model is now back to bearish on my immediate-term TRADE duration; economic gravity (the data) supports that this morning; Italy ripped a +3.5% inflation rpt for AUG (vs +2.2% JUL); that’s what you get with $114 Brent Oil #stagflation.

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ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – in other news, one of the top3 economies in the world continues to show you the end results of doing more of that (Qe); Japanese stocks have been making lower-highs for 20 yrs since Krugman told them to “PRINT LOTS OF MONEY”; Nikkei pancaked into mth-end, down -1.6% (down -3.7% since Aug23, and down -13.8% since the March global #GrowthSLowing top).

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team