• It's Here!

    Etf Pro

    Get the big financial market moves right, bullish or bearish with Hedgeye’s ETF Pro.

  • It's Here

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 24, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 25 points or -1.45% downside to 1331 and 0.41% upside to 1356. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - one

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - two

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - three

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/23 NYSE -1601
    • Down versus the prior day’s trading of -1007
  • VOLUME: on 07/23 NYSE 742.90
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -25.90%
  • VIX:  as of 07/23 was at 18.62
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 14.44%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -20.43%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/23 closed at 1.23
    • Down from the day prior at 1.99 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 36
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.43%
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.22
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook retail sales
  • 8:45am: Fed’s Bernanke speaks to the Children’s Defense Fund National Conference on early childhood education via prerecorded video
  • 10am: Markit US PMI Preliminary, July, est. 52 (prior 52.9)
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manuf Index, July, est. -1 (prior -3)
  • 10am: FHFA House Price Index M/m, May, est. 0.4% (prior 0.8%
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes due 2/15/36-5/15/42
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4-wk, 52-wk bills
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $35b 2-yr notes
  • 4:30pm: API inventories 

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate in session
    • Senate hearing on consumer impact of broadcast-cable disputes: CBS, TWC
    • Senate Judiciary holds hearing on super PACs, 2:30pm
    • Senate Energy holds hearing on natural gas and transportation, 10am
    • House Energy hears from Chairman Allison Macfarlane, three NRC commissioners at oversight hearing, 10am
    • House Financial Services’ Consumer Credit subcommittee hearing on legislation to create a federal charter for non- depository lenders, 10am
    • House Financial Services Insurance Subcommittee hearing on Dodd-Frank Act’s impact on insurance industry, 2pm
    • Senate Banking Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Protection holds hearing “Private Student Loans: Providing Flexibility and Opportunity to Borrowers;” Sallie Mae President Jack Remondi to testify, 2:30pm
    • NHTSA hearing on proposal to mandate anti-rollover technology in heavy-duty trucks, 10am
    • U.S. Chemical Safety Board releases preliminary findings from the investigation into BP’s 2010 Macondo well explosion in the Gulf of Mexico, 9:05am
    • International Swaps and Derivatives Association holds a Dodd-Frank Transaction Reporting Conference to review requirements’ impact on participants in the $648t global swaps market, 8:15am in New York
    • CFA exam level I & II results are e-mailed after 9am 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Germany pushes back after Moody’s lowers rating outlooks
  • Goldman Sachs, Bain Capital and Carlyle urged federal judge to dismiss lawsuit accusing largest investment banks, P/E firms of conspiring to rig bids on leveraged buyouts
  • Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said President Obama “absolutely committed” to letting tax cuts for wealthiest Americans expire as scheduled, in interview on “Charlie Rose” show yesterday
  • Apple lost Dusseldorf appeals court bid to ban sales of Samsung Electronics’s Galaxy 10.1N tablet computer
  • Rosneft starts talks with BP on buying stake in Russia venture
  • Compensation consultant to Best Buy’s board quit after company awarded more than 100 managers retention bonuses without tying them to performance
  • China manufacturing gauge shows slowdown may be ebbing
  • Spain’s borrowing costs rise at 3-mo. bill auction
  • Home values posted first Y/y increase since 2007 in 2Q as U.S. property market began to lift off bottom, Zillow said
  • Apple plans to send security manager to Black Hat USA 2012 to discuss iPhone, iPad, making first appearance at one of the hacking world’s largest conferences
  • U.S. Chemical Safety Board releases preliminary results from BP/Macondo investigation 

EARNINGS:

