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MAJOR CATALYSTS

CLIENT TALKING POINTS

MAJOR CATALYSTS

We’ve got a plethora of issues to begin taking care of in this country. Dealing with everything from the fiscal cliff to the debt ceiling to the mess in Europe to slowdown in China, it’s like no matter where you go, you’re going to run into trouble. News flow regarding most of the aforementioned catalysts has been slow. Quiet isn’t necessarily a good thing, but on a Friday, I be some people are glad that the Eurocrats are on vacation and such.

THE MACAU INDUSTRY

Gaming in Macau has been on the decline for some months now, with a recent pickup in the numbers thanks to a multitude of factors. The latest numbers just came out of Macau, and average earnings per employee are up. At the end of the first half of 2012, the gaming sector had 52,800 workers, up by 11.6%.  The figure doesn’t include junket promoters and junket associates.  Overall, there were over 1,800 job vacancies in the gaming industry.          

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ASSET ALLOCATION

Cash:                  UP

U.S. Equities:   Flat

Int'l Equities:   Flat   

Commodities: Flat

Fixed Income:  DOWN

Int'l Currencies: UP   

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TOP LONG IDEAS

NIKE INC (NKE)

Nike’s challenges are well-telegraphed. But the reality is that its top line is extremely strong, and the Olympics has just given Nike all the ammo it needs to marry product with marketing and grow in the 10% range for the next 2 years. With margin pressures easing, and Cole Haan and Umbro soon to be divested, the model is getting more focused and profitable.

  • TRADE:  LONG
  • TREND:  LONG
  • TAIL:      LONG            

FIFTH & PACIFIC COMPANIES (FNP)

The former Liz Claiborne (LIZ) is on the path to prosperity. There’s a fantastic growth story with FNP. The Kate Spade brand is growing at an almost unprecedented clip. Save for Juicy Couture, the company has brands performing strongly throughout its entire portfolio. We’re bullish on FNP for all three durations: TRADE, TREND and TAIL.

  • TRADE:  LONG
  • TREND:  LONG
  • TAIL:      LONG

LAS VEGAS SANDS (LVS)

LVS finally reached and has maintained its 20% Macau gaming share, thanks to Sands Cotai Central (SCC). With SCC continuing to ramp up, we expect that level to hold and maybe, even improve. Macau sentiment has reached a yearly low but we see improvement ahead.

  • TRADE:  LONG
  • TREND:  NEUTRAL
  • TAIL:      NEUTRAL

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THREE FOR THE ROAD

TWEET OF THE DAY

“"My mom used to tell us, Carl, put on your shoes. Oscar [Pistorius], put on your legs, so I grew up thinking I had different shoes." Fav #Olympic quote.-@LewisPugh

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Thought is only a flash between two long nights, but this flash is everything.”–Henri Poincare

STAT OF THE DAY

0.5%. The amount the UK economy shrank between April and June.