My problem here is that I really can’t get to a number as low as what COLM is guiding in the upcoming quarter. $0.04-$0.08 vs. $0.56 in ’08 and $0.71 in ‘07? I don’t think so. Even though sales are punk (as the backlog reported 3 months ago told us), inventories are about in line, FX pressure on the top line has the reverse effect on SG&A, COLM anniversaries 1H marketing send on product launches, and begins o benefit from recent corporate headcount cuts. I need to assume that revenue is down mid-high teens or that pricing is off disproportionately with current inventory levels to get to the assumptions that COLM threw out there.
I’m getting to near $0.25 for 1Q, and $2.75 for the year. My sense is that the Street will come in at about $0.10 and $2.10, respectively. If we see the stock head into the mid-high $20s, this might shape up to be one of my favorite names.