    • Spirit Airlines (SAVE)  5:45am, $0.47
    • RF Micro Devices (RFMD) 4pm, $0.01
    • Whirlpool (WHR) 6am, $1.69
    • Total System Services (TSS) 4pm, $0.32
    • EI du Pont de Nemours (DD) 6am, $1.46
    • FMC Technologies (FTI) 4pm, $0.48
    • Polaris Industries (PII) 6am, $0.91
    • Edwards Lifesciences (EW) 4pm, $0.65
    • Synovus Financial (SNV) 6am, $0.02
    • Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) 4pm , $0.68
    • Centene Corp (CNC) 6am, $(0.10)
    • Panera Bread (PNRA) 4pm, $1.43
    • NorthWestern (NWE) 6am, $0.29
    • Hatteras Financial (HTS)  4pm, $0.89
    • Potlatch (PCH) 6:45am, $0.09
    • Robert Half International (RHI) 4pm, $0.35
    • Rogers Communications (RCI/B CN) 6:47am, C$0.86
    • Norfolk Southern (NSC) 4:01pm, $1.53
    • Altria Group (MO) 6:58am, $0.57
    • Nabors Industries (NBR) 4:01pm, $0.37
    • Reynolds American (RAI) 6:58am, $0.76
    • Illumina (ILMN) 4:01pm, $0.37
    • EMC (EMC) 7am, $0.39
    • American Campus Com. (ACC) 4:01pm, $0.49
    • Simon Property Group (SPG) 7am, $1.81
    • Ezcorp (EZPW) 4:01pm, $0.62
    • Biogen Idec (BIIB) 7am, $1.56
    • Questcor Pharmaceuticals(QCOR) 4:02pm, $0.65
    • Lexmark International (LXK) 7am, $0.88
    • Thoratec (THOR)  4:02pm, $0.44
    • Penn National Gaming (PENN) 7am, $0.64
    • TripAdvisor (TRIP) 4:03pm, $0.41
    • Western Union (WU) 7am, $0.43
    • Broadcom (BRCM) 4:05pm, $0.67
    • Ametek (AME) 7am, $0.46
    • Netflix (NFLX) 4:05pm, $0.05
    • Regions Financial (RF) 7am, $0.14
    • Juniper Networks (JNPR) 4:05pm, $0.16
    • Husky Energy (HSE CN) 7am, $0.36
    • Tempur-Pedic International (TPX) 4:05pm, $0.38
    • Under Armour (UA) 7am, $0.05
    • Riverbed Technology (RVBD) 4:05pm, $0.21
    • Pentair (PNR) 7am, $0.80
    • Polycom (PLCM) 4:05pm, $0.20
    • Waters (WAT) 7am, $1.16
    • Aflac (AFL) 4:07pm, $1.61
    • AT&T (T) 7:25am, $0.63
    • Compuware (CPWR) 4:13pm, $0.07
    • Rockwell Collins (COL) 7:30am, $1.15
    • Aaron’s Inc (AAN) 4:15pm, $0.47
    • Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) 7:30am, $0.46
    • CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) 4:15pm, $0.71
    • Anixter International Inc (AXE) 7:30am, $1.50
    • International Game Tech. (IGT) 4:15pm, $0.29
    • FirstMerit (FMER) 7:30pm, $0.28
    • Altera Corp (ALTR) 4:15pm, $0.39
    • PrivateBancorp (PVTB) 7:30am, $0.16
    • Cymer (CYMI) 4:25pm, $0.04
    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) 7:30am, $1.91
    • WR Berkley (WRB) 4:29pm, $0.61
    • United Parcel Service (UPS) 7:45am, $1.17
    • Apple (AAPL) 4:30pm, $10.37
    • Ryder System (R) 7:55am, $0.93
    • Unisys (UIS) 4:30pm, $0.51
    • Illinois Tool Works (ITW) 8am, $1.10
    • Trustmark (TRMK) 4:30pm, $0.44
    • Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL) 8am, $0.97
    • Linear Technology (LLTC) 5pm, $0.45
    • Paccar (PCAR) 8am, $0.81
    • Ctrip.com (CTRP) 5pm, $0.20
    • Peabody Energy (BTU) 8am, $0.53
    • Range Resources (RRC) 5pm, $0.06
    • Six Flags Entertainment (SIX) 8am, $0.73
    • Bell Aliant (BA CN) 5pm, $0.43
    • Gentex (GNTX) 8am, $0.29
    • Acadia Realty Trust (AKR) 5pm, $0.24
    • Lennox International (LII) 8am, $0.96
    • Valmont Industries (VMI) 5:30pm , $2.16
    • Liberty Property Trust (LRY) 8am, $0.63
    • Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) 5:31pm, $0.06
    • Wabtec (WAB) 8:05am, $1.23
    • Suncor Energy (SU CN) After-mkt, $0.73
    • Avery Dennison (AVY) 8:30am, $0.54
    • Community Bank System (CBU) Aft-mkt, $0.50
    • Neogen (NEOG) 8:45am, $0.26
    • Newfield Exploration (NFX) Aft-mkt, $0.64
    • Carlisle (CSL) Bef-mkt, $1.28
    • UMB Financial (UMBF) Aft-mkt, $0.69
    • Jarden Corp (JAH) Bef-mkt, $1.10
    • Rock-Tenn (RKT) Aft-mkt, $1.02 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

OIL – bearish TREND; bullish TRADE; we’ll stay short it with a wall of TREND line resistance up at $108.37 Brent. The only thing that can get US and Chinese Growth back on track is a sustainable drop in Brent back below $90. With Qe drug addictions in this market’s whisper, good luck with that. 

  • Europe Heat Wave Wilting Corn Adds to U.S. Drought: Commodities
  • China Ousts U.S. in Canada Oil Market With Bid for Nexen: Energy
  • Investors Plow Cash Into Crops as Gold Jilted: Chart of the Day
  • Crude Trades Near One-Week Low on Worsening European Crisis
  • Copper Seen Rising as China Factory Contraction May Be Slowing
  • Corn, Soybeans Tumble on European Risk, Forecast for Some Rains
  • LNG Goes Extra 9,800 Miles as Europe Spurs Record Rates: Freight
  • Cocoa Climbs on Speculation El Nino Will Cut Output; Sugar Falls
  • U.S. Gas Futures Near Seven-Month High on Warm Weather Forecasts
  • U.K. Natural Gas for Today Advances as Norwegian Imports Decline
  • Illinois Corn, Soy Yields Drop From 2011, Doane Crop Tour Shows
  • South Korea Buys 6,000 Tons of High-Grade Aluminum in Tenders
  • Cocoa Usage Seen Falling as Processors Erode World Butter Glut
  • Copper Gain Seen as New-Home Sales Spur Demand: Chart of the Day
  • Gold Set to Decline in London as Europe Concern Bolsters Dollar
  • Morgan Stanley Increases 2012 U.S. Gas Price Forecast by 14% 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - four

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - five

EUROPEAN MARKETS


GERMANY – for once we actually agree with a Moody’s move on the margin; Germany’s #GrowthSlowing slope has accelerated on the downside in the last 6 weeks, and that matters. This morning’s PMI print of 43.3 for July in Germany is an absolute bomb (45.0 in June) – German GDP growth could easily go negative y/y in Q3 (consensus has it up +0.5%).

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - six

 

ASIAN MARKETS


HANG SENG – nasty 2-day 4% drop in a major leading indicator in our model that certainly trumps whatever flash there was in the made-up HSBC PMI print of 49.5; Hang Seng, like KOSPI, is now back into a Bearish Formation (both of these indexes have led the SP500 and German DAX since March, so watch them both closely – Asian Growth is Too Big to Bail).

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - seven

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - eight

The Hedgeye Macro Team