• HEDGEYE’S MARKET BRIEF
    Our FREE Investing Newsletter
    Get Exclusive Summer Sale Discounts

    By joining our email marketing list you agree to receive marketing emails from Hedgeye. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link in one of the emails. All Hedgeye products and services are subject to Hedgeye’s Terms of Service available at www.hedgeye.com/terms_of_service

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 3, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 20 points or -0.66% downside to 1356 and 0.81% upside to 1376. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/02 NYSE -722
    • Up  versus the prior day’s trading of -779
  • VOLUME: on 08/02 NYSE 825.56
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -19.47%
  • VIX:  as of 08/02 was at 17.57
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -7.33%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -24.91%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/02 closed at 0.97
    • Down from the day prior at 1.26 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK: 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 35
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.51%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading of 1.48%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.28
    • Up from prior day’s trading at 1.26 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, July, est. 100k (prior 80k)
  • 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, July, est. 8.2% (prior 8.2%)
  • 8:30am: Avg Hourly Earnings M/m, July, est. 0.2% (prior 0.3%)
  • 8:30am: Avg Weekly Hours All Employees, July, est. 34.5 (prior 34.5)
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing, July, est. 52.0 (prior 52.1)
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:

    • House is out for Aug. recess. Senate may be in session
    • NASA announces winners for the next round of funding to develop spacecraft capable of carrying astronauts, 9am
    • FCC holds an open meeting on cable television technical and operational requirements and the use of microwave for wireless broadcasts, 10:30am

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • July gain in payrolls probably failed to reduce U.S. unemployment
  • Knight said to open books to suitors as loss pressure grows
  • Knight losses ignite call for stronger SEC trading oversight
  • Citigroup is said to join firms refraining from Knight trading
  • Some ETF spreads widen as Knight is fighting to survive
  • Joyce faces Knight extinction after computers wipe out profit
  • NYSE 2Q earnings drop 20%, beating est.
  • Fidelity said to plan jump into ETF business with active funds
  • CF Industries to buy Viterra’s interests in CFL for C$915m
  • BofA says Libor probe prompts subpoenas over rate submissions
  • ECB-politicians’ crisis bargain emerges after 2 1/2 yrs
  • Toyota 1Q profit beats est., increases sales forecast
  • SAP will pay at least $306m to Oracle in a copyright- infringement lawsuit
  • American Express may be forced to pay refunds amid CFPB review
  • Morgan Stanley should cut fixed-income unit by half, ISI Says
  • BHP to take $3.3b in charges on shale, nickel assets
  • Nomura ordered to improve business by FSA on insider leaks

EARNINGS:

    • Alliant Energy (LNT) 6am, $0.47
    • Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN) 6am, $0.16
    • Pason Systems (PSI CN) 6am, C$0.18
    • Immunogen (IMGN) 6:30am, $(0.30)
    • Sirona Dental Systems (SIRO) 6:30am, $0.77
    • WellCare Health Plans (WCG) 6:30am, $1.21
    • Buckeye Partners (BPL) 7am, $0.64
    • Brookfield Office Properties (BPO CN) 7am, $0.26
    • Gartner (IT) 7am, $0.41
    • ITT (ITT) 7am, $0.37
    • Procter & Gamble (PG) 7am, $0.77
    • Viacom (VIAB) 7am, $1.00
    • Exelis (XLS) 7am, $0.48
    • Health Net (HNT) 8am, $0.67
    • RBC Bearings (ROLL) 8am, $0.61
    • TELUS (T CN) 8am, C$1.00
    • Telephone & Data Systems (TDS) 8:02am, $0.45
    • United States Cellular (USM) 8:03am, $0.72
    • PNM Resources (PNM) 8:30am, $0.30
    • SNC-Lavalin Group (SNC CN) 9:10am, C$0.61
    • Morguard Real Estate Investment Trust (MRT-U CN) 4pm, C$0.34
    • UIL Holdings (UIL) 4:10pm, $0.33
    • WGL Holdings (WGL) 5pm, $0.01
    • Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) 5:15pm, $1,777 (possible)

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Bull Market in Crops Extends With Spreading Drought: Commodities
  • Israel Finds $240 Billion Gas Hoard Stranded by Politics: Energy
  • Natural Gas Matches Coal as Top U.S. Power Fuel: BGOV Barometer
  • Oil Rises From Three-Week Low on Forecasts U.S. Hiring Increased
  • Corn Swings Between Gains, Declines on Drought, Ethanol Usage
  • Sugar Seen Falling as Brazil Harvest May Accelerate; Cocoa Gains
  • Gold Cuts Weekly Drop in London as Price Slump Spurs Purchases
  • Copper Seen Rising as Employment Report May Show Stronger Hiring
  • Gold Imports by China From Hong Kong Decline for Second Month
  • India’s Power Crisis May Signal Copper Demand: Chart of the Day
  • Coal Rally Seen as China’s Cuts Dwarf Australia: Energy Markets
  • China to Pay Higher Prices for Soybeans on Drought, USDA Says
  • Natural Gas Extends Biggest Decline in Three Years on Stockpiles
  • Japan Shifts to Brazilian Corn From U.S. as Prices Reach Record
  • Brazil Coffee Growers Harvest 70% of Crop as Dry Weather Helps
  • Drought Assistance for Livestock Producers Passed by U.S. House

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES


USD – we got longer yesterday (9 LONGS vs 6 at start of the day) but will not overstay my welcome on any cheerleading market open; will watch USD Index as my leading indicator; its down as we type, but as long as it holds $82.35, the Dollar up, deflation of stocks/commodities to lower highs on bounces will continue to be on.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


SPAIN – IBEX was +2% into Draghi, dropped 7% intraday (not a typo) on Draghi, then rallies “off the lows” +1.8% this morning – add all that up and you get the point – this is a complete gong show. Q308 didn’t see country indices whip like that; it’s not the same; it’s much more globally interconnected this time - and expectations for bailouts are a lot higher.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – Asian stocks continue to move independent of these Western media stories; Nikkei and KOSPI dropped another -1.1% last night (both remain in Bearish Formations) and the Nikkei is down -16.6% now since March. That’s a lot – so you’ll see the central planning begging move to the BOJ now.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team