In an effort to evaluate performance and as a follow up to our YouTube, we compare how the quarter measured up to previous management commentary and guidance




  • WORSE:  While overall EBITDA was in-line with reduced expectations, business trends have certainly worsened since the Q1 conference call.  Q3 RevPAR looks like it will go negative.  However, the precipitous drop in the stock price had already incorporated the softness.  Management's comments about the environment improving post quarter end was surprising.  We'll see how it plays out.





  • LITTLE WORSE:  There was a patch of softness from May-June that led to drop off in in the year for the year convention bookings.  MGM's convention mix for 2012 is trending at about the 14-15% mix level (2011 mix was 14.7%) which is below where they wanted to be.  2013/2014 bookings have not been impacted, however.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "We expect convention mix to increase YoY during 2Q [at least +1%], and most notably our convention pace is up significantly in 2013 and 2014.  We expect convention mix to be flat to slightly up year-on-year this year."


  • SAME:  LV REVPAR rose 5% YoY. 
  • PREVIOUSLY:  “Based on our current booking trends, we expect a mid single digit RevPAR growth in the second quarter."


  • WORSE:  3Q REVPAR will be down slightly with weakness in bookings in May/June.  It's too early to make a call on how 4Q will shake out 
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "We continue to believe that RevPAR growth for the year will be at least mid-single digit with potential upside coming from the in the year, for the year convention bookings and retail segment strength.  It's a combination of both, slightly more occupancy."


  • SAME: ~3,300 rooms have been completed to date, with the balance expected to be completed by September
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "Our MGM Grand room remodel program continues to progress nicely with roughly 2,300 rooms completed and that project is on budget and on time to be completed by September of this year."


  • BETTER:  Aria occupancy reached an all-time high of 92.7%; quarterly REVPAR also reached a record of $187.  Much of the hotel growth is occurring in the more profitable cash segment.  Convention business at Aria for 2013 remains robust.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "Looking out for the next two quarters, room bookings [at Aria] are significantly outpacing last year. We expect occupancy in the second quarter to be the highest ever for ARIA driven by continued growth in convention business as our world-class convention space continues to gain traction in the marketplace. Convention business is also robust for 2013."


  • SAME: CityCenter 2Q margins came in at 25.2%
  • PREVIOUSLY:  [CityCenter margin] "You can expect the margin to be about 25%."



Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more