THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 21, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 11 points or -0.71% downside to 1408 and 0.06% upside to 1419. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/20 NYSE -343
    • Decrease versus the prior day’s trading of 706
  • VOLUME: on 08/20 NYSE 550.72
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -18.49%
  • VIX:  as of 08/20 was at 14.02
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 4.24%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -40.09%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/20 closed at 2.44
    • Up from the day prior at 1.77 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 34
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.82%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.81%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.54
    • Up from prior day’s trading of 1.52 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 6am: EFSF to sell up to EU1.5b 182-day bills
  • 7:55am/8:45am: ICSC/Redbook retail sales
  • 8:45am: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Atlanta
  • 11am: Fed to sell $7b-8b notes 9/15/2014-4/30/2015
  • 11:30am: U.S. Treasury to sell $40b 4-wk., $25b 52-wk. bills

GOVERNMENT

    • House, Senate not in session
    • Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation hosts discussion on NERA report on impact of regulations on U.S. manufacturers, 10am
    • API holds conference call briefing to discuss SEC regulations on companies that make payments to foreign governments under Section 1504 of Dodd-Frank financial regulations bill, 10:30am
    • Acting Commerce Secretary Rebecca Blank meets local business leaders in Philadelphia, Allentown Pa. on job creation
    • NRC holds conference call to discuss apparent violations of regulations regarding radiation safety, security of portable nuclear gauges at facility in Juneau, Alaska, 3pm
    • AICPA 2012 National Governmental Accounting & Auditing Update Conference
    • ITC meets on seamless carbon, alloy steel standard, line and pressure pipe imports from Germany, 9:30am
    • ITC hears patent-infringement case X2Y Attenuators filed against Intel over processor chips in Apple, HP computers, 9am 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Citigroup became first Western bank to issue credit cards in China without co-branding from local financial institution
  • Lawyers for Apple, Samsung to make final arguments to jury today following three-week trial over patents
  • Spanish borrowing costs fall at 12-month bill auction
  • Conoco, Origin Energy said to be working with JPMorgan to help sell stake in their $20b natgas project in Australia
  • J&J said to agree to pay ~$600k to resolve 3 cases in first settlements of litigation over hip implants
  • Apple set U.S. record for mkt value yesterday
  • Facebook director Peter Thiel sold most of his stake yday
  • Edison to cut staff at shuttered San Onofre nuclear plant
  • Samsung to invest ~$4b in Texas factory to boost output of processors used in smartphones, tablet computers
  • President Obama raised almost $9m more in July than Mitt Romney; combined balances as of July 31 for Republican election bid $169m vs $107m for Democrats
  • Elpida Memory to get $3.5b in support from Micron
  • Consolidated Media Holdings expects to receive details from News Corp. on its takeover proposal within six weeks
  • Samick studying possible tender offer for Steinway
  • U.S. Trustee overseeing Kodak’s bankruptcy asked to probe patent auction by New York hedge fund
  • Apple sued by ex-worker who says Steve Jobs guaranteed his job
  • Wall Street struggling to find champion to replace Dimon
  • U.S. consumers rated automakers this year at same level as record-high satisfaction score in 2009: American Customer Satisfaction Index 

EARNINGS:

    • Tech Data (TECD) 6am, $1.19
    • Williams-Sonoma (WSM) 6am, $0.41
    • DSW (DSW) 7am, $0.62
    • Globe Specialty Metals (GSM) 7am, $0.15
    • Medtronic (MDT) 7:15am, $0.85; Preview
    • Best Buy (BBY) 8am, $0.31; Preview
    • Barnes & Noble (BKS) 8:30am
    • Raven Industries (RAVN) 9:10am, $0.38
    • Intuit (INTU) 4pm, $0.06
    • Analog Devices (ADI) 4:01pm, $0.56
    • Aspen Technology (AZPN) 4:01pm, $(0.04)
    • Dell (DELL) 4:01pm, $0.45 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

  • Bear Market in Tin Shuts 70% of Indonesian Capacity: Commodities
  • Oil Supply Rises First Time in Month in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Soybeans Top $17 for First Time as Demand Jumps for U.S. Exports
  • Commodities Headed for Bull Market as U.S. Drought Withers Crops
  • Oil Advances to Three-Month High Before European Debt Meetings
  • Copper Gains as European Meetings May Aid Debt-Crisis Progress
  • Gold Advances to Three-Week High as Weaker Dollar Spurs Demand
  • Glencore CEO to Abandon Xstrata Bid Should Qatar Stymie Deal
  • China Buys Most Corn in Six Months as Imports Set for Record
  • Cocoa Seen Gaining as Dry Weather Curbs Output; Sugar Declines
  • Asia-Pacific Oil Drillers in U.S. Gulf Seen With BP Sale: Energy
  • Natural Gas Advances in New York as Tropical Storm May Develop
  • South Dakota Corn, Soybean Yields 47 Percent Lower Than 2011
  • Copper May Extend Decline While Below $7,622: Technical Analysis
  • Soybeans Advance to Record as Demand Rises
  • Ohio Corn Yield Falls 29%, Soy Counts Decline, Tour Shows
  • Norden Profits as Smallest Ships Beat Bigger Carriers: Freight 

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CURRENCIES

 

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EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

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ASIAN MARKETS

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team