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Eye on RL Promos

You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to know that Ralph Lauren’s business is suffering – i.e. Coach, Tiffany, Burberry, Guess!, Nordstrom, Sacks, etc… But I was pretty shocked to see that the online discount activity has changed very little versus this time last year. Better inventory management? Better control over .com business after year 1 of repo from GE? Or simply lack of read through in velocity of sales through discounted price points represented in this advertised sample?? Maybe all of the above.

We’re not making a bull call on RL’s business, but when I stress test the model in the worst way imaginable, I can’t get below $3.50ps. Realistically, I still think that a $4.00 number or better is in the cards. This is something to consider with the stock under 5x EBITDA.

Eye on Earnings Revisions

Lack of erosion in revision factor sent this group higher. Now we’ve got the lowest earnings expectations in at least 10 years on trough multiples. Be VERY selective.

These charts speak volumes. Yes, earnings revisions are bad, but the rate of change has stalled. The SECOND that this happened, the stocks ripped.

Even though we need to see revisions ease from here for another move in the group, now we’re looking at 12x earnings when the Street is looking for 12 month forward earnings to be down 4%. That’s the first time in over 10 years I can find a period where the Street is actually looking for down earnings. Pretty tempting at face value.

It’s near impossible to call the bottom here – as there are so many companies where that -4% decline will prove to be a pipe dream. But there are plenty of names that have been tossed aside, and I think will grow meaningfully better than expectations next year. RL, HIBB, UA, and PSS, to name a few.

US Market Performance: Week Ended 1/23/09...

Index Performance:

Week Ended 1/23/09:
DJ (2.5%), SP500 (-2.1%), Nasdaq (3.4%), Russell2000 (4.7%)

2009 Year To Date:
DJ (8.0%), SP500 (7.9%), Nasdaq (6.3%), Russell2000 (11.0%)

Keith R. McCullough
CEO / Chief Investment Officer

Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.57%

ASCA: LIBOR HELPS BUT NOT ENOUGH

We have ASCA pulling on every lever in their arsenal and, short of raising subordinated debt or amending its credit facility, we don’t see how the company avoids a covenant breach. The maximum senior leverage ratio allowed by the credit facility steps down from 5.25x in Q1 2009 to 5.00x in Q2. It is almost a mathematical certainty that ASCA will bust this covenant in Q2. Despite the incremental cash flow from LIBOR dropping to 1.12% this past week, and factoring in almost zero in maintenance capex in Q4 2008 and Q1 2009, we estimate the senior leverage ratio will reach 5.40x at the end of Q2.

It could get worse. ASCA will only barely escape the 5.25x in Q4 and will likely breach the covenant at the end of Q1, even before the step down. ASCA needs to act and act fast. The most likely course of action is a junk bond offering. Unfortunately, in today’s environment the interest rate will likely approach 20% versus ASCA’s current average borrowing rate of around 4.5%. Thus, on a $200 million subordinated debt offering, ASCA could incur an incremental $30 million in interest expense and a $0.30 hit to EPS.


ASCA could breach covenant in Q1 and most certainly in Q2

Not the Supply Chain Margin Flow I’d Expect

Despite anecdotes from athletic footwear/apparel brands and retailers about pricing pressures, we’ve not seen broad-based flow through of inflationary pressures disproportionately hit the US -- yet.

With so much capacity closing in Asia over the past 12 months (upwards of 1/3 of factories in China’s Pearl River Delta alone), my rather strong view was (and still is) that larger Asian manufacturers would begin to gain pricing power and push costs through the US supply chain (brands and retailers). Oddly enough, this has not proven to be the case as outlined by the chart below.

My sense is that the initial hit is enough to get lost in the smaller companies that do not show up in the sample of publicly traded companies. But it is a near-mathematical certainty that these pressures will work their way up the quality curve.

We can’t make any broad-based statements about who to own and not own in this context – other than to say that the key is to flag those companies that are managing through this proactively vs. reactively. On the proactive side, I like UA, NKE and HIBB. On the reactive side, it pretty much includes everyone else…


NO NEW GATES NEEDED HERE

McCarran Airport reported that the number of enplaned/deplaned passengers declined 14.1% in December 2008 versus 2007. This is the fourth consecutive double digit monthly decline, albeit slightly better than November’s 14.7% drop. November gaming revenues ultimately came in down 16%.

It’s tough to glean much positive out of this number but we will try. The comparison, particularly on slot revenue, is quite easy. The Strip casinos held way below normal on their slots last year in December. A normal hold percentage is around 7% while for December 2007 the percentage was only 5.9%. The table hold percentage was also low last year at 12.1% versus a normalized percentage of 13%.

So while we are forecasting a 19% drop in total gaming volume, the largest since 9/11, total revenue could fall by only an estimated 11%. Of course, this analysis assumes a normal hold percentage in December 2008, which is the best we can do since we don’t have inside information.

An 11% drop in revenues would not be good, but it could’ve been worse.

Another double digit drop in McCarran airport traffic
Revenues should look better than the airport data

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