INTERNATIONAL BETTER THAN REPORTED

Analysts and the media community consistently reported a 27.3% plunge in December international visitation to Las Vegas through McCarran airport. I will concede that the international data coming out of the airport is very misleading. My junior analyst and crack researcher Rory Green spent time with people at the airport to fully understand the process.

Rather than a 27.3% decline, the number of international passengers through McCarran Airport actually increased 1.2%. Not exactly blistering growth but compared to what was communicated to the investment community, it might as well have been. The following chart details the actually year over year monthly change in international passengers in 2008.

I remain very negative on the near term and intermediate prospects for Las Vegas. The demise of the world economy will put increasing pressure on the overseas consumer’s ability to jump on a plane to visit Las Vegas and the dollar isn’t as cheap as it used to be. However, I do think the Street may be misreading two recent data points, including December’s international visitation number. As we wrote about in “NO NEW GATES NEEDED HERE”, McCarran’s total passenger traffic drop in December, while similar to November, should translate into a lower gaming revenue decline than November’s -16%.


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