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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – July 5, 2012

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 15 points or -0.66% downside to 1365 and 0.44% upside to 1380.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - sector table

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 7/3 NYSE: +1773
    • Versus prior  trading day +1255
  • VOLUME: on 7/3 NYSE 466.46
    • Versus prior trading day 736.11
  • VIX:  on 7/5 closed at 16.66
    • Change versus most recent trading -0.8%
    • Year-to-date change of -28.8%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 7/3 closed at 1.40
    • Versus prior trading day 1.68                     

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

TREASURIES – if you asked the bond market for US Growth’s slope for the last 5 yrs, she’d have given you all you need to know over the intermediate-term TREND. Breaking down to 1.59% this morning, the 10yr is already down -5bps this wk and the Yield Spread (10s minus 2s) is hitting a new low of +129bps wide. Very bearish for the financials (and US growth assumptions).

 

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning: 37.85
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.08%
  • 10-Year yield: as of this morning 1.62
    • Versus prior trading day 1.63
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.33
    • Versus prior trading day 1.33

 

MACRO DATA POINTS

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, June 29 (prior -7.1%)
  • 7am: Bank of England announces interest rates
  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts Y/y, June (prior 66.7%)
  • 7:45am: ECB announces interest rates
  • 8am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, July (prior 46.1)
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, June, est. 100k (prior 133k)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, June 30, est. 385k (prior 386k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, July 1 (prior -36.1)
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manf. Composite, June, est. 53 (prior 53.7)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $4.5b-$5.5b notes in 8/15/2020 to 5/15/2022 range
  • 11am: U.S. Treasury to announce 3-, 10-, 30-yr auction sizes
  • 11am: DoE Inventories
  • TBA: ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/y, June (prior 1.7%)

 

GOVERNMENT

  • President Obama begins 2-day bus trip through Penn., Ohio
  • House, Senate in recess

 

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Volkswagen to buy remaining stake in Porsche for $5.6b
  • Retailers issue monthly sales reports
  • Bank of England, European Central Bank announce rates
  • Euro fell yday as German svcs dropped bef. ECB; copper slid
  • Canada Competition Bureau approves Maple’s TMX purchase
  • Japan regulator OKs merger of nation’s 2 biggest bourses
  • Exxon Mobil said to explore sale of German Esso gas stations
  • ‘Spider-Man’ generated $35m in ticket sales in opening day
  • Service Industries in U.S. Probably Expanded at Slower Pace
  • China Seen Entering Deflation, Credit Suisse Says
  • France Sells EU7.8b at Bond Auction, Yields Rise

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Milk Rallying as New Zealand-to-U.S. Weather Sours: Commodities
  • Copper Gains as Chinese, European Central Banks Reduce Rates
  • Brent Oil Rallies to 1-Month High as Statoil Set to Halt Output
  • Paris Wheat Jumps as Dry Weather Cuts Supply From U.S. to Russia
  • Food Prices Seen Climbing This Month by FAO After June Decline
  • Biggest Wheat Sale From India Since 2004 Seen Halting Rally
  • Gold Futures Drop in New York After ECB Cuts Interest Rates
  • Putin Gains From Iran Pain as Russian Oil Surges: Energy Markets
  • Baltic Exchange Seeks to Double Asian Membership as Trade Shifts
  • Japan Reduces Spot LNG Purchases as Prices Soar to Near a Record
  • Palm Oil Climbs as Much as 0.9% to a One-Month High
  • Ukraine Lowers Corn Crop Forecast 8% as Fields Scorched by Heat
  • Commodities Seen Advancing as Much as 10%: Technical Analysis
  • Oil Drops in New York on Europe, U.S. Data
  • Repsol Junk Prospect Risks Alaska to Angola Expansion: Energy
  • Ghana Expects to Invest $20 Billion in Oil With Tullow, Anadarko
  • Rubber Declines From Five-Week High as Oil’s Drop Reduces Appea

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - commodity

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - currency

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

SPAIN – the IBEX rallied from its crashing lows to -20% here from its YTD high; failing here would be a very bearish signal; the intermediate-term TREND line for the IBEX = 7141, so watch that and Germany’s (6567 DAX) closely today/tomorrow.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – Shanghai Comp down another -1.2% overnight, so it looks like American and European central planners are going to need a bigger bailout. Don’t forget China’s GDP slowdown report for July is on the 17th. By that time Global Growth and company earnings slowing will be what drives this market’s decision (volume should be real then too)

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

 

MIDDLE EAST (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Dubai’s Stocks Complete Biggest Weekly Gain Since March on Emaar
  • GCC Bank Yields Drop as Capital Can Withstand Risks: Arab Credit
  • REITs at Records on Payouts Set to Beat Stocks: Islamic Finance
  • Dubai Duty Free Gets $1.75 Billion in 6-Year Syndicated Loan
  • Qatar National Bank Is Set for Highest Close Since May on Profit
  • Emaar Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Five Months: Dubai Mover
  • Qatar Said to Start Investor Meetings July 9 for Sukuk Sale
  • Iran Oil Tankers Signal China in Sign Storage May Be Concluding
  • No Apology Needed as Contraction Boosts Bonds: Turkey Credit
  • Egypt Pound Set for First Weekly Gain in Five; Dollar Bonds Gain
  • Brent Oil Exceeding $100 a Barrel ‘Sustainable,’ Mirae Says
  • Wall Street Bank Investors in Dark on Liability of Libor Probes

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

The Hedgeye Macro Team