• HEDGEYE’S MARKET BRIEF
    Our FREE Investing Newsletter
    Get Exclusive Summer Sale Discounts

    By joining our email marketing list you agree to receive marketing emails from Hedgeye. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link in one of the emails. All Hedgeye products and services are subject to Hedgeye’s Terms of Service available at www.hedgeye.com/terms_of_service

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 29, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.52% downside to 1402 and 0.69% upside to 1419. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/28 NYSE 386
    • Increase versus the prior day’s trading of -149
  • VOLUME: on 08/28 NYSE 516.47
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 2.41%
  • VIX:  as of 08/28 was at 16.49
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 0.86%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -29.53%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/28 closed at 1.49
    • Down from the day prior at 1.80

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


BONDS – hoowah! what a move in the US Treasury market – the 10yr yield looks like the Chinese synchro diving team here, dropping straight back down to 1.62%, snapping TRADE support of 1.65% like a knife through water – today’s US GDP report will remind the March 2012 “growth is back” bulls that stocks may have rallied for 6wks, but not for the growth reasons they called for back then.

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 32.65
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.64%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.63%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.37
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Aug. 24 (prior -7.4%)
  • 8:30am: GDP Q/q (Annualized), 2Q, est. 1.7% (prior 1.5%)
  • 8:30am: Personal Consumption, 2Q, est. 1.5% (prior 1.5%)
  • 8:30am: GDP Price Index, 2Q, est. 1.6% (prior 1.60%)
  • 8:30am: Core PCE Q/q, 2Q, est. 1.8% (prior 1.8%)
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales M/m, July, est. 1% (prior -1.4%)
  • 10:30am: DoE Inventories
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5b notes 8/31/2018-8/15/2020
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $35b 5-yr notes
  • 2pm: Fed’s Beige Book

GOVERNMENT:

    • Republican National Convention, Day 3: Speakers include Paul Ryan; John McCain; Mitch McConnell; Jeb Bush; Tim Pawlenty; Condoleezza Rice
    • House, Senate not in session
    • SEC meets to consider eliminating prohibition against general solicitation, advertising in securities offerings, 10am
    • CMS holds semi-annual meeting of advisory panel on outpatient payments for hospitals, 9am
    • International Society of Air Safety Investigators holds annual seminar, with NTSB Vice Chairman Christopher Hart, 8am

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Daikin buys Goodman Global for $3.7b to expand in Nth. America
  • Hurricane Isaac beginning to move into Louisiana, NHC says
  • G-7 countries call for increased oil output to meet demand
  • KKR said to be in talks to buy Renesas for $1.2b: Nikkei
  • Italy borrowing costs fall at 6m bill auction
  • Republican convention continues in Tampa; Paul Ryan speaks
  • Morgan Stanley, Citigroup delay valuation of brokerage JV
  • Wellpoint searches for new CEO as Angela Braly resigns
  • Apple’s request for Samsung ban to be heard Dec. 6
  • Swedish FSA says banks can lend more amid tougher rules

EARNINGS:

    • Joy Global (JOY) 6am, $1.89 - Preview
    • Fresh Market (TFM) 6am, $0.27
    • Jos A Bank (JOSB) 6am, $0.73
    • HJ Heinz (HNZ) 7am, $0.81
    • JA Solar (JASO) 7am, ($0.96)
    • Zale (ZLC) 7:30am, ($0.83)
    • Genesco (GCO) 7:31am, $0.26
    • Brown-Forman (BF/B) 8am, $0.63
    • Tivo (TIVO) 4pm, ($0.24)
    • Oxford Industries (OXM) 4pm, $0.63
    • Pandora Media (P) 4:02pm, ($0.03)
    • Vera Bradley (VRA) 4:02pm, $0.35
    • Greif (GEF) 4:07pm, $0.71
    • Canadian Western Bank (CWB CN) 6:48pm, $C$0.57

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • No Return to Dirty ’30s as Farmer Sees Drought Relieved by U.S.
  • Oil Falls From One-Week High on Isaac, G-7 as Gasoline Declines
  • Timah Restarts Tin Spot Sales After Advances, Sukrisno Says
  • Big Coal Faces Steel Slowdown Amid Shale-Gas Pain: Commodities
  • Southeast Asian Buyers Seek Cheaper Soybean Meal, Corn Supplies
  • Soybeans Rise for Second Day on Signs of Increasing World Demand
  • Monsoon Revival Brightens Prospects for India Rice, Cane Crops
  • Gold Seen Falling in London Before Bernanke Speech This Week
  • Aluminum Premiums in Japan Set for Record High as Supply Limited
  • Cocoa Rises as West Africa May Have Little to Sell; Sugar Gains
  • Gold ETP Assets Jump to Record to Overtake Italy’s Reserves
  • Lingerie Delayed as $517 Billion India Jam Idles Trucks: Freight
  • Platinum ‘Correction’ a Buying Opportunity: Technical Analysis
  • Gold Calls at 2008 High on Jackson Hole Bet
  • Tin Declines as Restart of Producer Sales Eases Supply Concern
  • Palm Oil Drops on Speculation Stockpiles to Increase in Malaysia
  • Gold Calls at 2008 High on Easing Bets for Jackson Hole: Options

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


EUROPE – lower-highs on lower volumes across the board in all of the major Eurocrat markets; finally, the apex of the short squeeze looks to be over as my most immediate-term TRADE lines of price momentum are all snapping (for the IBEX that line = 7416).

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – it’s not just U.S. consumers who couldn’t care less about 6 wk U.S. stock market rallies to lower highs; Chinese and Indian consumers do not like food/energy prices up here and neither do their stock markets; Shanghai Comp -1%, back to YTD lows.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team