THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 11, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 22 points or -0.78% downside to 1331 and 0.86% upside to 1353. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 07/10 NYSE -955
    • Down versus the prior day’s trading of -340
  • VOLUME: on 07/10 NYSE 727.59
    • Increase versus prior day’s trading of 11.99%
  • VIX: as of 07/10 was at 18.72
    • Increase versus most recent day’s trading of 4.12%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -20.00%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 07/10 closed at 1.69
    • Down from the day prior at 2.09 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 36
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.09%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.52%
    • Increase from prior day’s trading at 1.50%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.26
    • Down from prior day’s trading at 1.24 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates): 

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications (July 6), prior -6.7%
  • 8:30am: Trade balance (May), est. -$48.6b, prior -$50.1b
  • 8:30am: USDA monthly crop report
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories (May), est. 0.3%, prior 0.6%
  • 10:30am: DoE Inventories
  • 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes 

Government 

    • President Obama meets with Democratic leaders, closed press, 2:15pm
    • House, Senate in session
    • Senate Finance holds hearing on Medicare physician payments, with testimony from doctors, 10am
    • Senate Judiciary holds hearing on impact on competition of exclusion orders to enforce standard-essential patents, with Acting Asst Attorney General for Antitrust Division Joseph Wayland; FTC Commissioner Edith Ramirez, 9:30am
    • House Agriculture marks up farm bill, 10am
    • House Energy holds hearing on fraud in programs aimed at encouraging production, use of renewable fuels, 10am
    • House Financial Services panel holds hearing on impact of Dodd-Frank financial reforms on mortgage lending, 10am
    • House Small Business holds hearing on Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s Compliance, Safety, Accountability program, with small trucking company CEOs, 1pm
    • House may vote to repeal Obama’s health-care overhaul
    • GSA holds meeting of President’s Management Advisory Board on curbing improper payments to government contractors, 9am
    • Acting Commerce Secretary Rebecca Blank discusses U.S. competitiveness with business, public leaders in San Diego
    • Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood participates in conference call on development of U.S. high-speed rail, 12pm
    • House Small Business holds hearing on Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s Compliance, Safety, Accountability program, with small trucking company CEOs, 1pm 

WHAT TO WATCH:  

  • Apple joins Facebook, Google in U.S. talks on mobile-app privacy code
  • Burberry drops on 1Q sales miss; LVMH, luxury competitors fall
  • Chesapeake must pay >$100m over leases, Texas judge says
  • Trade deficit in U.S. probably narrowed on cheaper oil imports
  • Cliffs Natural Resources to sell Sonoma coal-mine stake
  • Sino-Forest to transfer assets to creditors, ends sale process
  • Australia cons. confidence rises to 5-mo. high on rate cuts
  • Spain raises some taxes to raise extra $80b over 2 1/2 yrs
  • Peregrine Financial files to liquidate in bankruptcy after CFTC sues alleging $200m shortfall in client funds
  • Xstrata sets Sept. 7 for vote on $26.4b Glencore bid
  • China car sales beat ests. for fourth straight month
  • Solar cos. plan to tap U.S. loans suspended since Solyndra
  • San Francisco to stop buying Apple computers after co. no longer participates in environmental certification program 

EARNINGS: 

    • Charles Schwab (SCHW) 8:45am, $0.18
    • Marriott Intl (MAR) 5pm, $0.42
    • Texas Industries (TXI) After-mkt, ($0.28) 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

  • Rhodium Glut Diminishing on Record Global Car Sales: Commodities
  • Coal King Even With Australia’s Costliest Carbon: Energy Markets
  • Sudan Crude Marooned Off Singapore Shows Trade as War Victim
  • Corn Climbs Before Report That May Show Smaller Harvest Forecast
  • Oil Rebounds From One-Week Low as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Decline
  • Gold Climbs Most in a Week as Slowing Global Growth Spurs Demand
  • Copper Seen Rising as Wen Indicates Spending May Climb in China
  • Food Prices Seen by OECD and FAO Rising in Next Decade on Oil
  • Rubber Drops as China Truck-Sales Data Highlight Demand Concern
  • Palm Oil Drops on Concern Reserves May Rise as Exports Decline
  • Drought-Fueled Corn Rally Squeezing ADM Profit: Chart of the Day
  • Fortress CEO Sees Pulp Rally or Going Private: Corporate Canada
  • Indonesia Seeks Resolution to Japan Talks Over Mineral Exports
  • Corn Rallies Ahead of USDA Crop Report
  • Bullish Sugar Risks to Persist Amid Brazil Backlog, Sucden Says
  • India Said to Cancel Sale of Wheat From Reserves to Glencore
  • Truck Sales Slumping for Third Month in China Cuts Rubber Demand 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

  


Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more

Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

read more

We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more