CHART DE LA NUIT: YELLOW LIGHT ON US REVPAR GROWTH

Cautious on domestic REVPAR

• REVPAR growth may have peaked in June 2012.  Based on our model, which projects sequential REVPAR growth on a seasonally-adjusted dollar basis, the 2^nd half of 2012 will show a sequential slowdown in YoY REVPAR growth.
• This model does not take into account macroeconomic issues and with the typical lodging lag, our estimates could prove aggressive
• Obviously, REITs have the most leverage but among the hotel brand companies, the more cyclically-sensitive lodgers (more hotel ownership) like Starwood and Hyatt are more exposed than a Marriott